Yes, if you have sufficient virtual coins you may have Kim K. and Paris H. facsimiles simultaneously in the Eros Suite, complete with mirrors on the ceiling just so you can watch them squirm. It seems a complete bore, but different strokes for different folks. In a virtual world, perception dictates reality. It is the same for the price of ZNGA common shares. I do sense selling in the works. A dynamic shift in perception?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
That is above and beyond its supposed cash assets. I have to think of $1.5 billion in perspective. If you stayed in a top suite in the world's most expensive hotel--The Burj Al Arab in Dubai at $20,000 per night--you would have to stay there consecutive nights for 200 years to exhaust the capital.
Summary: This strikes me as a bit expensive for a company unable to post earnings. It is also a company without a physical product and even in all those bytes of proprietary knowledge, there is absolutely nothing of utility. A tomato on a vine has utility. This market will finally come to terms with systemic risk, and it increasingly looks like the catalyst will be Japan's efforts to devalue the yen and draw the country out of two decades of deflation, Economic historians will study 2013 for years to come. Utility will become ever more important as an economic concept. The rest of this rubbish will be washed out to sea like so much flotsam.
Earnings matter after the hype subsides. I do keep in mind the height of human folly, those high flying days of the bull dog, when ZNGA at nearly $10 billion, was worth more than Alcoa. That struck me as idiocy, and we saw the subsequent carnage. $1.5 billion remains delusional.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Farmvillers may now redeem their virtual coinage for a social game with an added dimension of the erotic. CEzero, Mr. Pinus ($1- salaryman), is quoted as saying, "My vision of the company is to take it physical with a strong emphasis on a diverse international menu." He is thought to be teaming up with renowned casino mogul and political activist, Sheldon Adelson.
The stock continues to swoon on the upcoming lack of earnings report, although Wunderschon Securities in Memphis has just upgraded the stock to a strong buy stating, "Sex sells. This is the future."
Some technicians question this latest diversification, noting the double candlestick formation lit at both ends crossing at the dreaded axis Z. This is a stock to watch minute by minute.
If you enjoy Leo Tolstoy, go back a bit further in the annals. Short at $14.19. I was even patient enough to ride through all the Farcebook hysteria. Now if we could just get a news story (Yahoo buyout rumor) from Wunderschon Securities in Memphis one more time, presto, $4- bull dog in minutes. If this stock can't move on hard numbers, it must operate on star dust.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Are any of those 4.3 million new players using real money, or are they just bored waiting for the bus? My essential point is that macroeconomics matter.
Online gambling with significant revenue is ZNGA's only hope. It is otherwise a failed business model. Stale loaves of bread.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I'm not buying into the hype that ZNGA will create some grand social experience for the masses to play slots. The person obsessed with virtual crops is not the same person attracted to black jack. The big money in online gambling is only found when you target the chronic gamblers, your 7% target audience. Vegas knows this. Poker Stars knows this. Year over year gambling revenue is down 4% in Nevada. You cannot gamble without discretionary income. On that note, Europe is in even worse shape than we are. With the exception of Germany (a conservative people not prone to wasting time and money on any ZNGA product), the entire continent is in a semi depression. England is definitely teetering. Asia is probably the golden goose, but when does that occur? What will be the barriers to entry, and what level of competition?
It is also ignored that governments are already directly involved in gambling. Look no further than the California State Lottery. The infrastructure is fully in place. How long would it take for any state to have a slot game or back jack up and running? All the claims of ZNGA's proprietary technology is more hot air. The states can and will run these games themselves. There's not a single government entity not strapped for cash, so the impetus is obvious. There's no reason to share the winnings with ZNGA.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The fabricated Bwin pop was the last you will see before earnings, so what are you waiting for? Mr. Pinus could possibly concoct some sort of rosy guidance on current gambling revenue, a whole two weeks of data, but since he is under increasingly legal scrutiny, that is a bit unlikely. You short the stock now if you think earnings will disappoint. Meanwhile, fat old ladies while away the hours playing hour of free Farmville. Very promising demographics there.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
ZNGA is a stock driven by news, rumor and innuendo, not to mention a fair amount of price manipulation, as was the case with Friday's 20 cent boost in a matter of minutes. We shall soon find out if it can stand on hard numbers.
It is also curious how the scam secondary is once again in the news with yet another lawsuit, this time by an employee--see today's Bloomberg. I would rate ZNGA as having significant coming legal troubles. It won't take much to convince a jury that the secondary was insider trading plain and simple. One need only look at the facts of the matter. It was the height of arrogance that Pinus and pals thought they could accomplish this dilution and ripoff with out drawing the ire of the legal profession. Only the chosen few were able to back door exit.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
ZNGA has established a sordid record of price manipulation. They have to push this stock on hype, because there are no real numbers, and the lack of earnings report will verify this fact. Mr. Pinus himself has a cool $400- million at his disposal. Does anyone want to ask why he does not throw his own money at the stock? Take a look at insider transactions. Buying is virtually absent. This morning's spike is like all the rest--suspect. Sheep required with this virtual stock.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
In a ZNGA momentum play, the Golden Rule is to always sell too early. Sell on hype news. Revenue from this partnership is ephemeral at best and far down the road. I have also not seen a single post specifying the revenue sharing agreement with Bwin. ZNGA is a stock which thrives on news, rumor, and innuendo, quite simply because it cannot stand on hard numbers. The herd mentality is about to be tested in the coming lack of earnings report. $3- coming soon.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
ZNGA did post a loss last quarter, but I was expecting a more catastrophic erosion of cash assets, and that did not occur. It is possible you are correct that they have cut costs and can post some decent numbers, but I think a healthy dose of skepticism is in order. Farmville is no longer all the rage.
I know most don't want to get bogged down with details on the world front, but there is much astir in nearly every area of the globe. I maintain that systemic market risk combined with currency wars will be key themes for 2013. This whole Bitcoin phenomenon is likely just a massive bubble, but it is perhaps signaling a loss of faith in central banks and fiat currencies.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
35 million shares short is but a pittance in terms of average daily and a 1 billion share total float, so any so-called short squeeze would be an affair lasting all of 2 1/2 hours based on today's session. Certainly there was some short covering today in light of the parabolic launch, but in the overall picture it is insignificant. Thus, the longs cannot rely on short covering to propel the sock. The stock can continue to move on hype, but I think a patient short will await the lack of earnings report later this month. The mantra will be that money is in the pipeline for online gambling, but the trickle will eventually leave investors (speculators really) disappointed. This is herd psychology at its finest hour. It is important to note that Mr. Pinus, already facing some legal challenges, was extremely careful about his guidance regarding revenue from this partnership with Bwin. This is an experiment and not much more. I have also not read the revenue sharing specifics with Bwin. We shall see if this has legs in the coming days, but hot money likes to move very fast.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
There's gold in them there English hills. All aboard!!
And the train kept a rollin all night long.
Yes, Dorothy, there's strength in these kind of people numbers.
Balance sheets don't matter in the new economy.
I'm placing a major buy order just as soon as volume passes 66,666,666.
I forgot that it was this easy to become fabulously wealthy.
My apologies to all the longs for disliking the bull dog.
Yes, I have now seen the light.
It is occurring right here, and thankfully because the partnership with Bwin will do little or nothing to assist the bottom line. Ideally, this announcement should have sprouted just before the lack of earnings report later this month, but since the company is facing some legal scrutiny, it is best not to push on a string.
When flying, if you pull too hard on the joy stick, there is a dangerous tendency to stall. Anyone who purchased during today's session is now up 11 cents at the very best. We essentially remain at Friday's price. Sell too early on hyped up news?? We shall see the level of patience among the speculators.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
I will vote yours the best written and well thought out post of the day.
It is wise to keep in mind the words of JP Morgan:
"I sold too early."
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The really hot money wants this at $4- by today's close. Come now message board sheep, your participation is critical. Without your assistance, we won't get there.
Again I ask, how many of you purchased the common shares after hours?
Please buy some shares now and drive this to $4-. I want volume of 100 million.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Consider for a moment what kind of money was purchasing the common shares after hours. What amount of capital were they working with? $10 to $15 million for these people is chump change. It is very fast and hot money. I would be so curious to know how many board posters purchased this stock after hours. I believe the number is quite small.
Here is how the syndicate hoped things would work out. The 10% after hours push would cause the lips of the Yahoo crowd to salivate in a sleepless night. They would immediately jump on board at the open driving the stock further to perhaps $3.60. The Kosher Nostra would then sell into the rally, and they could sit on a profit of $2 to $3 million for a few hours of "work." Meanwhile, nothing has materially changed for the balance sheet of ZNGA.
Apparently, the sheep are not buying into the scenario this morning. They are a very necessary part of the equation. Someone must purchase the syndicate's shares. Still, they make a quick $1.5 million. They expected much more. Hats off to Jesse Livermore.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Yes, they are attempting to reinvent the company because it became clear some time ago that there is no money in fat ladies obsessed with virtual crops. Online gambling cannot just be some additional venture. It is critical life support for the bull dog. The company lives or dies on the success of this venture.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
The partnership will add little or nothing to the bottom line. It is a mere petri dish experiment.
Let us see if the momentum speculators consider hard numbers when ZNGA posts one more loss in a few weeks.
I would think the smart money will sell into this bounce and in short order.
The euphoria and hoopla seems a bit excessive when you consider the stock sits exactly where it traded on
Friday.
It appears the full scope of the move occurred before the market opened. This is very fast money, and the word commitment is not even in their dictionary. Kosher Nostra. In. Out. 5% to 10%. Yes, that quick.
This to shall pass.
Sentiment: Strong Sell