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odonnellm66 236 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Jan 17, 2012
  • Kinder Morgan merits very close attention because it represents the big picture. Yes Dorothy, we have a slight problem with deflation. How can this possibly be true with trillions of Fed funny money floating around? When high yield bonds implode where will capital be raised? The amount of leverage in place--bonds and stocks-- should be a bit frightening. I suspect more than a few folks will have to sell the last high flyers, and that would be stocks. But ZNGA is a major growth story. Right? Follow the yellow brick road.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • "Everyone knows this is nowhere."
    All we really have here is the typical push, shove, rattle, and hum by the Kosher Nostra and their robots. This junk stock likely closes unchanged, or heaven forbid, down at the close. I'm a very strong advocate of creative conspiracy theories, especially those which are Zionist based. This much explains why I believe those within the confines of the Federal Reserve are the real terrorists in this once great nation.
    In other news of the day, the VIX is now up over 10%. Where there is smoke, there's bound to be fire, but this notion is only for those curious enough to focus on the big picture. The big picture says that something gives shortly, and in a major way. Yes, it will be quite dramatic.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • You can take a look at the list, but you probably bank at one of them. I suggest that if you have designated high risk gambling capital, FAZ is an interesting idea, especially for those who thrive on adrenaline. It will certainly be more interesting than the ZNGA Brain Trust, which is an utter bore. Keep in mind that FAZ is leveraged three times and has potentially lethal resetting properties. We are not talking about investing in any traditional sense, and FAZ is not for the faint of heart. Neither is the pathetic joke ZNGA if you held it for any substantial period. Roll the dice baby!

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It will be quite fascinating how all these divergent currents in the markets coincide. Ask yourself why the Fed might raise interest rates while the European Central Bank does the exact opposite. Here's the short answer. China has its aim on the yuan becoming a world reserve currency, and this is one huge threat to the US dollar.
    On another subject near and dear to my heart. Take note that the frackers have hedged the price of their oil production, a strategy that kept most of them alive in these hard times. Now consider that a huge number of these hedges expire this month of December. The real financial pain begins next January. If you watch only a single market indicator, let it be the junk bond market. Full implosion is pending.

    You may now return to Dawn of the Testicles in Eunuchville.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • KMI stock is selling off and their huge debt is being downgraded to junk status. This is only the tip of the iceberg. Will junk bond funds be bailed like the banks in 2008? The short answer is no. The inflicted pain will be horrific, and naturally enough, the contagion spreads to stocks. OK, you still wish to speculate in junk like ZNGA? Be my guest.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It has been signaling that we are entering a period of extreme volatility with price movement to the downside. There was a curious move in the VIX this morning before any actual selling ensued, so it s a useful tool in an anticipatory sense. Trade the VIX at your own peril because timing must be impeccable. Today ZNGA demonstrates excellent price resistance on healthy volume, but ultimately, it will be unable to counter the coming waves of selling. It has been correctly pointed out that ZNGA's only savior is an outright buyout, but who wants to purcdhas e a failed business model? Quite simply, greed will undergo a dynamic transition to fear with or without a rate increase, and there will be desperate attempts to preserve principal. My favorite overall indicator remains the junk bond (HYG/JNK) market which will be severely ravaged. We are entering very exciting times. It is no longer business as usual.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This could be very bad news for the ZNGA frat boys. You will soon have to pay 99 cents per month to post your sage words on this message board. No doubt, most of you will disappear once the fee is assessed. The great irony is that Yahoo more or less faces the same dilemma as the ZNGA Brain Trust. How do you monetize what most people have grown accustomed to receiving free of charge? Marissa Meyer's days are numbered. Boy Pinky? Oh, that's right. His special class of stock grant him the majority of the voting shares. He's like the insane aunt living in the attic. There's simply no easy way to get rid of her.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I'm referring of course to that rather odd volume burst (10 million shares) the day before Thanksgiving, which curiously enough (or not so), had zero follow through. I really have to hand it to the syndicate of blood brothers. They are very clever, the best in this business, and masters of the proverbial pump and dump along with Tel Aviv Hold 'Em. Do you realize who is sitting at this poker table? You might be out of your league. ZNGA sheep should be asking this most troublesome question: Is there honor among thieves? I somehow think not when money, achieved by any means necessary, is the supreme God. So let us discuss ethics and integrity utilizing the Socratic method. Yes, there must be dialogue. Meanwhile, let us have some more point shaving.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1. Market breadth is plain horrid with a limited leadership eroding.
    2. Study a list of new 52 week highs and lows to verify point #1.
    3. Facebook is the new bellwether stock and it has stalled.
    4. Social byte is in a bubble highly reminiscent of the 2000 crash.
    5. The crash in commodities continues and indicates very powerful forces of deflation.
    6. Either commodities must rally dramatically or stocks must correct in the direction of oil.
    7. But oil more likely declines to $30-.
    8. The junk bond market is a ticking time bomb.
    9. Emerging markets are already in sharp decline, and China is the ultimate trump card.

    Summary: The junk stock ZNGA is particularly susceptible in this environment since it has zero earnings.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    $78-$79 in 3 weeks

    by boozerules Nov 25, 2015 11:23 AM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Nov 26, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    Oil related junk debt comprises 10% of the huge junk bond market at a minimum, and it may be as high as 20%. The frackers are still pumping away in North Dakota and Montana in a desperate attempt to short term service their massive debts (via cash flow) and their base cost is between $70- and $80- per barrel. Clearly, none of this is sustainable, and oil is more likely to drop toward $30 than it is to rise. You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see the junk bond market is one major train wreck in the making, and in terms of equities, the contagion to stocks will be the straw which breaks the camel's back. I fully agree with your thesis. Big money will be made shorting the junk bond market as the deflation theme in commodities continues to play out. Out of the money HYG puts with substantial time premium, normally a very high risk strategy, probably even make sense. I am simply amazed at the levels of complacency in the current junk bond market, and it is highly reminiscent of the subprime crisis. There has been a desperate search for yield by a blind public. Now there will be a desperate search for return of principal. Defaults and huge restructurings are coming soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • There are essentially two choices:
    A) The stock is under accumulation for an eventual buyout.
    B) Boy Pinky issued this edict to the temporary CFO, "Man the ramparts, and start buying ZNGA shares. The ZNGA Brain Trust may not earn a dime, but we can still speculate in our penny stock."

    I somehow think the latter is the case. Let us see how far that $200- million goes, and once expended, where this junk stock ends up. I do have a math question. What percent of current ZNGA market cap does $200 million represent?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I suggest they will know exactly when the buying ensues. This much heralded announcement by Boy Pinky could be at play on this very day, and it is somewhat suspect on a slow trading day before Thanksgiving. Be that as it may, more than 4 million shares have already changed hands, and the volume says something is up. The $200 million push and shove will propel this stock short term, but it doesn't last. It is laughable that ZNGA wants to invest in their stock rather than their failed business model. Or is it?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Please read today's opinion piece from Market Watch--"Wall Street is Still Trying to Sell You These Turkeys"
    In this article there's a rather interesting list of major miscalculations over the last year by the so-called pros. In the case of ZNGA, Wall Street is attempting to sell you not a turkey, but a dog, and a rabid canine with no earnings. It is often pointed out on this message board that a large percentage of ZNGA's float is held by hedge funds among other enlightened entities, and they must know more than we do about ZNGA's future prospects. It is seldom asked why more than 90% of these funds are now under water on their ZNGA holdings, as is also true of any retail buyer who held on to this junk stock for any period of time. I will also suggest that most of these pros are either unaware or ignoring the ongoing cratering in the junk bond market, which is the central theme going forward. The subprime crisis also caught most with their pants down. A healthy dose of skepticism is quite prudent at this stage of the market cycle. When the levee breaks, there will be a deluge of selling. Markets always go down much faster than they go up, and years of gains can be erased in a matter of weeks. The devil will be in the precise timing of the event, and it is no simple task to call. We are getting closer. Patience will reward the shorts in the broad averages. This has been the case of ZNGA since its very inception.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • In some ways, this is not entirely a stretch of reality. Keep in mind that each and every day there are new offerings from a host of providers and all have a staying power which is extremely brief. The barriers of entry to this market are minimal at best since there no physical product-- no plants, equipment, or assembly lines. In other words, the marketplace continues to be flooded with these modern drugs of conformity, and the vast majority can be played free of charge. Each company desperately searches for that golden rainbow which is some inane pastime that clicks with the masses for a few brief months and the bait and switch (requiring the debit card) momentarily succeeds. It all goes back to classical supply and demand curves, and from my perspective, there is a glut of these silly games. If these games are in essence nothing more than a commodity, ZNGA faces an uphill battle. ZNGA must also compete with every other form of entertainment out there, and the last time I looked, there are only 24 hours in a day. By the way, commodities are crashing across the board, and this crash must eventually transfer to equities.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • If you are truly a brave soul, a man of great fortitude, take a look at the ZNGA chart all the way back to December of 2011. Indeed, this hype stock is quite a tragedy for anyone who held it for an extended period of time. We did experience a very healthy roadkill bounce in March of 2014 when Mattrick took hold of the tiller, but it soon succumbed once it was determined Don was in way over his head. Curiously, there has been no grand celebration of the reincarnation of Mark Pincus, but why should there be when active paying users remain in sharp decline.
    Summary: If you have been Zngboozled by this pink sheet stock, please feel free to dial:
    1-800-ASK-SAUL Your first 30 minute consultation is granted free of charge.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Flee

    by boozerules Nov 20, 2015 4:15 PM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Nov 21, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Your point is a very good one. The decline has thus far been quite orderly, simply a slow steady price erosion over the last year, and by and large ignored by all but a few bond pundits like Jefferey Gundlach. The relative snail pace of the downward trajectory masks how dire the situation actually has become, and this in part explains the high levels of complacency. I hazard a guess that further declines might not be so orderly and this occurs when large simultaneous sell orders reveal the atrocious liquidity of junk bonds. It comes sooner than many realize.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Exact figures are not easy to come by, but the total dollar value is in excess of $3 trillion. To put this in perspective, the junk bond market (of course, omitting high grade corporate and Treasuries) is at least three times greater than all U.S. credit card debt combined. These are pretty big numbers, and the fuse has already been lit on this ticking time bomb. Even if you have no position in high yield debt, it merits very close attention for an equities investor. As go junk bonds, so goes the stock market. That's why the current 52 week lows on HYG and JNK should be disturbing to say the least, and they are way off the radar of your average investor. There has been a desperate search for yield for nearly a decade in light of the paltry yields on Treasuries, and caution--preservation of principal-- has been thrown to the wind. Once the defaults begin, there will be a very limited appetite for these low quality bonds, and the price adjustments will be drastic in many cases. Now consider the highly complex dervitive contracts immersed in the junk bond market and grasp how quickly things can unravel. In my view, the looming danger in the junk bond market is the primary market theme going forward. Forewarned is forearmed.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I casually suggest it will be found in the junk bond market. Both HYG and JNK are near their 52 week lows, and one might consider high yield debt as the canary in the coal mine. Defaults and forced restructurings are coming quite soon, and the junk bond market, notorious for its very poor liquidity, will begin to unravel, an event which also occurred before the crash of 2008. In my view, we can still see $30- per barrel oil, hinting at the very powerful forces of deflation. Deflation destroys debt of dubious quality, and the oil sector comprises 15% of the junk bond market. A domino effect is very much in the cards, and this time, the carnage will not be contained by the Federal Reserve and its printing presses.
    Summary: Deflation will ultimately exert its influence on equities, the final holdout, and things can get quite ugly. Downside risk now looms large at unprecedented levels. Very careful risk assessment should be the order of the day at this critical market juncture. Indeed, cash might not be trash. And the band plays on. Until it doesn't. The speed with which this will occur will shock even the experts.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The best case scenario for this tragedy of a company is that the price remains stable near the $2.50 area, an unlikely event because the ZNGA Brain Trust still carries more than a $1 billion dollar premium above its liquidation value, and that assumes ZNGA still has its cash assets intact. Let us hold the faith for the moment that we hold stable in the $2.50 area. This is simply dead money with zero yield. Your capital is bound and tied on a dead end street, and the opportunity cost is significant. It is actually more likely that we retest the all time low of $2.09 once the broad averages turn south. Observe how ZNGA is unable to participate in this final blow off top in the markets. It is a teenage wet dream that anyone will bid for a company with a failed business model. ZNGA: Garbage in and garbage out.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • That was a deflationary event, and it is at our doorstep once again. What if oil drops all the way to $30-, quite feasible in my view? Fracking recovery costs average between $70 and $80 per barrel and these outfits continue to pump, losing money on each barrel, simply in a vain attempt to service their debt on a short term basis. Clearly, this is in no way sustainable, and large defaults are pending. I suggest that the trillions in stimulus (funny money) merely bought us eight years of time from structural deflationary forces which remain very much alive. It has been one great ride for the stock market from the S&P low of 666. That party, a feeding orgy based on low interest rates and money printed from thin air, is now over. Consider how junk stocks with zero earnings--ZNGA--will perform going forward?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FB
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