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odonnellm66 403 posts  |  Last Activity: 18 hours ago Member since: Jan 17, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Shorting Groupon Here

    by sfjlegends 18 hours ago
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 18 hours ago Flag

    I have no particular feel for GRPN, but this market is not in the mood for even the slightest disappointment and also wants to sell on the supposed good news as demonstrated by FB. Roll the dice on this one Legend and I wish you success.

  • Add Farmville to this list:
    1. Flagpole Sitting
    2. Tramp Stamps--tattoos
    3. Pet Rocks
    4. Atkins Diet
    5. Tulips
    6. Have a Nice Day Stickers
    7. Lava Lamps
    8. Baby on Board
    9. Mood Rings

    Summary: ZNGA could disappear tomorrow and few would notice except the chronic gaming addicts which represent less than 3% of all users. ZNGA is currently valued at $2.12 billion, still much higher than its supposed cash base. It will come crashing down to reality, and that reality is that in the world of fads, its freemium revenue model is a complete and utter failure. Please tell me, where's the beef? I see virtual corn.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Keep in mind GLUU had actual earnings, missing at the ZNGA Brain Trust, and was still severely punished.
    Watch for a huge burst in ZNGA volume on November 6 and a corresponding price adjustment.
    You reply, "Expectations are already so low for this stock. It will rally on the slightest inkling of profit."
    You are mistaken. There remains a minimum of 20% downside risk.
    Watch for cash erosion.
    Watch for creative accounting.
    Watch for some smoke screen announcement to divert attention from horrible numbers.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • After all, America is now the Facebook economy.
    We long ago shipped our manufacturing base to China.
    In exchange for Farmville, Version 2.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Yes Dorothy, volume precedes price with very high mathematical probability.
    And we have more declines to come.
    Catch the falling knife if you can.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Rumor is circulating that he is also attending Gamblers Anonymous meetings.
    Let us all pray that his financial health is quickly restored.

    In response to this breaking story, ZNGA declined six cents, moving in the direction of $1.99.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Odd and perhaps frightening indeed, but as goes FB, so goes the stock market.
    I can remember a period when GM and IBM were the key bellwether stocks.
    What does this tell you about how our economy has evolved?
    So please give me your after hours price projections on FB.

    PS: SFlegend: Please post another selfie on your Facebook account. Yes, in full drag with the riding crop.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Oct 28, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    In so many ways, we are in unknown territory, as this grand Federal Reserve experiment has never been attempted before, certainly not on such a scale. Obviously, after the demise of Lehman and Bear Stearns, the threat of a deflationary contagion was very real, and loose monetary policy made much sense at that time. However, we are five plus years down the road in a supposed sustainable recovery, so when, if ever, are the money spigots turned off? The downtrend in copper, lumber, cement, and oil is troubling to say the least, as it hints that despite trillions in stimuli, deflation forces have not been erased. It looks increasingly possible that the Federal Reserve has only forestalled the inevitable pain, and they bought time, not much more. Interests rates cannot fall below zero, and we are pretty much at that point. I am of the opinion that the current market is like a chronic alcoholic. Don't you dare remove the punch bowl, or else. Housing has already peaked. The final holdout of deflation will be stocks, and we are at a key inflection point at this very moment. Selling resumes shortly and continues through November, just as ZNGA releases horrible numbers. Prepare for shock and awe. Longer term, despite current ephemeral strength, the US dollar is in for big trouble.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I say profits no longer matter in the New Techie Economy.
    My opinion is slowly changing on ZNGA common stock.
    I am just beginning to see the light.
    These asinine games are now central to American culture.
    Definitely a major growth industry.
    Books and literature are dead concepts.
    Music with melody and creative lyrics is also dead.
    Intelligent conversation has been dead for ages.
    Just the other day I was riding the Muni bus.
    90% of the passengers were glued to their touchscreens on Farmville.
    The anecdotal evidence is stunning.
    I must be a dinosaur with a flip phone in this Brave New World.
    Welcome to the byte society.
    In light of this epiphany, I will be loading up on ZNGA.
    AMZN, TWTR, and YELP also.
    I love the smell of easy money.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • However, one critical component is missing, namely volume. It's 9:30 AM in California, and ZNGA hasn't even traded 2 million shares. The computerized trading programs are on the sidelines, and perhaps for good reason. Doesn't QE III end tomorrow or is it stimulus ad infinitum? I suspect the smarter members of the Federal Reserve would like to engineer a slow orderly decline in the equity markets, full knowing that Wall Street lives and breathes on funny money, and the central bank has created one massive bubble. Unfortunately, it won't be an orderly decline, and we remain in crash territory. The swift decline of a few weeks back is already distant memory and complacency now reigns once again. The mantra remains, "Buy each and every dip." This exact behavior was exhibited in 1929 in the first stages of the decline. That didn't turn out so well.

    Summary: There's a high chance selling is about to resume. ZNGA attempted to reschedule the lack of earnings report for calmer markets. Let us see how this strategy works out. I say it doesn't.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This market and ZNGA will swoon without the Fed pump.
    The greatest ponzi scheme in the history of American finance.
    Nothing but a wealth transfer from the working man to the rich.
    You may now return to Farmville, Version 2, A country Escape.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • When does the ZNGA death spiral resume?
    Watch SPY volume, a key indicator.
    It's in the doldrums.
    Danger signal.
    The calm before the storm.
    $1.99 ZNGA coming soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This is a stroke of brilliance from Dr. Don, and the timing couldn't be better with the next in a long string of lack of earnings reports due on November 6. I suspect ZNGA will climb above $2.75 based on this breaking news. I hereby issue a level ten buy signal. Make full use of margin to purchase ZNGA common at these K Mart prices.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • When asked for comment, Dr. Don stated,
    "Which has a nicer ring? $2.37 or $23.70? It has always been my primary goal to levitate ZNGA from the pink sheet death zone by moving decimal places. It ain't coming from earnings. Next question please."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Highlights of the report:
    1. Dr. Don the Magician's obscene compensation package in excess of $50 million.
    2. The cost of operations exceeds revenue by a wide margin.
    3. The company's line of "products" are all fads, with shelf lives equivalent to a loaf of Wonder Bread.
    4. The dreaded Zngbola virus has been found in the Farmville men's urinal.
    5. Mark Pinus' Pacific Heights mansion has not sold, and new revenue is required to replace dwindling cash.
    6. A bloated work force of 2000 plus who mostly play Candy Crush while at "work."
    7. Dr. Don has revealed he suffers from a chronic condition of Pinus Envy, and seeking treatment.
    8. 98% of all active users hold EBT cards in freemium mode.
    9. New Age accounting practices where alchemy converts losses to profits.
    10.Suspicious delay in the lack of earnings report.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Oct 24, 2014 2:20 PM Flag

    OK, but son, that ain't the way to have fun. Pick a theme, stay with it (prudent stop losses in place of course),and ride it out, just as the intelligent shorts have done with ZNGA to enormous success. Day traders mostly exhibit no patience, and I have yet to meet a wealthy one. I can't day trade worth a damn. Like the Indian casinos, for the day traders it's all about the action with no focus on the big picture. Identify the primary trend, and ride it cowboy, always unconcerned about the inevitable roadkill bounces which don't trigger your stop loss parameters. For example, the primary trend of Amazon is still down, and down big time, just as it is with ZNGA. Why cover now on Amazon? The fun has only just begun, especially in the event of a large decline in the major averages, which is coming. Remain calm and patient even on the days the market disagrees with your long term perception.

  • This makes perfect sense to me in terms of synergy. Both companies function as non-profit organizations and only seek to improve the world. Just imagine free Farmville gaming cards with each Amazon order. Of course, there will be free two day shipping.
    Never forget Mark Pinus' famous words:
    "I want to change the world."
    I love idealism, especially with a price execution of $13-.
    Am I a bit too cynical?
    It paid off well with this rubbish stock.

    And Legend: Why don't you cop up to the fact that you have been long AMZN all along and admit your failure. You were caught with your pants down once again. How much money from the family trust have you lost thus far? Short some ZNGA now and you can recoup some of the losses.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Malinvestments, and that's all ZNGA is in the final analysis, are fostered by easy money policies. Zero percentage interest rates and massive money printing encourage misallocation of capital and speculation in non-productive assets and firms. The real estate bubble was misdirection of capital, and we saw how that turned out. If one analyzes ZNGA's so-called product, it is a farce, a joke perpetrated on the sheep, and with no utility whatsoever except the dumbing down of an entire citizenry. Yet ZNGA had at one time in its high flying days a market cap greater than Alcoa, which was plainly absurd, and thus we experienced the rather severe flogging from $15-. It was all highly predictable to that most endangered and rare of species, the value (not momentum) investor. ZNGA at these "bargain basement" prices still carries a minimum $1 billion premium over its intrinsic worth, essentially the dwindling cash and the value of its building. I'm going to question the assigned good faith value and the value of its intellectual property, since the business model (game porn) is a dismal failure.. If the Federal Reserve decides to no longer prop up Wall Street, a distinct possibility, capital then flees to more productive uses, and ZNGA turns to dust. ZNGA downside risk still looms large. Watch for the swan song after the lack of earnings report on November 6.

    Summary: $1.99 skewered dog meat, and possibly much worse. Watch for creative accounting.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Oct 24, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    To big to fail:
    1. Lehman Brothers
    2. Bear Stearns
    3. Washington Mutual
    4. Enron
    5. Merrill Lynch (shotgun marriage to BofA, but fundamentally bankrupt)
    6. AIG (saved with taxpayer money)
    7. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac--on life support
    8. AIG--taxpayer bailout
    9. Arthur Andersen--gone--toast

    Do you for a moment think the federal government would deem it necessary to save AMZN as indispensable to the American economy? I must try a bit of your strawberry flavored vodka.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Oct 24, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    You've been enamored with AMZN since the days of yore, and I consistently warned of this blind puppy love. From a 52 week hallucinogenic high of $408, it will still break $200-. It is an excellent long term short, but just like ZNGA, you must be willing to ride out all the roadkill bounces, and there will be many. Amazon delusion still remains very much in force, because the stock should be down a minimum of $40- this morning, and obviously, it is not. How many Fire Phones are sitting on the shelves gathering dust? That device, weak in performance, was merely a diversion tactic to get the sheep to join the AMZN ecosystem, and it has failed miserably. Growing revenue doesn't mean jack to me if quarter after quarter, losses are reported. Ditto ZNGA. A PE of 738 is plainly absurd and downside risk is huge especially when the entire globe reenters recession and the consumer decides he has enough things. The material world is in for one rude awakening. Legend, come to Jesus now.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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