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Fairpoint Communications, Inc. Message Board

ofir_menkes 411 posts  |  Last Activity: May 30, 2016 1:23 AM Member since: Jul 27, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Logical Path Forward

    by justicebw May 27, 2016 9:24 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 30, 2016 1:23 AM Flag

    you do realize that until a few month ago, Argentina was a place that most companies shun away from?
    part of the problem here (as I see it) was the constant bleeding of money due to the simple fact that on its own, the company could never invest enough to sustain their Argentina infrastructure and overhead. for the sake of building a sizable operation (at least back office wise... operations cost more than they have...), there was a constant dilution. it was really quite abusive, but it is over now. now its a matter of time to find someone who wants to take head on the task of making Curamhuele a self sustaining project (cash flow wise) using the existing infrastructure Madalena built.
    You are right that blocks in which you are not calling the shots are not really suitable for a junior developer short on cash.
    as far as credit - I believe that Argentina based financing should be quite expensive. I would actually be taking it as almost last resort (last being dilutive offering - thank you, TD...).
    anyway, what do I know.

  • Reply to

    Logical Path Forward

    by justicebw May 27, 2016 9:24 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 29, 2016 9:18 AM Flag

    Your suggestions make a lot of sense, but so do maglan's ideas. anyone of them will be great. it is only a slight issue, as in finding the companies who would join in with this massive undertaking. good luck to the company and to us, its investors.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 29, 2016 8:06 AM Flag

    yes, and you forgot that its investors invested $1.4B for the right to own the projects that sell electricity.
    using your logic any return on or of an investment is just a winning.

  • Reply to

    908 Million

    by sumguytang May 26, 2016 10:08 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 11:49 AM Flag

    I have been accused of many things, but being sensitive has never been one of them...
    there are multiple ways here to avoid ch 11. ch 11 is not in anyone's interest. the problem is how do you eliminate the unsecured debt without creating a huge CODI problem. there are ways for that too. the decline in equity prices was probably largely related to CODI (plus the usual worries), because you have $700M outstanding and only 100M shares - creating a potential CODI event of after tax $2 per share. the banks have over here more than enough assets for their $650M. how do you not pay the unsecured note interest in july is the uncertainty now. if they can come up with a reasonable way of doing it, they are good.

  • Reply to

    908 Million

    by sumguytang May 26, 2016 10:08 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 10:45 AM Flag

    he is not correct. the line & term do not become payable in one second. the company did move to short term the debt in order to reflect the fact they will have a breach of terms of the loan later this year. once they make a new amendment, they will be fine. this is gaap stuff that does not change the reality of the business (which is problematic enough as is).

  • Reply to

    whiskey8860..

    by starteam003 May 25, 2016 5:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 9:23 AM Flag

    true. I hope plaza manages to move the casa radio project. if they do that (and do not just sell it at reduced book value), the +75M euros should be able to move their bond well bellow the 100M euros mark left to pay and they will still have operating malls to generate income or be sold to finance the newer projects.

  • Reply to

    $3 gas a disaster only for ARP?

    by chegerar May 26, 2016 3:24 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 4:49 AM Flag

    the return you are mentioning is wellhead returns, not all in. add interest, lease for holding for years the land, infrastructure to tie-in, cost of overhead (management etc.).
    dry gas needs more than $4 to survive long term.

  • Reply to

    whiskey8860..

    by starteam003 May 25, 2016 5:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 4:43 AM Flag

    I believe you, but the money to pay their bonds will not come from there. the equity of the bucharest hotels plus the sale of the bangalore land will net enough to almost finish paying the larger bond. the other (smaller one) will be paid by the chennai sale later, the tiberius land and maybe some of plaza's equity (once it appreciates). gamida cell will be sold - probably well before it finish phase 3. their nicord is a potential real advance.
    you are right that insightec is very exciting, but you can not pay your bills with dreams. until it starts making money, it is still a dream - a great one, but still a dream.

  • Reply to

    Oil will hit $50 by this Friday 5/27

    by hougerkris May 25, 2016 4:21 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 3:50 AM Flag

    you have your opinions, others have theirs. that is what the market is all about.
    fyi - if interest rates will go up over the next 0-20 years (reversal of some of the last 30 years), AT&T and VZ will lose a lot of profits to interest. pensions will also be a burden. anyway, good luck.

  • Reply to

    908 Million

    by sumguytang May 26, 2016 10:08 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 3:45 AM Flag

    I know that for GAAP you are right. I said that in my mind it is. a balance sheet shows it as equity (expensive one, but still).

  • Reply to

    $3 gas a disaster only for ARP?

    by chegerar May 26, 2016 3:24 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 27, 2016 3:29 AM Flag

    0% return is not a breakeven point. money cost you money and time cost you money.

  • Reply to

    whiskey8860..

    by starteam003 May 25, 2016 5:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 3:56 PM Flag

    you need to remember that this company is regarded as a suspect in Israel due to the prior ceo and majority holder. zisser have created mountains of debt and everyone lost on holding his debt. many will not own it on principle, but this is a very different company. different people and less layers of activity and complexity. good luck to them and to the company.

  • Reply to

    menkes!!

    by starteam003 May 26, 2016 1:13 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 3:52 PM Flag

    no, it means that by that time value will be exposed. that is the time the bonds have to be paid.
    at that point all that is left will be equity. its hard to argue with equity. equity can become dividend or a buyback.

  • Reply to

    ARP Vs LGCY

    by chegerar May 20, 2016 9:09 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 3:08 PM Flag

    try looking at some equity of ev energy. much more solid. less debt (almost no hedges... scary).

  • Reply to

    Bond Prices

    by backtrade Mar 16, 2016 12:25 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 3:04 PM Flag

    you should also look at the memorial production partners bonds (

  • Reply to

    Bond Prices

    by backtrade Mar 16, 2016 12:25 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 2:59 PM Flag

    when you call schwab for their fixed income, you need to tell them the cusip.

  • Reply to

    Bond Prices

    by backtrade Mar 16, 2016 12:25 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 2:57 PM Flag

    google "finra bond center" and search for "atlas energy". you will find a number of entries, but only 2 are current and trading. they trade for

  • Reply to

    908 Million

    by sumguytang May 26, 2016 10:08 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    why would anyone call preferred debt? preferred is part of equity for gaap purposes. I believe it is a liability, but it is not a bond. when you do the new agreement amendments with the banks, you are not on the clock. once you fail their tests, you are - until a new amendment is created to correct the situation.
    out of the $900M of short term debt, $250M is second lien, which have not got much more cards to play than the unsecured (they are behind the banks).

  • Reply to

    Appaloosa - New 3.7M share position

    by don_king4eva May 13, 2016 5:18 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    I think Blackrock will lose money as well. its a true magic - the money is gone and that's it. nobody made any money and no value was created here with the exception of the commissions. they bid on many projects very low numbers, so only some of the projects that got started will get finished. a lot of sunk costs will be gone. some of the other projects will never get finished, because nobody trusts sunedison anymore. its a mystery to me what anyone here was thinking. the only true values are the yieldco companies and the one who will get the best deal will be global, due to their cash position and the $231M theft from them.

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by gb42bythec May 17, 2016 2:58 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 26, 2016 10:34 AM Flag

    would you know if fcx is hedged for production from this well? if so, does the trust's revenue (3.6% of production) gets effected by this?
    Would you think that fcx would buy it back at $0.25 per share if the trust remains at current price level (as their option states)?
    thanks in advance.

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