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odonnellm66 416 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 6 minutes ago Member since: Jan 17, 2012
  • The large GDP downward revision in GDP is disturbing to say the least, yet the market shrugs it off as a non-event. It must be old news and weather related. The daily tedium wears thin on me and if I don't get some excitement pretty damn quick, I may just go back to betting on the ponies. This market is like a dull working girl, a cold fish. ZNGA perfectly reflects the absolute boredom. Yawn, it's unchanged.

    Summary: Wall Street earns huge profits from volatility. It's their bread and butter. It will return shortly.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • This is the most basic tenet of DOW Theory. This is why today's sharp decline in the transportation average ought to be of particular concern. All of June's gains have been given back and we are now in the red for the month. Some of this has to do with nervousness in the oil markets, but I suspect something more is at play. The government and the financial media are preaching that we are in full recovery mode, but it is a highly selective recovery. Volatility as indicated by the VIX is near all time lows and volume across the board has been plain horrid, though it is worth noting that activity finally spruced up on the SPY today, however, it was on a down session, a telltale sign of future trends.

    Summary: The tedium of the dogs days of summer in our markets is about to be resolved. Like a broken record, I will repeat that volume precedes price with high mathematical probability. True, markets seldom sell off in the summer months, but this year might prove to be the exception, especially when one considers events on the world stage. Short the major averages at will. ZNGA still has $1 billion in downside market cap risk, and that's based on the risky assumption that the company does not rely on creative accounting.
    When this market unravels, fad stocks will be vaporized, as they are completely reliant on discretionary spending which will be under enormous pressure.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Call me when we are down 5000 points. The public has been suckered into this market by our very own Federal Reserve. In the incessant drive for yield, the stock market is apparently the only game in town since the yield on the ten year bond is a paltry 2.5%, and doesn't even keep pace with the rate of inflation, which by the way, is much higher than the official statistics. ZNGA is a stock highly symbolic of the complacency now reigning in our markets. The sheep are tossing money (bottom fishing) at a fad stock which has never yet posted an annual profit, and won't do so as far as the eye can see. We can speculate endlessly on what will be the catalyst for the big decline in the averages. I suspect it will have something to do with the US dollar. One thing is certain. The pundits will proclaim, "No one could have possibly anticipated these events." In other words, it will be 2008 revisited, and quite possibly worse. How do you defend a declining dollar? You raise interest rates unless the Zimbabwe solution appeals to you. We now punish traditional savers and reward speculation. There is no proper risk assessment.
    Until...........The fat pig squeals in terror.

    Summary: The most intelligent, though least entertaining position is to simply short the SPY, turn off the computer, go fishing, and come back in six months. You will be handsomely rewarded.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • You will be paying him the same tomorrow.
    How is ZNGA performing for you?
    We are very close to the low of the session.
    $3.15 came and went. The technical picture is bleak indeed.
    Get on your knees now and begin to pray to the cyber gods.
    When we break the key technical and psychological price of $3-
    The floodgates will once again open.
    We can then expect a burst above the current dreary volume.
    60 million share days are coming.
    It won't be pretty.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It is curious that he has chosen to push and shove in the middle of the session, as generally the robotic effect is found either at the open or the close. Remember, these trading programs only seek a profit of two or three cents per share. Multiply that figure by 7 million shares and you quickly grasp the profit potential of parking money for a few hours. A close today near $3.05 or lower would indicate this rattle and hum is completely due to Hal and should be interpreted as nothing more. I suspect retail interest in ZNGA is more or less dead, and computerized trading is responsible for 70% of daily volume on an average ZNGA trading day. The other 30% are the mad speculators inhabiting this message board and they must have a high tolerance for risk.

  • Rumors are circulating that ZNGA might make hostile takeover bids for both Frito Lay and Starbuds, one of the fastest growing brick and mortar marijuana dispensaries in the country. Contemplate for a moment the possible synergies of one stop shopping. It's like the ultimate Trifecta. You pick up an ounce of Amnesia Haze, a couple large bags of Frito corn chips, some Farmville gaming cards, and you're good to go. Say goodbye to all your worries. Wall Street's movers and shakers already sense a deal in the works, and this explains today's massive six cent move in ZNGA common shares. I hereby issue a level 10 buy signal on ZNGA stock. This catapults to $6- at a minimum before the dog days of summer draw to a close. You heard it here first.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Each time I load up, the ZNGA death spiral resumes.
    Yet, my faith in the ZNGA Brain Trust remains ever constant.
    You can't keep a good stock down, not a blue chip issue like this.
    You see, I have a fascination with virtual realities.
    I always found mathematics such a bore, especially debits and credits.
    I can't get enough of Farmville, Version 2, A Delusional Escape
    Especially if I have been inhaling the clouds of miasma from my bong.
    Did you see that recent Wall Street article on ZNGA?
    Active users are growing by leaps and bounds in Colorado and Washington.
    It's no coincidence that both these states have legalized pot.
    This is a demographic trend--the green bud generation--very much in ZNGA's favor.
    ZNGA will be one of the major growth stories of the New Millennium.
    Buy with wild abandon. Dr. Don is a true visionary.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Granted, the volume is atrocious. Too many people have been burned by this scam--many billions were outright confiscated-- so all but the mad delusional speculators are willing get their feet wet. Hal the computer is ever present, as evidenced by yesterday morning's short lived pump to $3.19. Retail investors are either completely demoralized or already proffered the proverbial pound of flesh, which most likely is now one hefty loss carry forward.

    Summary: I would expect one more dramatic burst in volume quite similar to when Wall Street was less than impressed with Dr. Don's Medicine Show. The floodgates open when ZNGA again breaks key technical and psychological support at $3-. There remains yet $1 billion in downside market cap risk to this stock, and that's assuming no hanky panky accounting. The next bout of selling occurs as the major averages enter a period of decline. Should this move in the precious metals have actual legs in the next week, it can be interpreted as a major warning sign.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • At the very least, the options boys will want to see this rubbish close at $3- so they can collect premiums on both sides of the $3- strike price.
    ZNGA has floundered during one of the very great bull runs in the history of the markets. We are now poised to see massive selling in the averages on any excuse, whether it be a dark swan event or not. How will ZNGA perform when the herd is stampeding in fright? That's when investors demand hard numbers, not hype. This ain't no silly game.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • The stock market won't like this one bit. The government will attempt to push down prices tomorrow, but this is a long term bull market.

  • Reply to

    Why is gold up $25- per ounce?

    by odonnellm66 Jun 19, 2014 12:30 PM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Jun 19, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    You will soon understand why Janet Yellen (Old Yeller) wants to impose a redemption fee on private investors who hold bond funds. Things can become so unpleasant when everyone tries to sell simultaneously. The precious metals are excellent long term investments. At the very least, we will see $2000 gold and $35 silver. Our government will attempt to suppress the rising prices, but it will be effective only over the short run. The dollar will lose its status as the world's reserve currency. Why do you think we invaded Iraq? Saddam Hussein wanted to sell his oil outside of the dollar. Mumar Gadaffi wanted tom do the same in Libya. They didn't want to play by our imposed rules, so we removed them. China is doing the same thing now with Russia in the purchase of natural gas. Those are big boys, and we won't take them on so easily.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • And right on the heels of the FOMC meeting.
    Is there perhaps some connection?
    Our government will fight tooth and nail to keep a lid on precious metal prices.
    They are the most directly manipulated markets in the world.
    We cannot have a viable alternative to holding paper which can be printed. Intolerable.
    Not even Bitcoin (which I neither trust nor fully understand).
    Otherwise, the ponzi scheme is threatened with collapse.
    Markets have a funny way of taking on lives of their own, especially in a panic.
    Would the United States ever outlaw the private ownership of gold?
    There is historical precedent.
    We've done it before.
    Exchange controls would be next.

    Summary: Even if you hold no position in the precious metals or oil, they merit very close attention, as well as the dollar/Japanese yen exchange rate. You can now return to Farmville, Version 2--a Pig Sty Escape.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • "Heaven forbid, we don't want to disturb the boys on Wall Street. They require free money and zero % interest rates. Stock ownership, not industrial production, is now the wealth generator for the American economy."

    Summary: A big problem with the U.S. Dollar is not a question of if, but when. Who blinks first? Probably China with some Russian assistance. The petro dollar as the world's reserve currency will be eroded one cent at a time. Physical silver might be the true dark horse in this market, as it is now universally shunned after the dramatic decline from $40 plus. It is up 2% this morning. Dollar hedging is the order of the day. The great upcoming excitement will be in the currency markets.
    ZNGA: Completely irrelevant fool's gold.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • It's price manipulation plain and simple. The idea is to stimulate some buying interest from the ZNGA sheep.
    The horrid volume says that this strategy is wearing thin. Sell on any rally. When ZNGA breaks key technical and psychological support at $3-, just a matter of time, we will have another burst in volume. It won't be pretty.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse:

    by odonnellm66 Jun 16, 2014 11:55 PM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Jun 17, 2014 12:45 AM Flag

    "Giving up smoking is the easiest thing in the world. I know because I have done it thousands of times." -----Mark Twain

  • Janet Yellin is seriously contemplating a redemption (exit) fee to all retail holders of bond funds. She's clearly concerned about a coming liquidity crisis, and she damn well ought to be. The corporate bond market is where the action is, in primarily what we used to call junk bonds (now high yield bonds), because there is the never ending search for yield in an era of negative rates of return on high quality government paper. (I use the term high quality a bit loosely.) These bonds are highly susceptible to any increase in interest rates, and just like stocks, the holders cannot all sell at once in the event of unpleasant news, at least not without catastrophic consequences. That's what Yellin is attempting to avoid. Of course, the investment banks like Goldman Sachs will not be subject to the same rules as the retail public. The little guy is always left holding the bag. His bag will be full of toxic debt and heavily discounted.

    Summary: This announcement was by and large ignored by the public and the media. It is a sign of much bigger things to come.

  • 1. Debt (Much higher than the commonly accepted figure of $17 trillion)
    2. Civic Decay (An entire society glued to their touch screen phones, but hardly a reader among them)
    3. World Disorder (It's already here.)
    4. Farmville, Version 2 (The ultimate drug of mass conformity. Keep the population stupid.)

    Summary: The four horsemen are about to interact in a massive chain reaction.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • You know the types--the hipster vegans and foodies with their Google glasses and raspberry berets.
    However, someone needs to conduct this test.
    See that comatose bulldog lying in the gutter? Yes, ZNGA.
    Give the rabid canine a good firm Franz Beckenbauer soccer kick to the gut.
    Just to see if the poor thing is yet alive.
    It's a most dangerous act, and someone might film you with their i-phone.
    You can easily get more jail time for kicking a dead dog than thrashing a homeless wino on 6'th Street.
    I do on occasion have tendencies for the ultraviolence.
    A Clockwork Orange.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Odonnell about to perform the backstroke

    by zonkedknowsall Jun 16, 2014 1:39 PM
    odonnellm66 odonnellm66 Jun 16, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    Key technical and psychological ZNGA support is a rather obvious $3-. When we have another decisive break below $3-, it's "Sayonara Baby!" We will be lucky to hit 17 million shares by today's ZNGA close, and that's 50% off of average daily volume. That ought to give one pause for thought. Anemic volume is the most troublesome technical condition for the markets across the board. That is about to be resolved. We are very close to a day where there is a huge burst in volume--mass capitulation-- and it will be caused by the sellers, not the buyers. The most likely catalyst for a selloff is clearly turmoil in the Mideast, but it doesn't much matter what the single event is. This market is looking for any good excuse to sell, and the risk reward relationship for holding stocks is horrid. Bull sentiment to bear sentiment is currently running 63% to 32%, another troubling figure. Furthermore, margin interest remains at historic highs. Meanwhile, complacency rules the day.

    Summary: For someone who doesn't want to monitor stock screens daily, the most intelligent trade is to short the SPY, turn the computer off, and come back in about five months. You will have a 25% to 50% return. The problem with that strategy, as much sense as it makes, is that it's no fun for a legitimate speculator. Remember the old Rod Stewart song lyrics, "There's got to be passion."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • I'm so gullible that the mere thought of any conspiracy piques my vivid imagination.
    Which naturally leads me to ask where the buying in the averages came from at this morning's open.
    We do have a pending FOMC meeting this week.
    Here's the answer:
    The buying was a direct pump from the Federal Reserve.
    Just as all hell breaks loose on the world stage.
    Calm, soothe, and massage the markets.
    Repeat as necessary.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

FB
71.29+2.02(+2.92%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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