I think you need to recheck your numbers. I think the u.s is now producing over 8 million bpd, which is a
large increase from 5 years ago. the problem with the shale production (which is almost all the increase)
is that it is not a very durable production. production falls well over 50% in the first year. if prices stay for
long bellow 85-90, capex will not go to drill and within a year the production number will stop climbing
and maybe go down a bit. shale is a very expensive proposition. unless you are required by the lease
agreement to drill, why would you if the price is bellow 85-90?
Anyway, that is only my opinion.