Sat, Aug 30, 2014, 6:09 AM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Adobe Systems Inc. Message Board

oilexplore1 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 14, 2014 11:42 AM Member since: May 17, 2008
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Reply to

    Pa. Utica Potential

    by chrxind Aug 13, 2014 11:11 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Aug 14, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Chrxind, Excellent observation. The Bigfoot 9H flowing at 14 million per day. will produce 5 B's in one year huge-and as good as the Marcellus. Analysts haven't figured it out yet-but RRC has 400000 Utica shale acres with better rock and pressure-none of which is included in reserves. RRC has the additional advantages from the wet gas and the economics of drilling in locations where they already have infrastructure saving almost 1m per well. They'll figure it out after the well is announced, take advantage of the opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Boring new release today

    by rubybell_99 Jul 28, 2014 9:08 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 30, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Thought the release was very informative. Analyst reaction to earnings not unexpected. They all think short term, look at the natural gas and liquids price weakness, and plug it into their models-just no long term analysis. Bunch of robots. Reality is that RRC has the best acreage in the best gas field in the world, and will be doubling production and cash flow every 3-4 years. They are a low cost producer and continue to drive costs down (which offsets nat gas price declines and will serve as a multiplier when prices rebound). They have the wells identified and takeaway capacity to triple their production and beyond and a marketing strategy to sell this production. Didn't see that in any analyst notes this morning or any mention of their long term planning securing a diverse pipeline transportation arrangement at very low cost or the future ethane and propane sales arrangements. No mention the value of their underlying acreage assets which may be worth four times the current share price or that their stacked pay shale formations will provide huge cost savings going forward (saving almost 900K per well with infrastructure savings) . If companies are paying $20K for Utica acreage in Ohio-what would you pay for triple stacked pay acreage in PA with better rock and gas in place. No mention how the company achieved record production despite the Mark West plant being down for five weeks or any mention of their ability to focus on their dry or wet gas acreage as circumstances warrant. Didn't read anything in the analyst comments today about the potential impact of the Utica well where they have 400,000 Utica acres. Doesn't hurt to read what these guys are saying, but do your own diligence and look beyond the next quarter or two-many of them have agendas. In any event-seems that the RRC board has dried up-I'll keep a watch on it, for me really makes no sense to post anything in the future for discussion with no one here.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 23, 2014 2:44 PM Flag

    Hey Yogue, Saw some recent analyst notes on RRC-Breen Cap just upped target price to 114, Canacord at 107, Cantor Fitz at 98, Deutch Bank at 100 and Morningstar just gave it a 4 Star rating and increased fair value by $10 to $89. I agree natural gas prices and liquids prices having their effect here. Still RRC selling at too big a discount to its asset value along with all the other attributes we often discuss here. Been buying a some shares at these levels.I think we have to look forward longer term to the natural gas exports, utility switching and increasing demand.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 22, 2014 10:26 AM Flag

    Looks like about a 20% correction off the RRC high, painful to watch. Haven't seen anything company specific to justify the decline. Appears to result from the decline natural gas prices and the storage numbers. but at some point the company needs to address this substantial loss in market cap as it declines again today. RRC appears to be doing very well on all metrics but when it drops 20% the company needs to get in front of it.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 17, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Yogue-RRC has now lost almost 20% of its market cap in a very short period, clearly a material event.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 17, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Yogue, I agree, looked at natural gas prices and the sector, clearly in oversupply mode now with gas prices down sharply. Nonetheless, did not expect RRC to drop this sharply with the anticipated Utica well, marketing announcements and their hedge positions, outstanding asset base, low cost production and the efficiencies they have from the stacked pay. I see it got a Buy rating and 107 target this morning from Cannacord. Actually, bought a some shares this morning. I think we may be getting close to some deals in the E&P sector with the low interest rates, recent correction in the sector and opportunity for the major players to get ahead of the natural gas exports-COG and RRC definitely have an outstanding asset base.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 16, 2014 11:08 AM Flag

    Yeah-good luck with your purchase. Used to be more activity on the RRC board, thought there might be some interest and insights here with the stock declining almost 16% percent in a very short time. If there was any material reason I expect the company would have commented-but a sharp drop in any event. I think there is a lot of value here for some of the reasons I cited, but in the end, the market makes that decision, and doesn't seem to like it now. RRC down for the year in a record market.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 15, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    Impressive Utica Shale results announced by CNX, bodes well for RRC which appears to have better acreage:

    In the Utica Shale, CONSOL's 3-well NBL19 pad in Noble County, OH, was completed using RCS/SSL with an average of 64 stages per well and had an average lateral length of 9,510 feet. The pad, which had a controlled drawdown in pressure, yielded 24-hour average rates over 23 MMcfe per day, which included condensate yields of 70 barrels per million cubic feet of gas and an estimated NGL yield of 55 barrels per million cubic feet of gas. CONSOL is optimizing production facilities, midstream liquids handling and managing the reservoir pressure, and the company believes that the pad has the potential to produce at much higher rates. Each of the three wells achieved peak flow rates of approximately 18 MMcf per day, which would equate to 33.4 MMcfe per day. In the Ohio Dry Gas area, CONSOL has started drilling the top-hole on one dry Utica and one Marcellus in Monroe County, OH and expects to drill the horizontal for each well early in the fourth quarter in 2014.

  • Reply to

    New position at 82.45 just now.

    by codykotex69 Jul 10, 2014 2:38 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 11, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    That's an excellent purchase, which is about a 50% discount to the current value of the company, just for its Pennsylvania assets alone. RRC has 1.9 million PA acres, all of which are in reality proved. So if you assume 20% of those acres will never be drilled, you have 1.5 million acres. If you conservatively value 10% of those acres at 152,000 at $22,000 (approximate amount of acreage drilled to date) and the remaining 1.4 million acres at $15,000 with 160 mil shares you get an approximate $148 per share value. In reality, those acres will be proved so the share price is $210, without calculating for the other company assets. Like I say, any major player interested in RRC would have to pay north of $150 today and only significantly more later. This is a simple calculation but gives you an idea of the company's real value. No one can predict the share price near term and of course analysts do a different model computation, but it seems that you made a smart purchase, and ultimately you will receive its true value per share, as they continue to develop these assets.

  • Reply to

    Washington County Utica Porosity logs

    by rubybell_99 Jun 6, 2014 3:41 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 9, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    The other day CHK announced the sale of 22,000 undeveloped acres in Green County to rice for 336 mil or about 15K per acre. RICE also announced their Bigfoo9H Utica well came in at 41 mmcf/d. Repeating myself, but RRC has 1.9 million Marcellus, Utica and Devonian share acres which are in more productive locations-just using the undeveloped acreage cost that RICE paid that equates to an approximate $190 per share value for RRC; using a more reasonable value of 22,000 for proved acreage the share price value jumps to $275-this is excluding other asset plays they have. Obviously, it will take time to develop their assets, but the value for RRC going forward is tremendous. Always said that I prefer RRC to remain a stand alone company, but if any major player is paying attention the price will only get higher. With RRC I think investors should just stay focused on the value of its underlying assets, and with their proven track record, the stock price will take care of itself.

  • Reply to

    Washington County Utica Porosity logs

    by rubybell_99 Jun 6, 2014 3:41 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jul 2, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    Ohio regulators reported today that Utica Shale drilling has doubled Ohio production in the past year. RRC contends they have the best Utica acreage and are drilling what will likely be a huge impact well in the Utica Point Pleasant with over 500,000 acres. Not sue why the stock has drifted down the past few weeks, but a good opportunity to buy some RRC before they announce the Utica results this year. If you go back and read some of the earnings transcripts you can see that RRC is very optimistic and confident about their Utica acreage. Something to think about...

  • Reply to

    Washington County Utica Porosity logs

    by rubybell_99 Jun 6, 2014 3:41 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jun 9, 2014 2:54 PM Flag

    Audrey McClendon new company American Energy said it plans to acquire 48,000 acres of Marcellus Shale leases in five counties in West Virginia and 27,000 acres of Utica Shale leases in Monroe County, Ohio, from East Resources Inc. and an unidentified private company for $1.75 billion. That equates to about $23,000 per acrce. RRC has 540,000 Utica Shale acres which are not included in reserves, likely better acreage than that purchased by McClendon, at the same price that equates to about $90 per shares just for the RRC Utica Pt Pleasant acreage-just something to think about when you value your RRC shares.

  • Reply to

    Analyst Day

    by ultach2000 May 28, 2014 9:49 PM
    oilexplore1 oilexplore1 Jun 5, 2014 11:24 AM Flag

    Was very impressed with the analyst presentation and CIE management, they clearly have a lot of expertise and have done much strategic planning inn finding reserves and planning for development. Excellent results in a relative short time and a tremendous accomplishment for the CEO starting this company from zero. The long term future for CIE should be exciting. Also felt optimistic that CIE will ultimately benefit from all of the natural gas reserves off Angola. No question a lot of challenges but great opportunity here- seems they are on top of it.

ADBE
71.90+0.53(+0.74%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.