probably he got swept in by accident. this one is for someone who could stomach 5 years to maturity of its investment (2.5 years left). same as investing in a private equity fund (because private equity funds are the ones managing it and calling the shots...).
worst thing that would happen is that cash flow will get trapped. bond holders are not close to projects, so I doubt they will have an incentive to create a bigger mess.
ironically, sunedison not supplying the financials would be a perfect excuse for the yieldco to go to Delaware and get the court over there to take away sunedison's control over the operations.
life is sometimes full of irony.
which is great for them - they will survive. sxe is a much more stable business.
if logic wins - there will be no chapter 11. if there was, and due to rapidly improving ng forward strip, the court will send them back to figure out how to make it happen. equity will get diluted. that is a given. second and first mortgage have more than enough assets to get paid over time. that is a given (especially due to getting closer and closer to being able to hedge at economic values all those shut in wells).
the question is: what does unsecured need to get in order to agree to accrue its interest in 2016? that will come at the expense of the common and the preferred (which would probably be forced into conversion to common or agree for a very long deferment). the amount of unsecured would probably be addressed by converting some into new preferred or new equity.
that is a logical and cheap solution for everyone. even for the shorts.. (who probably own unsecured debt).
the ng hedges are worth much less than they did, but the banks have much more confidence in the ability of arp to generate cashflow going forward. this should not be a very long ordeal. the question is what to do about the interest of the unsecured debt. equity will suffer, unsecured will get some sweetener. that is my guess.
because they negotiate. that is how they start. they will be happy with capturing all the cashflow. they know ng prices are going higher. they want fees and accelerated payments.
this is not going to be a high flyer. it is not that kind of a company. it is going to trend higher over time as they monetize their assets, pay back their bonds and have leftover assets for their equity holders (you, me and the rest). I told you a long time ago this is not something that will happen quickly.
there are multiple logical events that will happen and will create liquidity for elbit, but the exact timing is something that depends on buyers showing up with the right numbers.
1. closing of the Bangalore land sale (regardless of what I think of the price) will create 100M NIS liquidity both for elbit and for plaza. as plaza pays back its bonds (partially), its value will go up and elbit owns 44% of it.
2. finding a different venue for selling or joint venture partner for chennai land (worth $12M for elbit and $12M for plaza).
3. what would be a fair price for the Tiberius land? that land could be worth any number (high or low).
4. when will they monetize their Boucharest complex? who knows when they decide its time to cash in. in the mean time they are buying bonds back at 10% discount and drawing against an increased mortgage (up to 97M Euro - now at 85M Euro) while waiting for the NIS to be weaker against the Euro. total value of the complex could be 150M Euro (at this weird inflated environment).
5. the biotech companies are just doing their thing and moving along. next year should finally be a breakthrough year for Insightec, but a chance at a huge increase in visibility should only come at 2018 (results of tremor phase 3).
conclusion: hold and forget - or continue to watch paint dry. up to you.
if you mentally survive it, I have a feeling in a year time you will be bragging about how much you are up on memp. just a hunch.
funny. he is probably buying (or waiting to see how low it would go to buy more). nothing has changed in this company (which is more of an annuity).
the sunedison connection would probably be broken through the lawsuit in Delaware.
rigs will probably go up only when producers can hedge for $3.5 for two years. only at that point do they know they will make money on those wells and banks / bod will feel comfortable allocating capex. the fast and loose capex days are over for now. people need to know they will make money before they drill.
I think you are mistaken about what the company needs: they need ng to go up and oil to remain at 50. if that happens, no associated gas will flood the market. the price of oil being too high for a long time caused producers to overproduce gas, knowing that oil production alone is good enough to pay back for the well. this is changing now and this is the biggest upside for AZURE.
as far as waiting to die - hopefully you are wrong. they have underutilized assets they could sell (probably they are waiting on better pricing). I wonder how much the private company could utilize some of the underutilized assets.
as far as merging the two together - I am not an expert, but on face value it makes sense. especially since the limited partner is already backstopping the debt of the public lp. by merging they will also get the rewards / upside.
if oil goes up, they could either operate or sell their transloading sites, but the gains will be much higher if ng goes up to $3.5+ (which I believe will happen by year end).
like in any pipeline company, commodity prices will determine the results. over here at least the valuation fits the risk. in most other mlp entities the valuation is way too high.
time will tell.
I doubt it. alternative energy is a nice name and economical at some places, but base load will be coal, natural gas until further notice. coal is being retired, so natural gas is the default choice until further notice. anyway, that is my opinion.
thank you for showing up here. you have been, for the most part, the best way to know that we are closer to bottom than top. keep up the good work and I hope you are investing the opposite way to what you write.
otherwise, you will become poor.
and a tough winter is now expected. that is the other side of the mirror for natural gas. a cold winter and a hot summer plus two years of low prices plus low price of oil could be a nasty combination for a lot of people and industries who have come to see natural gas as something that should be very cheap.
as soon as the checkbooks were closed for the chesapeakes of the world, who were claiming to mitigate their losses on existing production by producing more, the clock started ticking. hot summer and cold winter are just pushing forward the time frame. the basic thing is that producing cost money and if natural gas does not cost enough to justify its production, it should not be produced.
made a mistake about the repurchase price of the bonds - the first lot was at 66c. after that, they bought at all prices and they decided to stop all the dividends for 2016 and use that money (35M allowed by the banks) to buy more bonds. the bonds are now at 52.
you should learn to take money off the table at the time everything looks like a sue bet - that is the time that is the most dangerous.
thats the spirit. the problem with situations like that is that the wait can be a long thing and the reward would be a not so slow process.