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odonnellm66 315 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 31, 2015 9:50 AM Member since: Jan 17, 2012
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  • The height of absurdity is that they are currently fetching over $1,000,000 for a look alike dump in San Francisco's Sunset or Richmond Districts. Dump might be a bit exaggerated, but these old homes are nothing special, and on very tiny lots without side yards. Consider the property taxes alone on a $1 million house. This is in no way sustainable even with overseas Chinese buying, which plays a substantial role. Monitor KBH as a key housing indicator. Who's going to buy all these homes by the way as the baby boomers downsize? It isn't going to happen from the coming FB generation while wages are stagnant or in decline. Here's the big unknown about deflation in this country. Anyone with a direct memory of those dire economic conditions last experienced in the 1930's is already dead, senile, or wearing adult diapers. Our current leaders, policy makers, and citizenry have no direct experience with deflation, so we are in uncharted waters. They have banked on inflation as far as the eye can see. Ain't happening baby!

    Summary: If you own a house as a form of investment, you are in big trouble. If you owe little or nothing, that's fine and dandy as simply a place to rest your bones. Otherwise sell immediately.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1. A close today at or near the high, which appears to be $2.74.
    2. Strong volume on the order of 20 million shares, or at least well above average daily.

    This isn't technical hocus pocus, just very basic analysis. If both conditions are not met, there is no confirmation, and this likely ends up as just one more roadkill bounce of short duration. Clearly, I am opinionated, biased, and find a ZNGA a stock easy to despise for a host of reasons. Emotion is at play, a dangerous form of behavior in the world of stocks. However, I seldom like to argue with the tape, because it is much stronger than any man's lofty notions. Let the tape speak for itself at today's close. If I am wrong in my overtly negative view, I will promptly deny all previous posts. After all, we have ego on the line here, and mine is a rather inflated one. "Pride cometh before the fall."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • While not without his personality quirks which we all have, he expresses extreme generosity of spirit (actions, not words), way beyond the common money grubbing of the average stock trader. So Legend, why have you disappeared? You don't want to miss all the action, because this will be a very exciting year. Another Byrds song dedicated to Legend: "He Was A Friend Of Mine"

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Get off Farmville and your touch screens, and pick up a guitar.
    Yes, I am philosophically opposed to all that ZNGA represents.
    Mindless rubbish. Obsessive alcoholic behavior in screen form.
    But this is all about making coin. Right?
    OK, I still say ZNGA fades away.
    At its very core, nothing but garbage. No substance.
    And still no earnings. Never has posted a profit since the scam IPO.
    Likely not in a few weeks.

    Summary: Roger McGuinn and the Byrds--now that's one amazing band and masterful guitar. We will never see the likes of it again. Harmony/melody/creative lyrics. Absolutely timeless, like all things great.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Take note of GLUU, KING, and EA. For whatever reason, the major players have decided this is a sector, somewhat of a laggard, worth tossing money at. I remain extremely wary of a broad market sell off, which likely sinks all ships, possibly even the precious metals. We can continue to anticipate major fireworks in the currency markets (something I predicted months ago), which will unnerve the markets. Watch oil. Watch junk bonds (HYG). Deflation can and will ravage your broad assumptions, and sentiment likely shifts at lightening speed, and most investors will read the writing on the wall a few months too late. This year of trading promises to be extremely exciting with enormous volatility. It will be great fun for a few, and quite painful for many.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ZNGA has a strong tendency to confound a cynic like myself, that is to rise when the general market is in decline, and I have no adequate explanation for this uncanny behavior. However, we have been down this road countless times, and more often than not, these road kill bounces succumb in short order. It is almost as if they are designed and instigated by short term traders, or more specifically, the Kosher Nostra. It is exactly as the ex-wife told me, "Mike, staying power is everything, and I need more than a limp biscuit." Give me several days of strong above average volume with a continued price appreciation, and I will rethink my position. It often makes strategic sense to board a train late, not get greedy seeking the ultimate bottom, and merely take midrange profit points. Without volume and price confirmations, probability and past behavior dictate that this is just more rattle and hum, great for short term traders, but of no significance to a traditional value investor. I also remain quite skeptical of the coming earnings report, even with New Age Accounting. The Golden Rule on ZNGA roadkill bounces is to push the sell button very quickly, or watch your profits evaporate. We shall see if this is something more. You already know my view of the trend in the broad indexes. This is one major train wreck pending.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Price moves are meaningless in either direction without a volume confirmation. We certainly don't have it today. If it smells like a rat, it probably is.
    And what's to celebrate in today's feeding orgy in the major averages? The oil decline is not over, a most dangerous sign of deflation, and our exports are about to be constrained by a strong dollar. On the plus side, if you have disposable cash, plan a spring trip to Paris. Here's nothing quite like Paris in the month of May.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The stock movement is a complete and utter bore, but I suspect it is just the calm before the storm. Like all the poster boys on this message board, I thrive on a gambling mentality. It's all about the next roll of the dice, and this casino has been mighty dull of late, even with the complimentary cocktails. I do enjoy the Asian dealer displaying full cleavage at the Farmville table, but somehow that's not even enough. This stock has to give one way or another, and pretty damn quick. Will it be the next lack of earnings report coming soon, even though they will first postpone it until the books are fully cooked to a rather tender state? Yes, I am a madcap speculator, and I gave up on Gamblers Anonymous long ago, as I couldn't get beyond the Third Step--something about turning my life over to the care of God. Hell, this casino is my God. So bring it on. I want that stock savant, Pinkboned, to add to his substantial position right now just so I can throw him a life jacket as he is washed out to sea. Boys, let's get ready to rumble. And where the hell is SFlegend? We need some more ad hominem attacks on this board just to spice things up a bit.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Imagine for a moment if the Europeans had not adopted phony money printing. Then we would have seen the dumping of stocks. This brings us to the critical question. What is the next event which will move the markets? Likely enough, it is something not fully anticipated. Something a bit unpleasant. Perhaps junk bond liquidity problems. Greece? HYG is a key market indicator whether you trade in it or not. It is time for very careful risk assessment. This central bank charade ends in disaster. Deflation remains the major theme. It will ravage junk bonds and junk stocks. Even quality and innovative companies will succumb. It will take real estate down another leg, so sell the house. Batten down the main sails and secure the deck boys. We have some heavy weather ahead. Short SPY at will. For those with high risk tolerance, use options and leverage.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The primary action will be in currency trading, as the European Central Bank announces massive easing. I have no idea how our stock market will respond. Is it already priced in?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    A traditional hangman's noose has 13 loops.

    by odonnellm66 Jan 21, 2015 1:47 PM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Jan 21, 2015 1:51 PM Flag

    Oops, I mean we are not at $1.99 yet. It must be my dire state of melancholia which causes these lapses.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I know a few of the ZNGA longs are already thinking in these terms, and we haven't even broken below $3- yet. There are some excellent videos on youtube which show you precisely how to make a Wild West noose. You just need to find a good tree. I would prefer a site near the banks of a flowing river for the pure symbolism. The curious soul I am, I already did a bit of in depth research. No, I wouldn't contemplate such a final fate over anything as asinine or inane as the price of ZNGA common stock, but I do on occasion suffer from periods of the blues. The world strikes me often enough as one substantial dung hill full of hate and the killing of children. That outrageous slaughter of 150 young students a few weeks ago in Pakistan troubled me in particular. It all begins to wear on me, no matter my brokerage balance. In other words, money does nothing to ease my spiritual malady. I sometimes feel better when ZNGA declines 8 cents or more, but it is a very temporary reprieve, a brief reassurance that scripture is being fulfilled in the ongoing ZNGA death spiral. Today's ZNGA stock action might buy me another day.
    Why do people like Mark Pincus never contemplate suicide? Does the absolute love of money save them? Do they not feel strong enough? I'm open to all replies. I am a desperately seeking soul.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I have the utmost respect for their syndicate. These boys are real pros and the very best in the business. They can imply value where there is none. They can make the sheep believe the final bottom is in place, instigate a ZNGA roadkill bounce, and then sell into it. They are the Harry Houdinis of the stock market, and in their little magic shows, perception, not truth, is everything. They also fully embrace New Math, where 2+2=6, well knowing basic arithmetic is not a strong subject among the ZNGA frat boys, who thrive in the world of mass delusion.

    I must admit, at least in terms of full disclosure, that I am also a member of a triad. My little gang of thieves is made up of Irishmen and Norwegians. Most of imbibe alcohol a little on the heavy side. It might be a genetic predisposition. The difference between my group and the Kosher Nosta is that we practice geologic patience, while the Hebs just seek out short term gains. Their time horizon is measured in hours, while we can wait months and years, gently gulping cans of Pabst Blue Ribbon while we calmly observe the ticker tape. Our job is actually much easier. We simply await ZNGA's self immolation. We allow the ZNGA Brain Trust to dig its own grave. We believe it is coming soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 by odonnellm66 Jan 21, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    We are in the midst of a rotation from high yield (junk) bonds into government paper, a trend which is completely under reported by financial media. 20% of all junk bonds are in the oil sector, and we will see the first defaults here, causing a domino effect. Then liquidity shrinks at a rapid pace in junk bonds. The bid side of the trade will evaporate. Selling then spreads to equities. These are very dangerous times. The chase for yield has risks not fully appreciated. They will be soon. Deflation is a very powerful sword which cuts in many directions. While you're at it, sell your house now. Real estate has another big leg down. "It's not the return on capital, but the return of capital." ---JP Morgan

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • And their dollar is being hammered.
    Isn't there something slightly amiss with this picture?
    Can all the world's central banks ease simultaneously?
    Wouldn't that be a zero sum game?
    They are all desperately fighting deflation.
    Something gives, and in a big way.
    Yes, low quality bonds first, and then equities.
    Again, I preach unto you.
    Follow HYF as a key market indicator.
    Keep in mind, a 1% drop in bonds is a big move.
    ZNGA is the junk bond of equities.
    Hold at your own peril.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It's just the antics of Hal and the computer boys, and best ignored. They shave for pennies multiplied by several million shares, and they always focus on low cost junk stocks where the charade has the greatest chance of success. It is infinitely more difficult to execute with a large cap stock like FB. Watch out when this pink sheet stock responds to classic supply and demand curves. Free price discovery, especially after the next lack of earnings report, likely takes this garbage to the basement.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The consensus view is that this panic reaction to European deflation will cause all markets to rise.
    Hell,it worked for us. The S&P is up threefold from the 2008 low.
    I don't like consensus opinions.
    Because they are often wrong.
    In any case, this move is probably already priced into the markets.
    We have much excitement ahead.
    2015 will be anything, but certainly not boring.
    1000 point market swings will become the norm.
    The key consideration is to determine the primary trend.
    You already know my reply.
    Down, and down big time.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Last Friday was the best volume day in the last month. However, the price seems to drift aimlessly. We have relatively strong volume again today. Here's the million dollar question: Is this a classic case of a stock churning or does the volume indicate a growing and legitimate accumulation? Either this stock breaks out, and soon, or the shear tedium of watching wet paint dry takes it down decisively below $2.50. The jury is still in deliberation. The broad indexes remain very nervous with large irrational swings, and that likely becomes a problem. A burst in volume at today's close would merely be the antics of Hal and his computer buddies.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 by odonnellm66 Jan 20, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    1. Extreme and unusual volatility remains the order of the day.
    2. There is an ongoing rotation from risky junk bonds to government paper which will pick up further steam.
    3. There will be more surprises in the currency markets.
    4. Gold and silver continue to rally as hedges against deflation and currency woes.
    5. Homebuilder stocks are very weak and about to roll over. Example: KBH
    6. Deflation was never contained in the last five years, merely papered over.
    7. Oil will likely break below $40-, triggering massive layoffs of high paying jobs and junk bond defaults.
    8. Junk stocks with zero earnings (ZNGA) remain highly susceptible.

    Summary: Short the broad indexes (SPY) at will. Short junk bond ETF's. Short homebuilders. Remain short ZNGA. Add physical gold and silver to a minimum 20% portfolio allocation. We are in uncharted territory, and ripe for a market crash. This orgy ends in one nasty hangover.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • We are not, so when this house of cards collapses, it will be a sight to behold. Coming soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FB
75.91-2.09(-2.68%)Jan 30 3:59 PMEST

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