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Rexahn Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

ofir_menkes 505 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 19, 2016 7:16 PM Member since: Jul 27, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Revenue for Q2 vs Q1, to buy or not?

    by greg_sorter May 23, 2016 10:15 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    its not that simple. it takes some time for companies to decide and drill for gas. azure waits on drillers to drill and on ngl volumes to grow. by the end of the year, it should get better. right now some of their revenues are the mvc revenues. they are already talking to the drillers in their areas about wells later this year. it depends a lot on the price. if train 1 at sabine pass ramps up ok and we have a hot summer, the area should be doing nicely due to low discount vs henry hub (low transportation cost) and low break even point.
    there is risk here, but the reward could be great.

  • Reply to

    Moody's downgrades ATLS bonds again.

    by jrfillion May 23, 2016 9:14 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 9:38 AM Flag

    it does not affect the bonds. if these people would have done it 2 years ago based on borrowing money to pay dividends, I think everyone would have thanked them. now doing it is beyond sad - its not even funny.
    atls does have bonds - they have two private loans.

  • Reply to

    ARP Board

    by asburyparkrentals May 18, 2016 10:27 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 8:48 AM Flag

    I believe preferred is not subjected to CODI. only common units are. please check online, but I never heard of that issue with preferred. preferred gets interest, not distribution.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 3:09 AM Flag

    they should still at that point have 50-100M NIS of cash as well.
    if you look at the math, you will notice that the equity should be at that point with $4 per share of value. knowing how private equity work, they would try to float value as soon as possible, so they can move on. they do not have time to play around - their funds are limited in life span.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 2:09 AM Flag

    they are making the right moves. in my mind elbit can pay off its own debts within 18 months. the question is what is left for the equity holders.
    in order to payoff their debts, they will selloff their bucharest complex (probably 2017 towards end) and it should bring in cash of 50M euros. how much more, I am not sure. being that 2016 will be the first year that all the hotels in the complex are available for a full year of business and the Romania economy is doing well (especially affecting the casino in the complex), it should have a good EBITDA. I hope it brings in a lot more than 50M euros (remember, there will be 97M euros of mortgage against the complex).
    my assumption is that the extra money from the refinancing of 97M euros will finish the Bank Hapohalim debt.
    Bond H (trading in Tel Aviv) has a principle left of ~360M NIS. the $25M from the bangalore land sale plus the equity from bucharest should cover that (assuming euro will be higher against NIS in a few month) with even some potential left over.
    At this point you have only 260M NIS of bond I left. assets against it will be:
    Chennai land for either development or sale. worth 10M euros.
    Tiberius land for hotel development (prime location, but greens are against and government can be very slow to approve). worth ~ 10M euros.
    Insightec (20%) - very promising technology company with a clearer road map for a successful penetration to its prospective markets. management changed, investments made, released from GE's exclusive distribution agreements. this thing would be worth more than everything else together, but patience still needed. not for nothing, york invested $60M out of its own money in it (for ~30%). that was a distressed valuation (Insightec was in distress - running out of money).
    Gamida Cell (16%) - stem cell company. will start phase 3 later in 2016 for their product nicord. has great potential.
    Plaza (44%) - will be worth 30M euros.

  • Reply to

    DIVIDEND?

    by ragos15468 May 17, 2016 11:34 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 1:47 AM Flag

    the value is there. if it goes down, I would average down. this is not the company with the highest upside potential, but in this case it is fairly easy to see how the company can make its shares go up by 100% by basically doing close to nothing. all they need to do is play by the rules at the bankruptcy and win some decent projects for cheap prices and go after sunedison to either contribute the 500MW free projects (as per contract with investors) or lose its holding and control at global.
    I think these are fairly simple actions.

  • Reply to

    DIVIDEND?

    by ragos15468 May 17, 2016 11:34 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 1:43 AM Flag

    he might need it to defend himself in the Delaware court against the apaloosa lawsuit regarding fiduciary duties... so far he is doing a fair job for global, but sunedison really got him in trouble with the $231M. everyone involved in what transpired is at risk now.

  • Reply to

    Court Case / India Projects

    by don_king4eva May 20, 2016 7:29 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 23, 2016 1:38 AM Flag

    well, let me start by saying I am not a lawyer. I have followed some bankruptcy cases and I can almost assure you the $231M will not end as simply unsecured debt. the problem is with how sunedison got global to make a decision to basically give away that kind of money without any security (such as liens) to the trustee of global - sunedison. there is a pretty solid case for breaking of fiduciary duties against both sunedison, its appointed directors at global and sunedison's officers involved in replacing the bod of global and lying to the newly appointed ones (if you believe those - otherwise they are all equally guilty).
    from my understanding, the problem is how to convince global that whatever money they will pay to complete the projects will end up doing just that and not go to cover cash flow short falls at sunedison. global is asking to make sure those projects are untouched by any creditor (especially as they become complete and valuable...). if my understanding is right, with the additional payments required, global might end up paying appx. $1M per MW, which is very low. the PPA is also pretty low (which is how sunedison won the bids - surprise - yet again), but its economical under the right cost.
    do not forget - these were not part of the close to 500MW that sunedison was supposed to give global free of debt. these are purchased projects.

  • Reply to

    A Bold Idea for Genworth

    by joeschmo_4 May 20, 2016 10:57 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 22, 2016 9:09 AM Flag

    sorry, did not see that. would you know which ones they bought back?
    this is great news. the more they support their bond prices, the more chance they will have to refinance, if need be. that adds flexibility which gives a better price for their assets.

  • Reply to

    GOING TO $0.001

    by angry.white_racist May 21, 2016 2:40 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 22, 2016 6:31 AM Flag

    I would too, but I just can't stand those types. you want to short - short. you want to go long - go long. don't try to scare people off (or pump a stock either). you have information that might be adding value - please inform me.
    you want to pollute a message board - go away.

  • Reply to

    A Bold Idea for Genworth

    by joeschmo_4 May 20, 2016 10:57 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 22, 2016 4:52 AM Flag

    nobody wants legacy ltc. only time will cure that one. costs are soaring and the government is encouraging the trend. they think it helps gdp... I guess it does, but it sure does not help anyone else.

  • Reply to

    A Bold Idea for Genworth

    by joeschmo_4 May 20, 2016 10:57 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 22, 2016 4:49 AM Flag

    this is good news - USMI will not go at a discount. whoever buys it would have to pay up. this is a market consolidation play and those do not come cheap.

  • Reply to

    A Bold Idea for Genworth

    by joeschmo_4 May 20, 2016 10:57 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 22, 2016 4:43 AM Flag

    they have close to $4B in bonds at the holding company level. the dividend they are getting from their subsidiaries are not enough to pay them back as they come due. that is the issue of solvency here.
    the u.s mortgage company should be worth much more than book value. it should be worth 1.5 - 2 probably, which would finish most of their issues and would leave mostly the 2066 bonds outstanding (which I am shocked they are not buying back).
    the canada and australia mortgage insurance units are right now a bit problematic valuation wise. they generate good returns, but they serve markets which are relying heavily on commodities. no way genworth should sell them (as they partially did with the australia one).
    as far as the other runoff assets, long term care etc., time should either make or break them. higher interest rates might save them, but I doubt rising rates would go up fast enough to compensate for accelerating expenses at the ltc (needless to say, life is tied into ltc).
    its sad and stupid. its most stupid to think that management who has been doing so many mistakes have been so well compensated for it.

  • Reply to

    GOING TO $0.001

    by angry.white_racist May 21, 2016 2:40 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 22, 2016 4:21 AM Flag

    was waiting to see your kind come here. usually that is a sign of close to a bottom.
    I am sure that once the end of the year is here and EBITDA is better we will not hear from you again.
    fyi, would you sell me some shares at 1 cent? if you think it is overvalued at that price, why not do it?
    I remember you aliases from sxe around the bottom. when sxe (in 2-4 years) is well above 10, I am sure you will be busy (under some new alias) trying to harass some other poor shareholders in some other company.

  • Reply to

    Tim Go Purchase

    by budfoxtrading May 16, 2016 9:01 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 21, 2016 2:26 PM Flag

    please rephrase - do you mean its not possible for them to burn cash? do you mean they could? do you mean in the refineries?
    there is no secret that smaller refineries at that area will suffer from reduced supply of cheap heavy canadian. right now, the value here is in the specialty chemical business. thats a relatively stable niche business with good margins and might increase margins if the feed stock cost goes down.
    this is a somewhat integrated business, do not forget. I would prefer the bonds now. if they buy back bonds, equity might have CODI issue down the road.

  • Reply to

    ARP CEO on CC: Our Hedging is helping us!

    by chazooks May 17, 2016 12:07 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 21, 2016 5:05 AM Flag

    why are you so keen on legacy? I see very problems there kind of the same as over here. maybe even worse.

  • Reply to

    ARP CEO on CC: Our Hedging is helping us!

    by chazooks May 17, 2016 12:07 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 21, 2016 5:03 AM Flag

    restructuring could very well be a swap - which is technical default under moody's definitions. codi will arise from this and there are ways for the company to combat it. having the general partner owning 20+% of the common units is complicating things, but it put shareholders at the same side as the general partner (atls).
    anyway, just an observation. the risk at the equity is substantial and much less in the unsecured bonds.

  • Reply to

    ARP Board

    by asburyparkrentals May 18, 2016 10:27 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 21, 2016 12:08 AM Flag

    it makes a lot of sense for them to not allow junior any cash while a company is short on collateral value for their loans.
    mr cohen has a tough job at this time - he needs to play poker both with you (bond holders) and the banks. he has some cards , but not too many. if he has the cash to buy back some bonds, he has to scare you (the bond holder) away from your position - his job is to buy low, not high. he needs to also manage the CODI issue so that it would be the least possible amount. the question is how to balance everything.
    his greatest ally is time - time to buy bonds and weather predictions of hot summer and cold winter. even one of them could improve natural gas strip pricing and add decent hedges (which is all the company is about - predictable cash flow). if he could create 5 years of decent hedging, he would finish the bank's issue (hedged cash flow would be enough to pay down the bank's loan and that is all they care about in reality).
    right now, judging from your mindset, he is on top in the poker (and its good for us - the bond holders).
    I still think some form of swap plus bond buy back will take place. that would maximize what he can do to put arp in a better position for the future.
    hope I am reading it right and good luck to us.

  • Reply to

    ARP Board

    by asburyparkrentals May 18, 2016 10:27 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 20, 2016 11:50 PM Flag

    sorry - would be part of your accumulated profit & loss for tax purposes.

  • Reply to

    ARP Board

    by asburyparkrentals May 18, 2016 10:27 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 20, 2016 11:49 PM Flag

    it does, so if you are 40, 19.5 years from now it will be part of your cost.

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