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Facebook, Inc. (FB) Message Board

odonnellm66 338 posts  |  Last Activity: May 3, 2016 1:46 PM Member since: Jan 17, 2012
  • Today's very minor setback in the averages should come as no great surprise, as anemic volume has been ringing loudly for weeks, and especially in yesterday's session. The trend is quite clear. We now have high volume days only when the indexes are subject to selling, and this of course indicates the future path of least resistance is down, and I opine that the decline will be substantial, no mere 10% correction. A traditional and healthy 10% correction will be a walk in the park compared to the dark vision I fully expect to unfold. I leave the precise market timing to those more gifted in reading tea leaves, but it does occur this calendar year. If one is to apply a strict volume approach to ZNGA, the news is particularly dire. Interest and legitimate demand (not computers swapping shares with each other) for this hype stock is drying up at a rapid clip. There comes a point when the big boys, the so-called professionals, throw in the towel on this rubbish. If any single entity attempts to unload a large block of ZNGA common stock, the inherently poor liquidity comes to bear on the shares like a sledgehammer. FB has strong liquidity. ZNGA does not. Selling begets more selling, and once the herd is frightened, they want out at any price. This could happen sooner than most think, and certainly, this week's lack of earnings report will be a major test, especially if the broad averages
    remain in decline.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I cant' go with that.
    No can do.
    Decline pending, and likely this week.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I can't, at least from memory. Who are these people?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • In fact, SPY volume is about as low as I have ever witnessed in recent history, and may not even break 50% of the daily average in today's session.. A 10% pullback in the broad indexes would be very healthy for the markets at this juncture. The problem is that the decline is going to be much bigger than a traditional correction, and then we see some complex derivitive contracts-- valued in the trillions-- begin to unwind in unforeseen manners. Meanwhile, ZNGA simply erodes away penny by penny into oblivion. Not to worry. We are about to see a huge burst in ZNGA volume this week post the lack of earnings report. Watch the ZNGA options contracts at the $2.50 strike price very carefully. Leaked information is generally first found in unusual volume in options trading.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Last night's Austin City Limits on PBS
    Mind blowing performance.
    Sarah Jarosz and her equally gifted trio.
    I especially like her song, "Over the Edge."
    It probably summarizes ZNGA's current predicament.
    The baton has clearly been handed to Sarah Jarosz by Joni Mitchell and Emmy Lou Harris.
    Jarosz will have a huge impact on music.
    Big. Very big.
    I am in awe.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1. AAPL
    2. Google
    3. Microsoft
    4. Exxon Mobil
    5. Berkshire Hathaway
    6. Facebook
    7. Amazon
    8. Jonson & Johnson
    9. General Electric
    10. Wells Fargo
    Observations:
    --It is amazing how few of these companies make a physical product.
    --The overweight of tech/social byte is obvious, and disturbing.
    --You can short this entire list across the board, but tech will decline the most in the next crash.
    --Once the big boys succumb, ZNGA is toast.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • 1. Japan is back in deflation mode with further easing on hold.
    2. US new housing starts were miserable.
    3. Gold and silver have both been awakened from their winter slumbers.
    4. SPY volume has finally broken out its months long lethargy with price to the down side.
    5. The VIX now indicates a big jump in volatility is coming.
    6. The moves in gold and silver signal a renewal of currency wars.
    7. The largest market cap stock in America, AAPL, is in a prolonged decline.
    Point #4 is short term the most important.
    And ZNGA likely releases bad numbers in the midst of a firestorm.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • ZNGA remains in a prolonged period of transition, and like Chairman Mao, we have just instituted another "Five Year Plan." We reluctantly admit that ZNGA cannot yet post a P/E ratio except in non-GAAP form, but Rome wasn't built in a day, and virtual realities take time to develop. We have a new promising CEO and CFO on the management merry-go-round, and if they don't work out, we simply replace them with new faces, which always causes a 15% rise in our common stock price. Don't forget that naked man behind the curtain either--Der Fuhrer, Mark Pinky. He still controls the majority of the voting shares, so he can check out, but he will never leave. We at ZNGA see nothing but blue skies and rainbows in the future. Willy Wonka says so.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Originality in plot lines was not his strong point. He was no Agatha Christie or Charles Dickens. His enigmatic genius is found in the use of language and his astounding perceptions of human nature. He understood how crowds behave and the threat they posed to a stable society (or stock market), and this is true particularly in the history plays. In light of his supreme grasp of human psychology, I suspect Shakespeare would have been a very gifted stock trader were he alive today. Modern technology has not changed our DNA one iota, and Shakespeare's views are just as accurate today as they were four plus centuries ago. I reflect on these things as we just celebrated his death. The great intrigue of Shakespeare is we really know nothing about the factual circumstances of his life. I know more than enough of Mark Pinky.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The economic 3% elite of our nation are not supporting this buffoon. The Donalds strength is found among common working stiffs--the fading middle class-- and this tier of society is under huge economic stress. They never participated in the so-called recovery, which in fact, is no recovery at all. Trump's run for the Republican nomination makes for a very interesting study of crowd behavior, which of course is intrinsically connected to the price of stocks. Mob mentalities, also critically important to the marketing of ZNGA's asinine games, can turn on a dime, and that is exactly what we are about to see as waves of selling enter the stock arena. As stated many times, SPY volume, extremely anemic in the last month and well below the daily average, is a key stock indicator. It has just been wakened up from winter hibernation, but SPY volume now only rises on down market days, as evinced by yesterday's and today's trading sessions. This is one very significant warning sign. The path of least resistance in stocks is now down and any single unpleasant catalyst can push us over the edge. It matters not what that specific catalyst is. The best case scenario is that ZNGA merely treads water, but I somehow think there will be a very negative reaction to more posted losses next week, and ZNGA, quite unlike AAPL, has atrocious liquidity. So, who will be buying your shares, and at what prices?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Take a look at ZNGA's miserable volume today--5.4 million shares. This absolute lethargy indicates that buyers cannot be enticed by this so-called bargain price because they are nervous about next week's lack of earnings report. While we are presently in the ZNGA volume doldrums, selling can easily accelerate to over 20 million shares in a single session once the negative integers (cooked though they be) are released. Then poor liquidity will be ZNGA's undoing. Now ask yourselves a few questions:
    1. Why did no reflex bounce occur in AAPL today after the bloodbath?
    2. Why was there no roadkill bounce in TWTR either?
    3. Can a single stock--FB--keep the entire stock market afloat?
    4. Why is the SPY volume, though still below the average daily, inching higher above recent lethargy, but only on days when the broad averages are down? I consider this a very important technical negative.

    Summary: The stock averages are headed down with a possible crash this calendar year and ZNGA is particularly susceptible since it is built on a foundation of quick sand.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The Good--AAPL: A highly innovative company with real products. However, the market is now fully saturated for touchscreen devices and the mobile service companies are now unwilling to subsidize the purchase of these expensive phones. Fewer and fewer individuals are willing to make the yearly purchase of the latest and hottest device. More troublesome yet is that Chinese demand has fallen off a cliff.

    The Bad--TWTR: One might think that this is a major growth story since most of the population is unable to articulate anything beyond 140 characters, and nothing in the way of paragraph form. The problem is that TWTR has substantial revenue, but nothing in the way of profits.

    The Ugly--ZNGA: Yes, this dog is damn ugly. Here we have a company whose sole product is childlike fads. These fads, all expensive to produce, come and go with the speed of lightening and user loyalty shifts with the wind. ZNGA has had no P/E ratio listed since it went public since their are no profits. It merely keeps the doors open by expending the capital raised from the fools who purchased this rubbish at prices above $10-. Clearly, this is not long term sustainable while actual paying users remain in sharp decline. Do you pay for porn in a world of freebies? I think not. Then why should you pay a dime for the likes of these drugs of conformity? Freemium Business Model = Total Fail

    Summary: Tech and social byte will be the sectors to lead this market down in 2016. Consider how many professional money managers have been holding AAPL on the road down, and they of course know better than us. I would also reiterate that the current doldrums in volume of all the exchanges hint that big trouble is in store for us this year. ZNGA volume is particularly disturbing.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I'm one to question commonly accepted norms, so I will toss a pan of dirty dish water on this theory as well. It is now particularly dangerous to refer to past behavior as precedent for the future. Six months ago, it would have been completely absurd to think that Trump would be the front runner of the Republican Party. In other words, the unthinkable now becomes quite plausible. My view is that we live in the most unusual and fascinating of times, but danger lurks everywhere. In terms of the stock market, I find the dramatic volume decline the most troublesome signal, and and today's action in the SPY once again reinforces that dark feeling.
    Summary: Something gives this calendar year in the broad indexes, and gives in a major way. If a sharp decline were to occur before the election, it definitely assists Trump. The exact timing really doesn't make a huge difference to me. I only know it is coming. It also doesn't even matter who is the next President. When Lady Macbeth presides over that office, the most likely scenario, she will be unable to prevent the thick flow of blood. Quite simply, "Time is out of joint." In this context, a junk stock like ZNGA is doomed. No earnings. A failed business model. A passing fad at best.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I suggest there is not. Pure anecdotal evidence says ZNGA's fixed costs exceed revenue, and wildly so. You can start with bloated management and 1600 plus highly compensated techies. On the other side of this equation, paying users are in sharp decline, and most never get beyond freemium mode. This company has been bleeding cash assets since it went public. Do you rely on our own government for figures about the actual level of the nation's debt or true unemployment? I don't. Do you trust your broker for unbiased information? Here's an interesting tidbit. The firm my father (now dead) toiled with most of his career--Merrill Lynch--has blocked the doom and gloomers from Zero Hedge from all company computers. What threat might Zero Hedge pose to Merrill's work force? Isn't the free flow of ideas and opinions, whether you are in agreement or not, healthy for the equity markets? It must depend on the rose colored glasses.

    Summary: Do your own homework carefully, and the devil is always found in details ignored by the common masses. If I were a young man again, I would prepare for the eventual demise of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. That is the single event which will decimate the American way of life, which is now built on a foundation of debt which never will be repaid. I would reject materialism and simply own the bare essentials free and clear. My house would be a place to live, not an investment. I would reject touchscreen realities in favor of critical independent thinking. I would remain short the common stock of ZNGA.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Have you ever articulated a thought of two words or more? It's a high calling.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Despite ongoing Chinese cash demand, San Francisco is headed for another big fall. The prices have become completely irrational and the incomes aren't there to sustain these levels. Take a peek at the look-alike dumps in San Francisco's Sunset and Richmond Districts which fetch in excess of $1 million. It's insanity, and we never learned a damned thing from the last decline. This is why Mark Pinky (Der Fuhrer) should unload his Taj Majal headquarters as soon as possible. It is the only profitable (so far, but the clock ticks) acquisition the ZNGA Brain Trust has ever made. Sell before a massive earthquake hits the Bay Area this year. What will Natural Motion fetch in a sale? Much less than the purchase price. Another Drop Something.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The volume alarm has been ringing loudly for many days now, and ignore this divergence at your own peril. The volume crash is found not only in ZNGA, but stocks across the board. An excellent yardstick is the SPY which should be watched closely. What little trading we witness is dominated by Hal and his computer pals, and retail interest in stocks, representing actual legitimate demand, is nowhere to be found. This is a particularly dangerous trend, seasonally abnormal, and it will be resolved likely in a cascade of selling. ZNGA will also be posting more losses at a very perilous fork in the road. It is but a question of time before this junk stock is once again below 200 pennies. We only have have one more new CEO and the same old tune.
    Momma told me: "ZNGA. That ain't the way to have fun, son."
    However, your accountant will love the huge loss carry forward.
    As far as the eye can see.
    Full Disclosure: This commercial message is brought to you courtesy of Vulture Capital Management. Vulture Capital Management currently holds a large put option position on the ZNGA Brain Trust at the $2.50 strike price.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This is no one day event, as a pattern of many sessions has developed, and any good stock trader (or musician, or poet, or even an athlete) looks for discrepancies and unusual patterns. This dramatic volume decline will of course be resolved--they always are-- and it spells big trouble ahead. There is no single stock indicator of greater importance than volume. You might next ask what kind of liquidity the stock market, and especially ZNGA, will exhibit when heavy selling enters the equation. I suggest that stocks with zero earnings and a mountain of pure hype are especially vulnerable.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • New York Times article by Sabrina Tavernise:
    "Suicides in the U#$%$ 30 Year Record"
    You reply, "It's absurd to hold this technology partly responsible for the rise in suicides."
    I'm not so sure. Our society drifts ever more towards the impersonal, alienation, and the lack of legitimate community. Face to face interaction--real conversations--are getting harder to find. The kids are all glued to their devices, and any sense of critical thinking is absent. The likes of ZNGA apparently fill the void, but there is a high cost involved. I firmly believe this absolute rubbish is detrimental to the health of the social fabric. There is an entire generation lost at sea, and I often wonder how they will react to a true economic crisis. What kind of levels of cooperation can we expect in Dickensian hard times? The zombies are fully consumed by nothingness, and so connected, they are disconnected. Ask yourself why Third World countries, where there is a daily struggle just to survive, have relatively low rates of depression and suicide. I have much experience in the backwaters of the globe, and it permanently altered my perception of what a full and engaged life is.
    And no, $2.50 ZNGA won't hold either. I suspect we retest the all time lows for this junk stock. I also take ZNGA's accounting with a grain of salt. A play on Mark Twain would be, "Lies, damned lies, and accounting."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Apr 22, 2016 2:27 PM Flag

    One more thing: Kayne West = Rubbish

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