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odonnellm66 724 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Jan 17, 2012
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  • The probability of GS squeezing through tonight's game 6 in Oklahoma is 35% with GS being a 2.5 point spread underdog. I'll still bet on the Warriors. Should GS win tonight's game, they have better than an 80% chance of winning the Western Conference finals at home in a game 7.

    The probability of ZNGA common stock breaking above $2.75 between now and the second coming of Christ is less than 3%. The stock has completely stalled at the $2.60 price level and volume is in sharp decline. The absolutely miserable volume we do witness is merely the computers trading with each other and legitimate retail demand is entirely absent. ZNGA has zero fundamentals and the fads generated by 1600 highly compensated techies fail to produce profits. Those techies will soon be applying for positions in a welfare to work program. It will be a rather rude awakening for the employees and the ZNGA shareholders as the stock collapses toward the $1.50 level.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It appears 2016 is the year for musicians to be dropping like flies as one more bites the dust, and Megadeth drummer, Nick Menza, is dead at a young 51. I'm no fan of Metal, but these boys were at least proficient players with actual instruments. If only ZNGA would follow suit and just go away. Not to worry. I'm reading the megadeth crosses on the long term ZNGA chart, and this junk stock should be trading at 150 pennies by the close of the year. We should get a new round of CEO's and CFO's by then. The only face which remains the same at the ZNGA Brain Trust is the Wizard of Oz, Mark Pinky.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When you see this junk stock trade today between the close parameters of $2.53 and $2.55, more or less flatlining within those confines, you immediately realize that at least 70% of the anemic volume consists of computers trading with each other. Legitimate retail demand is missing from the equation, a rather dangerous condition. If you happen to be a fan of Stanley Kubrick, you will recall Hal the computer, and that very famous line, "I'm sorry Dave, I can't do that." Here's my point. Once some very serious selling enters our markets, and we are very close to that point, the downtrend will be much exacerbated by computer trade programs. It likely reaches such levels of chaos that the government shuts down Wall Street for a cooling off period. Keep in mind that at today's ZNGA price despite much bloodletting over the past years, still carries a premium of well over $1 billion over its supposed liquidation value. Yes Dorothy, ZNGA still has plenty of downside risk (40%), and the lack of liquidity in the 1 billion share float is especially troublesome. That will be quickly revealed when just a single major player attempts to empty the garbage.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The boys in the options pits would like to see this junk stock close at or near the active $2.50 strike price tomorrow with both the puts and calls expiring nearly worthless, but I somehow feel the broad averages are in for a bout of heavy selling, and thus cooperation will be lacking. In the unlikely event that $2.50 technical support holds on Friday, it won't next week. A more urgent question is how ZNGA will perform in a severe market rout when even quality companies succumb, and we are on the cusp of such an event. Things will get particularly ugly for ZNGA whose only products are ephemeral fads which continue to lose money. I remain absolutely baffled as to what those 1700 pampered techies do on any given "work" day at the ZNGA Brain Trust, but I do know that bloated overhead will suck the much touted cash assets dry until there is no more.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Make short term market predictions at your own peril, but something feels wrong in the gut, and at times, I don't hesitate to trade with a gut feeling. It was further reinforced by the fact that the indexes of late have been whipsawing back and forth to the tune of 200 points, but actually accomplishing nothing. Today, we completely stalled. First you stall, and then comes the tailspin. The VIX is also signaling something amiss. Let's get ready to rumble.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • These ZNGA roadkill bounces--blatant penny stock manipulation really--are only for very adept day traders or made men in the Kosher Nostra. If you are neither of these groups, I suggest you are way out of your league and sitting at the wrong poker table. It comes as no great surprise that ZNGA quickly succumbed after a couple days of leivitation (partly due to ZNGA buying its own shares) because this junk company has zero fundamentals and loses money each and every day the doors remain open. ZNGA roadkill bounces consistently lack in volume follow through, a critical component if any stock is indeed in a recovery phase. Anyone who has taken a buy and hold position in this travesty of fads has lost big money. Remember the green salad days when ZNGA ever so briefly held an absurd market cap greater than that of Alcoa? The delusional ZNGA longs have been on the highway to hell since then and billions (yes, billions) have been vaporized over this fraud. ZNGA: Garbage in and garbage out.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 by odonnellm66 May 16, 2016 10:04 PM Flag

    Read the front cover article of the current issue of Time Magazine, titled, "Capitalism."
    I don't generally find much of value in Time, but this piece is quite good.
    Is finance becoming our sole industry?
    Or the likes of ZNGA?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • There were some strong sell orders at the open causing the immediate decline to $2.39. Mark Pinky then picked up the bat phone and made an immediate call to the latest CFO, whose name I don't recall. An order was issued. "Buy our company shares now! If no one else wants ZNGA common stock, we are the buyer of last resort. We must provide a false sense of demand for the stock to prevent further decline."
    Now ask yourself these questions:
    1. Is the company purchase of their own shares efficient use of capital?
    2. Without these purchases, where would ZNGA have closed today?
    3. Is it long term sustainable for ZNGA to provide a floor beneath the selling?
    4. Who is the ultimate owner of the capital used to purchase today's shares?
    5. Was any of the money raised from the scam $600 million secondary offering used to buy shares?
    6. Did Mark Pinky put his own capital at risk?
    7. Will ZNGA lose money on these share purchases over the long run?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • However, volume has not stalled. It is in a major tailspin and that's a big warning sign. We couldn't even manage a four million share session last Friday. What we have is a technical discrepancy between price and volume (a problem for the markets as a whole), and such discrepancies are always resolved. Clearly, the $2.50 price level, also where you also find the ZNGA options activity, is key technical support. In light of the volume crash, I don't see $2.50 holding for long. It is also worth noting that SPY volume is rising from its recent lethargy, but only on down sessions, so the path of least resistance in the broad averages is down. I anticipate a big rise in volatility and volume next week. Madcap gamblers--all of you--should feel free to take positions in FAZ, VIX, and the very risky TVIX. The greedy always lose with these positions over time because of their nasty resetting properties, so you must sell too early and never regret coins left on the table. A more conservative approach is to short the SPY, turn the computer off, and go on a long road trip.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • While we seriously debate which bathroom a girl in a boy's body should use, we shelve more pressing matters, such as the fact that the nation's massive debt and unfunded liabilities are growing at exponential rates while our stock and bond markets are in their final hurrahs. We appear to have become a citizenry force fed on distractions of the banal and the mundane, and hence the supposed popularity of the idiocy cranked out by the ZNGA Brain Trust. Give us any form of diversion-- Willy Wonka or what have you-- anything but the harsh truth of our predicament. I suggest that broad social trends as dictated by the rot a population will obsess on while there is smoke in the kitchen have a high predictive value for a stock trader. That's why an intelligent speculator would take note that the leading news story of late is the great transgender smokescreen. This myth, the same type of bait and switch utilized in the marketing of the ZNGA Brain Trust, ends in disaster. You might also ask where these "pressing controversies" originate from. Who are the powers feeding the sheep this rubbish? Just a few years ago, transgender bathrooms were no issue at all, and suddenly, it is all the rage. Now study the decline and fall of the Roman Empire.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Now let us consider the unthinkable-- that is, Donald Trump as the next President. How could such a scenario evolve? A stock and bond crash before the election would very much assist Trump's run for the White House and only hamper Hillary Clinton's unbridled ambitions. Trump's rhetoric has the potential to unnerve the world US Treasury market, as he rightly points out that this massive level of debt can never be fully repaid. Buffoon though he be, Trump can draw attention to certain structural flaws in our economy (dirty little secrets), primarily that this massive bull market, now long in teeth, runs on funny money, and more funny money can be implemented to pay down holders of US government paper, which of course leads to a crash in the value of the US dollar. These thoughts all lead me back to that most important and rather thick novel by Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace. Tolstoy interpreted history as a set of events which from time to time take on lives of their own and suddenly accelerate. Certain figures arrive on the scene in the midst of turmoil, and in Tolstoy's case, it was Napoleon. Tolstoy saw no intrinsic merit or gifted vision in Napoleon. He was merely at the right place at a critical historical juncture where all the chess men were properly lined up. The chess men line up as we speak, and Trump can be our own version of Napoleon. Or is it Adolf Hitler? By the way, Hitler had the initial support of a German population facing very hard times. My point is that history, just like the economy and stock markets, runs in cycles. The world as you know it is about to change, and it will do so at lightening speed. It will be fascinating, but quite painful for many. You may now return to your ZNGA fantasies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This latest episode was probably launched by being stuck at a snail's pace on the Oakland Bay Bridge in the horrendous traffic. Where the hell are all these people going and is this really any proper way to live? What's the point of this stress inducing mess? I really ought to be in the remote deserts of southern Utah. San Francisco was the city of my youth, and it suddenly dawned on me that the hour glass now dwindles, and 90% of these techies weren't even shaving ten years ago. No, this ain't no country for old men. It is completely a young man's game. So, there was this prevailing feeling of emptiness which can only be sated by shorting more blocks of the ZNGA Brain Trust. Here, you must be quite careful, as a gifted stock trader is ever aware of his own organic brain chemistry which is dictated to a great extent by primordial DNA. You can also debate that age old question: Was it nature or nurture? A vision of extreme darkness or extreme optimism will of necessity taint your stock trades, and it is no easy task to approach any company with a high degree of objectivity, which much explains my minor obsession with volume and numbers in general, which are non-emotional quotients. The truth is generally found at a midrange point between bipolar opposites, the yin and yang of dualism. While fully aware of my psychological bias, I do still maintain that ZNGA remains nothing more than a passing fad headed to the junk yard once the cash assets are fully depleted. Consistent with this view of gloom, I reiterate that the broad averages are also headed for a fall of historic proportions this year. Fortunes will soon be made on the short side of the market. Maybe it is finally time to get 100% liquid, get rid of all material belongings, and relocate to mountain highlands of Chiang Mai. Go out like a supernova.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I can therefore speak with some authority in my analysis of the ZNGA Brain Trust, and I freely share my wealth of knowledge on this pink sheet stock as a sort of service to humanity. Brothers and Sisters of Delusion, I now warn that if you have been parlaying your dwindling capital into this latest ZNGA roadkill bounce, you must liquidate all shares at tomorrow's open, or preferably pre-market. Last Friday's volume in ZNGA trading fell of a cliff--a paltry 7.6 million shares changed hands-- and this is one huge warning sign of the proverbial pump and dump. When Mark Pinky's lips are moving, or those of his surrogates such as the most recent puppet CEO, you must assume the words are one massive tall tale. That's why you rely on volume as a key stock indicator, and not dwell a world of false facades, green bud smokescreens, hyped image, and Willy Wonka wet dreams. In the midst these mirages, volume doesn't lie, and strongly indicates that the tribal syndicate will be selling come Monday morning. Theirs is the oldest sham in the stock universe and the substantial reward is a quick return of 10% or more from a bit of push and shove. Of course, this confidence game is only successful with the full cooperation of the cattle herd--folks like yourselves--so watch out for the electric prod. One more supreme fantasy is that anyone will pay a substantial premium to absorb the ZNGA Brain Trust. Its most valuable asset is a building--brick and mortar-- not intellectual property or a bland menu of fads.
    Thus sprach Zngathustra.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The junk bond market staged a nice recovery off of its 52 week lows over recent months, and that reflex bounce has now run its course. The chart of HYG, the largest junk bond fund in this country, adequately summarizes this heavenly trajectory. The bounce, much like ZNGA, was not however grounded in fundamentals, but a momentum trade, and thus has no staying power. I mildly suggest to you that high yield bonds are the sleeping tiger in our markets, and the dangers (a proper appreciation of downside risk) are widely ignored. Many of these junk bonds change hands infrequently--the theory being to hold to maturity--so there is no accurate pricing until someone attempts to unload, and again, there is an eerie similarity to the way ZNGA trades. Of course, liquidity is the key consideration, and it has yet to be severely tested in the high yield market. It has yet to be tested with ZNGA. Suffice to say, defaults are once again rearing their ugly heads in the junk bond market. The coming stock decline will be precipitated by one catalyst or another, and I freely admit I cannot precisely name the straw which breaks the camel's back. It is at least quite plausible that rotten debt in free fall will unleash torrents of selling in stocks. Gold and silver might also be currently on the rise as a response to risks in junk debt. Will it be junk bonds or junk stocks like ZNGA? Gentlemen, pick your poison. If the junk bond market holds any curiosity, read everything written by Jeff Gundlach, interestingly enough, a rock n roller in his youth. He's quite sharp and his current market views are a bit frightening. Meanwhile, the stock universe muddles on. Until it doesn't, which is soon enough.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • You might ask why.
    1. Both traditionally function as a hedge against a large decline in the stock and bond indexes.
    2. More importantly, they signal a resurgence of currency wars.
    It is premature to announce a renewed bull market in the barbarous relics, but I would much rather own straight physical silver than paper shares in the ZNGA Brain Trust. Never forget, this penny stock operation has an astounding 1 billion share float.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • A volume confirmation is absolutely essential if this latest reincarnation is to believed. It is nowhere to be found. We have witnessed the pump lasting a few hours, and ZNGA has done this countless times in its rather sordid history. Next week comes the dump.
    Observing the broad averages as a whole, I would also comment that we have increased volatility, but not built on a foundation of strong volume. Again , refer back to the SPY. This type of action, a market discrepancy grounded in schizophrenia, is always resolved over time, and not in a positive manner.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The Wall Street article here on Yahoo Finance says so, and I am in complete agreement. I do remain slightly puzzled by the celebratory tone on this message board post the no profit report, though not completely surprised by one more roadkill bounce in the price of the common stock. Do you express glee that ZNGA still cannot post a P/E ratio? Are you all wet and in a lathered frenzy that paying users still remain in sharp decline? No, all the excitement is over the announcement (and only if you accept ZNGA's highly creative accounting) that the company didn't lose as much money as many expected. This is one very strange party, and once the punch bowl runs dry by the end of today's session, profit taking by the Kosher Nostra ensues, and the ephemeral gains are all given back in short order. Repeat after me:

    The only way to make money from a ZNGA roadkill bounce is to sell too early.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Today's very minor setback in the averages should come as no great surprise, as anemic volume has been ringing loudly for weeks, and especially in yesterday's session. The trend is quite clear. We now have high volume days only when the indexes are subject to selling, and this of course indicates the future path of least resistance is down, and I opine that the decline will be substantial, no mere 10% correction. A traditional and healthy 10% correction will be a walk in the park compared to the dark vision I fully expect to unfold. I leave the precise market timing to those more gifted in reading tea leaves, but it does occur this calendar year. If one is to apply a strict volume approach to ZNGA, the news is particularly dire. Interest and legitimate demand (not computers swapping shares with each other) for this hype stock is drying up at a rapid clip. There comes a point when the big boys, the so-called professionals, throw in the towel on this rubbish. If any single entity attempts to unload a large block of ZNGA common stock, the inherently poor liquidity comes to bear on the shares like a sledgehammer. FB has strong liquidity. ZNGA does not. Selling begets more selling, and once the herd is frightened, they want out at any price. This could happen sooner than most think, and certainly, this week's lack of earnings report will be a major test, especially if the broad averages
    remain in decline.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I cant' go with that.
    No can do.
    Decline pending, and likely this week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I can't, at least from memory. Who are these people?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FB
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