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odonnellm66 288 posts  |  Last Activity: 17 hours ago Member since: Jan 17, 2012
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  • Take your rose colored glasses off and put the green herb down before confronting yourself with that uncomfortable question. Now consider what happens to ZNGA when the S&P 500 is off 15% or more. Remember, we are talking about a speculative junk stock where the cost of operations exceeds revenue, and by a wide margin. Are more layoffs coming for the highly compensated techies at the ZNGA Brain Trust? You can take that as a virtual given. ZNGA: The gift which keeps on taking. Beware of a liquidity crisis in ZNGA common stock. By the way, a Greek solution could still prove ephemeral and we can anticipate more troubles in China. Thus spoke Zngathustra.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Yesterday's levitation in the SPY is at least questionable since Germany is still not prepared to toss more money down this rat hole. Greece has now spiraled down into a virtual state of economic depression, so any numbers used even six weeks ago before the bank runs are no longer valid. For those playing the recovery in the SPY, I can only say there is zero room for error at this juncture. A complete Greekexit remains quite feasible in my view despite a favorable response from the French. Again, it goes back to Germany, and it is Merkel who runs this Schauspiel. If there is any disappointment in the so-called Greek solution over this weekend, we are looking at heavy selling pressure next week. I would furthermore state that China's one party system may not be able to save its stock market bubble, trading halts and threat of arrest for short traders aside. China's greatest fear is social unrest resulting from a catastrophic market rout. Quite possibly, we have a perfect storm brewing at this moment.. Market risk is at unprecedented levels, margin debt off the charts, and market psychology has been trained to buy every dip for more than five years. That market strategy, remarkably successful in the past, now likely proves disastrous.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    hummmmmm

    by option_splat Jul 9, 2015 5:46 PM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Jul 9, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    If you really understood the concept of shorting a stock, you would immediately grasp that the shorts must repurchase the stock in order to cover, thus at least momentarily stabilizing a stock in a tailspin. This week's ZNGA decline had nothing to do with short selling. You are way out in left field. The decline is classical economics-- free price discovery at its finest hour. Quite simply, there are more willing sellers at any given price than avid buyers. We will see more of this trend. All the way to $1.99. Or even lower.

  • This explains the volume burst--big players. They know there is no way to offload this loser all at once, and again this goes back to extremely poor liquidity. Otherwise, we see 50 million shares trying to escape this comedy of errors. Just wait until the sheep on this board attempt to dump this dog when they finally throw in the towel. Retail (bag holders) always sells last. The likes of Golden Sacks (The Kosher Nostra) sell first. $2.50 skewered dog meat coming quickly. Next major stop, and then still lower. It is also worth noting that we had a key reversal in the SPY That's even scarier. We face heavy selling in the next week, perhaps as soon as tomorrow's session.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I am not especially fond of chart reading and prefer to focus on a combination of tarot cards and human psychology. Robert Precther has more or less disappeared from the scene, but he was always one of my favorite pundits. I especially enjoyed how he used social trends (literature is dead, touchscreen obsession, and garbage music anyone?) to predict stock market moves. Of course, I always appreciated Alan Abelson's cynicism, wit, and the quality of his writing, but he's now dead. But back to head and shoulders. If you believe in such things, then a 90 day ZNGA chart says that we break the April low of $2.45. Sooner than later.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Fortunately, it's once again Hot Mess Saturday at The Stud in San Francisco. 399 9'th Street. Mark Pincus promises to be on hand. Prepare now for the full facial money shot, and what a sticky gooey mess it shall be.
    See how the SPY fades just as predicted. This is a bad omen for tomorrow's open. Yes, more spanking to come, just the way you like it. Next stop for ZNGA is $2.50. We should be there next week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • By the way, I am not a pure technician, but I consider this type of analysis just one more tool in the kit. I do suggest that if the SPY closes near the low of the day, and quite possibly in negative territory, we have much more selling ahead. Next week is key. What happens to a junk stock like ZNGA when the averages are under heavy selling pressure? Since it has no earnings, and never has since the sham IPO, it will be turned into stardust. You reply, "AMZN also doesn't earn a dime, and has no earnings, and no P/E ratio just like ZNGA, so why worry? We are forward thinkers. Silly games are the future since no one reads books anymore. ZNGA is the new drug." ...............Hmmmmmm.........

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Day to day price movements are actually of no concern to me--not with ZNGA and not with the Fed pumped up broad averages. The patient sort I am, I only focus on the primary trend, which is down. Under normal circumstances, one watches Hal and his byte buddies enter the field of play for the last 20 minutes of the trading session--push, shove, and front load. The SPY reflex bounce begins to fade right now, so my stab in the dark says ZNGA closes lower. The volume remains extremely suspicious as the stock treads water. The real excitement is ahead of us. It will be fascinating to watch this house of card crumble. Yes, another day of spanking for the delusional ZNGA longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Mike: It's fine if you attempt to entertain the madding crowd on the ZNGA message board even though they are a rather glum lot, but we want you to use more words with three syllables or more, preferably with Latin roots. Your mission is to obfuscate the matter at hand, namely, the ongoing ZNGA death spiral. Muddy the waters. Sow more doubt and dissension. If ppjosh gets rattled, as he is today, you are doing your job correctly. Your ignore ratings look excellent by the way. Our hedge fund out here in Minnewaukan on the Little Prairie smells blood with this pathetic stock, and today's burst in volume can only mean that something is seriously amiss at the ZNGA Brain Trust. They are frantically attempting through alchemy to magically transform losses into profits, and there is that little report due in just a few weeks. Don't forget to mention that many of the 1600 techies still idling away at the ZNGA Brain Trust will soon be at the fast food window or shaking hands at Wall Mart. Also post a link with mug shots of Mark Pincus. Mike, we paid all your bar tabs at the 21 Club once again, but can't you slow down this freight train? The fluidity of your prose is simply better when you are not recovering from a runner. Our fate is now in your hands. We have bet the entire farm on $1.99 ZNGA. Now get back to posting more dribble. Oh yes, avoid SFJLegend. He's a viper in disguise.
    Yours,
    F.Scott O'Rothschild
    Vulture Capital Management

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • He was under a bit of pressure from that disastrous trade in MNKD (down again today) and the subsequent margin calls, but I loaned him a few bucks. I do appreciate a manly man with firm biceps and a good putter swing who uses leverage, but Legend has a way of taking things to great extremes. He does the same thing with kiwi daiquiris, and I did send him a copy of the 20 question AA exam. You see, moderation is not in his current vocabulary-- not in stock trading or anything else. Of course, he batted 1000 and answered yes to each and every question from the AA fascists. This might be one rainbow I wish to avoid, and I believe there is no pot of gold at the end. At the very least, we must sign a pre-nup, as I suspect he is after my substantial assets so he can speculate some more in pink sheet issues with my money. Since we can now get married in all 50 states, he suggested Las Vegas in some Liberace theme park, as Legend is a big fan of the piano. Me in the City of Sin? Hell no. We actually agree only on a single topic. ZNGA breaks below $2-.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Today's burst in volume is quite curious. The huge question today is who's selling and who's buying? You can be damn sure the floor traders know this critical piece of information, and this further reinforces my cynical view of the markets, specifically, a lack of the free flow of information, unless you happen to be a made man in the syndicate. Does the ZNGA Brain Trust now have a Chinese solution to their pathetic stock price? If so, it will fail miserably. Never forget that Pincus and the Kosher Nostra unloaded $600 million of ZNGA shares near $13-. Yes, a criminal enterprise. The jury will have a field day with this civil case.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • In 60 minutes we have already witnessed 9 million shares cross the tape, and we had many days of late when the entire session couldn't surpass a mere 5 million shares. The stock price remains neutral, which is a curious fact indeed. Something is at work here. Is this garbage stock preparing to roll over and die like a dog in the gutter? We shall soon see. Repeat after me: "Volume is the Holy Grail for a stock trader." There is no single indicator more important. Repeat again: "Volume precedes price with very high mathematical probability."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Jot that somber fact down in your technical notes for ZNGA. This occurs while we have the much expected reflex rally in the broad averages. Do I buy into the latter? Hell no. We still have big selling ahead, and next week promises to be quite exciting. Can the Chinese government prop their casino for long? Stocks frozen from trading and short seller under the threat of arrest? Again I say, hell no. The China decline continues. Keep in mind that we can anticipate a day when the sheep all try to unload ZNGA simultaneously, and that's precisely when the bid side falls off a cliff. "I'm just sitting here watching the wheel spin round and round."
    ---John Lennon

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • You probably want to throw the unwinding of derivitives into the mix. This is not a complex line of logic, and the causal relationships are reasonably clear. Oil, copper, and iron ore are all major yardsticks of deflation, and all three are in major downdrafts, highly indicative of a deflationary environment. For any number of years, we have relied on China as the engine for world demand, and now China faces very serious problems in its bubble economy. The Chinese stock decline is by no means over and between Shanghai and Athens, the chances of mass contagion have increased at a startling clip. The final victim of deflation will be US equities, but I think junk bonds get hit first, symbolically represented by the ETF, HYG. We are looking at thousands of points of downside risk to the DOW, and the same percentage points apply of course to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. We have essentially papered over our serious structural problems with funny money since 2008, and this misguided policy ends in disaster, particularly since the rest of the world is doing much the same. The bottom line is that deflation destroys rotten debt by outright liquidation, and the world is awash in rotten paper. Again, I say no one can call the precise timing of these events, but they do unfold this calendar year. There will be all kinds of 50% retracements, followed by further declines even lower. Junk stocks like ZNGA, with zero earnings, will be punished severely by a percentage factor of three at the bare minimum. ZNGA may not survive what is in the cards. Greed now transitions to fear, and quite possibly panic selling. Short ZNGA at will. Ditto SPY. Ditto HYG.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The screen now reads "insufficient funds."
    I swore I had a positive balance just yesterday.
    Thank God I still have good credit at my favorite dive bar.
    Yes, that dank gin house in the Tenderloin.
    The 21 Club
    I hope this ZNGA swoon continues.
    I might have a few liquidity problems of my own.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • You enjoy this masochistic display, so take it like a real man.
    Just the way SFJLegend would.
    Attired in his pink Spandex at Gold's Gym.
    And the white tank top adorned with the scarlet letter Z.
    Standing in front of the full length plate glass mirror.
    Enjoying the view of himself and the riding crop of his assistant.
    Who looks very much like Mark Pincus.
    There is more fun to come.
    Yes, the ZNGA death spiral remains fully intact.
    Repeat after me:
    "It hurts so good."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The main snafu was that the NYSE was put on hold for 90 minutes when they attempted to call Comcast customer service. Some speculate that the routers might have been overwhelmed by Federal Reserve buy orders. Watch SPY head for the sky once again. In God and the Federal Reserve We Trust.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The dial merely reads: "Time is out of joint. Halted."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Here's the short answer: There are not many buyers on the other side of the trade, and they will become increasingly gun shy. That is what happens as we transition from greed to fear, and the process is in its mere infancy. Again I preach unto you:
    Liquidity
    Liquidity
    Liquidity

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Are we perhaps looking at a full blown liquidity crisis globally?
    A world which simultaneously papers over rotten debt.
    By the way, what's the FB P/E ratio?
    No downside risk for this big league growth story?
    I'm such a cynic.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FB
88.15-1.74(-1.94%)Sep 3 4:00 PMEDT