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Rexahn Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

ofir_menkes 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 9, 2014 12:36 PM Member since: Jul 27, 2008
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  • Reply to

    jvkla and others..

    by starteam003 Jun 9, 2014 11:10 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 9, 2014 12:36 PM Flag

    Elbit Imaging is not an ongoing operations company, like companies of the kind of ge. this company is a
    bunch of assets that will (hopefully) be monetized over time and 90% of the time it will not have profits and
    the money will be done through one time events.
    The sooner you will understand it, the sooner you will adjust your expectations. hopefully gamida cell will
    become a public company within the next few month and could move on with its nicord trials and expend
    them.

  • Reply to

    Earnings: hit it out of the park

    by dylangarlichs May 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 5, 2014 6:16 PM Flag

    I am not holding my breath. the company will have to be sold at this point, unless
    a miracle happens. nobody is thinking about historic highs.
    $0.3 per share should be possible ($7.2M) for the projects.
    regarding the ormat jv: at the end of the month we could take over the project for
    nothing. they have intersected in the shallow part 265 degrees. I do not think
    scoping was done by them, but they have put $7M so far into it. I wonder if
    anyone would want to buy the company with 100% of crump (however advanced
    it is) and with New Truckhaven and two more prospects in Nevada (where NV
    should be asking for geothermal to replace their retiring coal plants).
    Just a thought. hopefully a realistic one.

  • Reply to

    Earnings: hit it out of the park

    by dylangarlichs May 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Jun 1, 2014 8:14 PM Flag

    you are right. the cash burn $0.3M per quarter. carrying value of assets does not matter.
    there are positive development in the geothermal sector in california and natural gas price is
    becoming more normal than it used to be. next month we should see what happens with
    ormat regarding crump geyser. they have $7M invested and so far encountered 265 degrees
    in shallow wells. the property should have deeper and better targets, but 265 should make it
    economic enough. I do not know if scoping was done yet.
    This year there should be a resolution for this company. hopefully it will be for the better and
    sooner rather than later.

  • ofir_menkes by ofir_menkes May 30, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    There is nothing new in the balance sheet, except that I wanted to see if Elbit has the 20M Euro in order
    to secure their holdings in plaza after the rights offering is done. it looks like they have $88M in cash and
    equivalents on a consolidated basis, which means that we need to remove 62.5% of plaza's cash and
    equivalents out of it. plaza had 33M Euro in cash & restricted deposits on its balance sheet at year end.
    They should have gotten 6M Euro from the buyers of the India mall at q1, so we should calculate the
    cash as:
    $88M - (62.5% x 1.36 (conversion from Euro to dollar) x 40M Euro) = $54M = 39.7M Euro cash.
    That looks sufficient to invest 20M Euro in plaza, but they do need to do something about any of their assets
    this year. The most direct help to plaza would be India.
    The interesting thing about the debt restructuring presentation is that they show Bangalore as providing
    25M Euro in 2015, while in Elbit's Annual report it mentioned that Bangalore was still very far from being
    executed due to still going through the Indian government. The Chennai investment is not mentioned in the
    plaza restructuring expected cash anticipation, while it is the closest to realization, as Elbit & Plaza have
    their rights registered on 75 acres out of 83, they paid for the rest and there are no issues with building in
    the area (Padur by the OMR) as far as I know. they own 80% of the interest in the land.
    Elbit estimated in their annual report that it will be built in 2015 - 2018 (through a joint venture).
    A realization of either one of the India projects in Chennai or Bangalore will generate substantial
    assistance to Plaza directly (50% of the common interest belongs to Plaza) and to Elbit directly as well.
    Good luck to the company and to us, its shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Equity with the Plaza Centers = $0.77 per share

    by anos1o May 19, 2014 11:58 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 20, 2014 1:00 PM Flag

    Your numbers are for book value. book value is a great number, but what counts is the
    liquidity and cash flow. most of their assets are not cash flow type of assets.
    I would ignore plaza center's value until the process is done and until elbit brings in
    their share of money to the rights offering. book value does not mean much if you can
    not finance your operations.
    The chennai project will provide close to $100M (elbit's share in my calculations) over
    a few years. plaza needs that money even more than elbit. the land is almost all
    secured and the money was paid for the 83 acres.
    The Bangalore project is a more long term project and could be worth close to $50M
    over a few years as well. plaza needs the money more than elbit.
    The hotels in Antwerp and Bucharest and the land in Israel are the easiest assets to
    liquidate. their value should be north of 100M euro (~$140M) (combined).
    Insightec has a lot of value, but it is not going to generate cash flow for years. its
    operations will continue to be consuming money as they are going through the
    trials and then will need to still penetrate the market. elbit has 35% through elbit
    medical.
    Gamida cell is on the table. they need to sell it to someone or try to IPO it. they need
    the money from it. elbit has 25% through elbit medical.
    Elbit has a shareholder's loan of $35M or so in elbit medical that any proceeds from
    gamida cell will have to cover before anything else. that money was supposed to
    be the money for the rights offering at plaza plus pay some debts.
    Olive technology - I do not know the value. the company has 100 employees, so
    there must be revenues and some profits there. elbit has 18%.
    As you see, the value is there (elbit's enterprise value is $350M as of right now).
    I excluded plaza, but 55% of plaza (after rights offering and 13% given to bond holders)
    should be worth over $350M over time.
    Good luck to the company and to us, its shareholders.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 12, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    The company is a play of sum of the parts. some of the parts are not visible yet.
    The hotels are very valuable. that part has almost no visibility. the Israeli land
    rights is an unknown.
    The india part is a very valuable part (once the chennai land rights are fully
    secured).
    olive software - unknown value. elbit has 18% of a company with over 100
    employees and it is unknown how much revenues they make and how much
    cash flow.
    insightec & gamida cell - a lot of value, but visibility still lacking.
    plaza centers - the company needs to finish its debt restructuring. unknown
    value to equity holders right now. holding more than elbit does in india.
    Chennai project by itself could be worth over $100M to elbit and the same to
    plaza, but yet again visibility is low. koochi is an unknown, bangalore is an
    enigma (7 years after starting to collect the land...).

  • Reply to

    where is menkes?

    by starteam003 May 3, 2014 10:26 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 5, 2014 2:24 PM Flag

    The compliance issue is the last thing to worry about. the worst case scenario is share consolidation
    (reverse split) in that case. gamida cell sale would have been a great injection of liquidity, but this is
    a part of life. valuation wise I am not worried, but the company needs to generate some liquidity.
    From their annual report it seems like the chennai project is at the point where the land is ready for
    getting in someone to construct it. I say that fact with cautions, because it has been in the works for years
    now. Elbit's value from that should be close to $50M over 4 years and plaza should get about the same
    over the same period of time.
    This company is still not as transparent as it should be as a public company.

  • Reply to

    my honest opinion..

    by starteam003 May 3, 2014 2:23 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 5, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    I have never met any of the people involved in the conversation, but
    I am sure you could all take a cold shower and calm down a bit.

  • Reply to

    my honest opinion..

    by starteam003 May 3, 2014 2:23 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes May 5, 2014 1:31 PM Flag

    You have to make sure that you understand what you are invested in. this company has assets and
    liabilities. I still believe that the value of the assets is large enough for a margin of safety.
    jvkla is right that you should not be invested here due to emotions. leave the emotions out and
    hopefully the wait will not be too long for some other liquidity event to happen.
    good luck to the company and to us, its shareholders.

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