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Constellation Energy Partners, Ltd. Şti. Message Board

ofir_menkes 423 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 19, 2016 7:16 PM Member since: Jul 27, 2008
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  • Reply to

    popping

    by runday17 Jun 17, 2016 7:45 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 19, 2016 7:16 PM Flag

    I wonder who is the short seller who sells this short at less than 10. that seller will become an ex seller with a large debt in less than a year.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 19, 2016 5:34 PM Flag

    I can tell you that the value is much higher than current price. regarding the cost price, I would not know if the value is higher or not.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 18, 2016 2:33 PM Flag

    what killed the elbit stock price was the debt restructuring under which bondholders were issued 95% of the equity and there was a 20:1 reverse split done.
    hedges do not hold forever, but they give you time for ng to get to supply & demand balance.
    regarding memp - I do not know when it would go back to 24+, but I am sure that in a year it would be much higher than its share price now.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 18, 2016 12:45 AM Flag

    point 1: elbit - many years ago, this company belonged to a company called elron and they were composed of a few smaller companies, a defense company and a company called elscint which was a medium size medical imaging company. the company got restructured and split into elbit systems (the defense part) which was later merged with another israeli defense company (el op). elscint was sold to ge medical and whatever was left got sold to a company belonging to a real estate names Motti Zisser. Zisser purchased the company using debt and issued lots of dividends from Elbit Imaging in order to pay down his debt. he also got the company invested big time in eastern europe and India (through majority ownership in a company called Plaza Centers NV) and in hotels in Europe. he and Elbit medical accumulated too much debt and two private equity companies took over the company through ownership of the debt and a debt restructuring. now the company has a manageable debt load and some decent assets left, so it is gradually monetizing some assets and pay down debt (or buy bonds at modest discount as well).
    point 2: memp - I believe the notes here will be paid at face value. the quality of the assets is good. they have a lot of debt and very good hedges. they will need to have a few years of lower distributions and reduce their debt load. memp is exposed to both oil and gas, so it is not a natural gas play or an oil play.
    as far as other frackers - natural gas will have to get much higher in order to allow them to get money for serious new capex. the lowest ng production cost between the shales in $3.7 and you have to add $1 of discount for that northeastern production. the $3.5 production would come out of eagle ford (with $50 oil and decent ngl price would be economic) or some parts of Louisiana and east texas (if Comstock is right, Haynesville parts could qualify for that).
    bottom line: shale is expensive and it is not the magic potion the chk's have been telling about.

  • Reply to

    calmy or anyone..

    by starteam003 Jun 17, 2016 11:30 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 17, 2016 11:37 AM Flag

    yes. in here technicals do not work. this company is held by major shareholders who did not sell or buy over the last 2.5 years. changes in price would come during the company hitting milestones of value creation.

  • Reply to

    Nice price surge

    by dubi_calmy Jun 16, 2016 11:32 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 4:02 PM Flag

    the buyback is old news for the most part.

  • Reply to

    Nice price surge

    by dubi_calmy Jun 16, 2016 11:32 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 1:29 PM Flag

    the options that the ceo of insightec is receiving are based on $2B exercise valuation. he already bought some of insightec in cash before. he also founded years ago a company which got sold for over $1B in this field (mako). not exactly same field, but he knows all the right people.

  • Reply to

    Reorg

    by cubemeister2001 Jun 14, 2016 11:36 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 1:24 PM Flag

    yes, but at this point at the cycle, it is so much harder for secured to take away the entire company.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 9:02 AM Flag

    yes, but most of the assets there are incomplete. that is the problem.

  • Reply to

    Global

    by as0nwecc Jun 14, 2016 3:30 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 9:01 AM Flag

    what the skeptics are saying is that sunedison, by not supplying the numbers to terp, is creating a danger of tripping the credit terms.
    cash should be much higher than $200M by now (they have kept 6 month of dividends).

  • Reply to

    MENKES!!!

    by starteam003 Jun 15, 2016 9:46 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 8:39 AM Flag

    good luck to all of us. that is the plan.

  • Reply to

    Conf call

    by andrewulsaker Jun 13, 2016 1:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 5:44 AM Flag

    ok, see you in a few month and lets see then if there was a difference between how those two ended up, shall we?
    fyi, the guy here already sold a couple of times pipeline companies he had started, so he does kind of know what he is talking about.
    I think his resume is a bit more impressive than either mine or yours. taking that aside, past record does not guarantee future performance. I think the lenders know his resume, too.

  • Reply to

    Reorg

    by cubemeister2001 Jun 14, 2016 11:36 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 16, 2016 4:44 AM Flag

    that was a different strip price and gdp had assets that are much inferior to here. the tms is not something that will be economical until years from now (more derisking needed and much higher oil price required).

  • Reply to

    Reorg

    by cubemeister2001 Jun 14, 2016 11:36 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    that is a huge difference. no court involved, no huge fees and equity survives (bruises aside).
    arp could create a third lien bond for the accrued interest (with higher coupon with a shorter duration). anyway, if unsecured would act as pigs, they might lose everything to the $250M non public second lien. I believe those were added as a trojan horse against unsecured.

  • Reply to

    Global

    by as0nwecc Jun 14, 2016 3:30 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 5:17 PM Flag

    I like global a lot due to valuation, but these projects could care less about the growth of the country. it is about how much risk exist of the government not paying the promised amounts for the delivered power and about the currency value in those countries beyond the three year hedges. this is basically an annuity and not a growth project.
    terp is at a more problematic position than glbl. they have projects running and no cash. the good news is that (as far as we can tell) they have healthy cash flow and two quarters of no dividends should build up a pretty nice buffer.

  • Reply to

    Conf call

    by andrewulsaker Jun 13, 2016 1:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 2:30 PM Flag

    the lp does not need charity. they need their assets utilized and earning revenues. they have more than enough assets to cover the debt by value, but the cash flow is now suffering. utilizing compressor units is a win-win. if you can utilize virtually idle processing unit it is the same.

  • Reply to

    MENKES!!!

    by starteam003 Jun 13, 2016 12:26 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 1:32 PM Flag

    by the way - thanks for the compliment. lets hope we are right...

  • Reply to

    Conf call

    by andrewulsaker Jun 13, 2016 1:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 1:30 PM Flag

    you made a trade, but probably lost a much bigger return over time. the banks have an healthy general partner here to deal with. the reason that the private company is trying to help the lp, is because they are involved in backstopping the debt.
    you are jumping from extreme optimism to the opposite side quite quickly.
    over here the risk is probably much lower than in the unsecured bonds on arp.
    just saying.
    if ng does what it supposed to, the customers here will have all the incentives in the world to drill the Haynesville.
    anyway, time will tell.

  • Reply to

    Global

    by as0nwecc Jun 14, 2016 3:30 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    yes, but global still has its money liquid. terp has invested its money and now has debt terms it has to comply with (which sunedison is doing everything possible to sabotage).

  • Reply to

    Priced at close to half book value

    by bottomfisher2012 Jun 13, 2016 8:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 15, 2016 12:48 PM Flag

    sunedison is the manager and a shaeholder. thats it. they are close to losing their control due to their inability to perform its duties.
    none of the debt could replace equity due to no insolvency. chapter 11 would be a tool to shield equity from opportunistic debt holders in a case like this (remember ggp?). and that is a worst case scenario (which I doubt has any chance of happening). there is a limit to how much damage a manager can inflict on the shareholders before the Delaware court will have to intervene.

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