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Diana Containerships Inc. (DCIXV) Message Board

ofir_menkes 36 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 7 minutes ago Member since: Jul 27, 2008
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  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 1 hour 33 minutes ago
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes 1 hour 7 minutes ago Flag

    There is nothing that is safe to say. my personal feeling is that as things move, the stock price will
    react. as assets are realized and debts reduced, so will the price go.
    If Israel's economy goes into recession (personally I think it is closer than people realize), the NIS will
    lose value. that would be good for Elbit (unfortunately - Israel is my home) as it would help revive the
    tourism proposition in Israel and would help pay debts back (debts are in NIS, assets in Euro and Dollar).
    I do not want to lead you on. there are risks here. I think they will do fine, but it is not a given. there are
    multiple variables baing Plaza with its debts, the hotels with their non recourse, the medical part, the land
    in Tiberias. this is a company with assets who are carrying debt and have excess equity value. the question
    is will the market prices go with Elbit. so far so good, but you count your winnings on the way out of the
    casino, not a minute before.
    Good luck.

  • Reply to

    menkes!!

    by starteam003 6 hours ago
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes 1 hour 48 minutes ago Flag

    At least we agree on something... I wish you a pleasant weekend.

  • Reply to

    menkes!!

    by starteam003 6 hours ago
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes 3 hours ago Flag

    You are right on one thing - there is a lien on all assets of both Plaza and Elbit as far as paying
    down the bonds before any dividend can go out (thank god for that - I prefer less debt before
    people start playing games paying dividends that later become very expensive...).

  • Reply to

    menkes!!

    by starteam003 6 hours ago
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes 3 hours ago Flag

    You are talking about Plaza Centers. they have two groups of loans:
    1. secured loans to banks (mortgages secured by operating malls - less than 70% average LTV).
    these are secured and non recourse loans.
    2. the bonds in Israel and Poland (over 1BN NIS) secured by the rest of the assets.
    Needless to say the lower the Shekel, the better off PLaza is.
    Interest expense = malls servicing their mortgage, bond interest is predicated on selling
    assets.

    Elbit has 200M NIS loan to Bank Hapohalim and appx 650M NIS due in about 5 years.

    I am sure you know their assets very well, since you basically are saying they will not be able
    to get enough money to pay down the debt... as far as paying the interest, Elbit has to pay the
    interest on the one bond (appx 6.5% * 500M NIS) and the Hapohalim loan (which has a lower
    interest rate than the bond, but has a yearly amortization of the loan itself).

    What happens in reality is beyond my ability to predict. I am not as fortunate as you are to
    believe I can predict with precision the future.

  • Reply to

    also menkes...

    by starteam003 Sep 17, 2014 2:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 17, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Thank you and you need to relax. no investment is worth the amounts of emotion and time
    you are putting into it. live your life and let time deal with your investment here.

  • Reply to

    also menkes...

    by starteam003 Sep 17, 2014 2:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 17, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    I am not able to predict, but I will give you my opinion:
    1. The assets will be liquidated over the next 5 years (for the most part) in my opinion.
    2. Liquidity events (asset sales and floating) will have an effect on the price.
    3. Their debt is structured in a way that will give them 5 years before maturities.
    4. Insightec already have some approvals for a few indications (mostly in Europe). finishing the
    Essential Tremors phase 3 in 2015 will give them a huge amount of visibility. it is a relatively simple
    and risk free (plus low cost compared to any operation) operation and there are many patients that
    suffer from it. all indications (that I know of) look good (based on the fact York capital injected $37M
    of fresh money) should look good for that.
    Another thing to watch is Gamida Cell - if their phase 2 goes well (should know in 2015), Elbit will get
    over $30M as a repayment of shareholder's loans from Elbit Medical (which will get 22% * $165M +
    future royalties if everything goes well - if and if...).
    Part of what will happen in 2015 (if both trials are ok) is that Elbit Tech will become a pure play on
    Insightec (Novartis has the option to buy Gamida Cell) with potential upside of royalties. that could
    be rolled into Insightec (owns 36% of it) and that could be floated as a company in which Elbit owns
    36% * 85% = 30%. anyway, my gut feeling is telling me that the plan looks like that.
    5. With an asset rich and cashflow poor company you need to wait for years. we are talking up to 5 years.
    Lets hope for the best.

  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 Sep 16, 2014 7:43 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 17, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Insightec is a company that will just finish the trial at the end of 2015.
    This is a marathon, not a sprint. you should have never went all in.
    If you lost, cut some losses and leave some. always keep dry powder.
    Temporary (hopefully) losses are much more tolerable when you do
    not go all in. you are being thought an expensive, but very useful, lesson.
    Part of what is going on (in my opinion) is the exit of the investors who
    were creditors and do not believe in the company's assets. time will
    tell and I hope that you next adventure will incorporate the lessons
    from this one. leave some and cut your losses on some.

  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 Sep 16, 2014 7:43 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 17, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    If you can not stand the heat, do not invest. this company is just a basket of assets. this is
    not a real operating company. the right question is: are these assets worth more than
    enterprise value. I believe the answer is a big yes and the Shekel movement could help
    if it were to continue and persist until such time as assets are sold and bonds are paid.

  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 Sep 16, 2014 7:43 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 17, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    The assets are still the same assets, the liabilities are the same. there is an issue with their stores that
    represent Mango in Israel and someone else wants the license (which expires next year). I did not and do
    not think that those stores were ever anything that makes sense to Elbit. if they could give the stores and
    get compensated for the outstanding credit (part of the Bank Hapohalim loan to Elbit - I think to the tune
    of 60M NIS) they will be better off.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 16, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    When assets are being marked to market every quarter, you have noise. During the debt
    restructuring Plaza marked things down like crazy. real numbers will be visible only when they
    sell something. until then, everything is a guess. my guess is that the asset value in what is
    left will end up being much larger than the debts.
    It will take awhile to get those values exposed. I do not think DK would have gone also into the
    equity (backstopping the rights offering) if they did not think the value was there.
    What you have is the active malls at LTV of of less than 0.65 for the bank debt (and servicing them)
    and you have the rest of the assets against the bonds. those assets include India, Casa Radio,
    the Belgrade project etc.
    Anyway, that is what Plaza is now. I am guessing that with a few partial exits (2015 - Riga and
    maybe partners into Casa Radio and Belgrade + Chennai projects finally starting), they should
    be able to reduce their bond debt by close to 50% and still be exposed to those projects with less
    risk and reward.

  • ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 15, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    You are something else. I thought I was the only one who
    says things like that with a straight face to people (when
    they deserve it...).

  • Reply to

    we have 2 great PR!!!

    by starteam003 Sep 14, 2014 10:27 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 15, 2014 11:55 AM Flag

    http://plazacenters.com/downloads/press_2013/2013_11_14_Plaza_sale_of_Koregaon_Park_Plaza.pdf
    I think this might be a repeat (or maybe finally a close) of the deal from 2013.
    I believe they also sold in Romania a piece of land (probably to the competitor who will build
    a power center 50 meters away from there...) for 3.5M Euro (inline with book value after a write
    down in 2012).
    http://plazacenters.com/downloads/press_2014/2014_09_04_Targu_Mures_sale.pdf
    Anyway, lets hope Plaza is on its way to more substantial raising of liquidity / reducing bond
    debt levels.

  • Reply to

    menkes..

    by starteam003 Sep 9, 2014 2:05 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 9, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    Thanks. you might be right...

  • Reply to

    menkes...

    by starteam003 Sep 9, 2014 9:24 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 9, 2014 1:51 PM Flag

    By the way, I wish myself luck as well. I am still a shareholder (have not sold any)...

  • Reply to

    menkes...

    by starteam003 Sep 9, 2014 9:24 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 9, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    To all it may concern: prophecy was given to the fools after the second temple was destroyed...
    All that I ever said over here is that I did as much homework as I could and it looks to me that the
    combined value of those assets is much higher than the enterprise value of Elbit.
    Would that gap disappear tomorrow? probably not. the assets are mostly not income bearing
    in nature (lands - both directly and through Plaza, hotels which are servicing their own debt
    but have large value surplus and Biotech companies who are very promising, but do not have
    sales yet), but the debt does cost money.
    I do believe that the value gap would be eventually narrowed, but when is a matter for prophecy and
    I am not qualified for that subject.
    I wish you all good luck and for the company to be able to gain liquidity sooner than later through
    asset sales (hopefully at decent prices...).

  • Reply to

    Next (and final) support level = 3.20 to 3.40

    by jvkla Sep 4, 2014 5:35 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 9, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    Here is something to think about: usually in a case of debt restructuring (with a large loss for equity) there
    will be a lot of selling pressure at the end of the year. in this case I think that during the debt conversion
    (which was a taxable event in Israel) the tax loss or benefits were recognized, so the only thing that could
    affect would be window dressing and some former bond holder who have not out yet got out.
    In a sense I wish that the holding in Plaza would go to 40+%. Elbit needs to stop the silly consolidation of
    the financial reports. why should it take two hours to figure out what is actually going on in Elbit?
    Plaza needs to have a dominant activist investor in its equity. that is not what Elbit is. they need to try and
    market their larger opportunities (mostly Casa radio and Belgrad) to outside large investors, remain with
    a minority and pay part of their bonds. doing that would get cheaper financing for the projects.
    Casa Radio has (so far) 130M Euros in it (for 75%). even if you go down to 25% and get the project moving,
    you could probably get enough in cash (for the part of the ownership) to pay quite a bit of the bonds.
    Finally the shekel is starting to move down. lets hope it continues and become a (very logical) trend.
    I hope DK becomes the activist in Plaza that I believe is needed.

  • Reply to

    Cash on Hand

    by bdinvest1 Aug 28, 2014 11:29 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 5, 2014 10:17 AM Flag

    Than give back the money and keep it empty. either way,
    unless a very compelling opportunity emerges by the end of
    the year, the money should be given back.
    In such a case the corporation still exist and so is most of the
    money (which does belong to the shareholders and not to
    you).

  • Reply to

    Got it wrong jvkla again???

    by dubi_calmy Aug 29, 2014 11:52 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 4, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    If the balance sheet would have meant anything, the company would not have been where it is...
    The assets have the same value as they did a few days ago (with the exception of gamida cell
    and insightec who actually are worth more than a few weeks ago - they are now fully funded).
    Plaza is a company with assets which are not liquid right now. any value is as good as any other
    right now. if the Romania economy continues to do ok, the assets there (which are a key for
    plaza) will command a better price.

  • Reply to

    ofir_menkes

    by robertmonement Sep 3, 2014 12:45 PM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 3, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    I will try. the news are not frequent and it is like watching paint dry at times, but it is important to not lose
    sight of the big picture. good luck to elbit and to us, its shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Cash on Hand

    by bdinvest1 Aug 28, 2014 11:29 AM
    ofir_menkes ofir_menkes Sep 3, 2014 1:44 PM Flag

    whoever you are, if you studied law I hope you go and demand
    a refund of your tuition. half the truth is worse than a lie.
    I do not know if you actually think this way. I hope you do not,
    because I am actually scarred for you.

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