Chrxind-have you considered purchasing some long term RRC calls, say Jan 2017 you can probably get the 55 calls for around $8. May be a good way to add back some of your RRC shares if you think it will be worth more than $63 two years from now. I certainly believe that to be the case.
Interesting article in WSJ about inability of XOM and others to find international shale assets, I would suggest they look at RRC and COG where the reserves you reference are there.
They did note the potential regulatory issues. On the positive side 60% gas hedged at $4 and 75% of oil hedged at $90.57, also ethanes will result in uplift in 2nd half due to pricing outside Mt. Belvieu, so $3.19 gas would equate to $4. Also some interesting updates out today on the Utica-RRC claims there Utica acreage has 20-40% more gas than surrounding area. Appears they have the Utica core acreage. At least we're getting some positive analyst coverage with CS, Imperial and Morningstar.
Morningstar just gave RRC a 5 star buy rating saying the Marcelus is the premier play and RRC is best positioned there. They did lower their fair value estimate to 77 due to the low prices.
Numbers do confirm too much supply, prices declining despite some decent usage. Been a RRC owner a long time, great company, but now less optimistic that prices will rebound to $5 even with future demand for power generation, exports to Mexico, LNG-etc. that would generate the share prices in the SA article. Most producers cannot survive at these prices -had thought some would be bought out when they become distressed. But unless your a low cost producer with core positions not sure they would be a good investment for these hedge funds or Blackstone types. RRC and COG are low cost producers with core positions, perhaps AR as well, that will survive and ultimately thrive- down now more than 50% and prices still declining. If I was a major player looking to expand in this low price era, I wouldn't chase the marginal E&P's I would acquire the best, RRC, COG or maybe AR the gas producers with the best core acreage and competitive advantage-RRC being the best-1 million Marcellus acres with decades of drilling inventory. Maybe time for RRC to see whose interested.
Yogue, Thx-interesting article. We've said here many times the Marcellus acreage is worth multiples of the share price. Some of his charts would make a nice addition to the RRC presentation.
Howl long are the big holders like T Rowe going to stay with them if they can't get the share price up- that's the bottom line. There's a great story here, but a few presentations to the same analysts, makes little difference. If they can't create shareholder value then market the company.
When you think this thing has hit rock bottom, it continues to get hammered. Performance no longer matters until price decks stop coming down. Company worth a lot more than share price. You'd think RRC execs who have seen their net worth evaporate would get more animated in getting the value of this company out there.
I'm not as negative on nat gas. We should get a supply response from the declining shale oil production since a significant amount of gas is associated with its production, the shale oil wells decline rapidly and there are large capex cuts there. Also we will see demand increase from the LNG, exports to Mexico, plant conversions and pipeline expansion out of Appalachia. Agree Dem Gov's are always problematic (also have one in VA)-just look at upstate NY. Good news is that the core areas are now locked up and it looks like the RRC Utica could match Cabot dry gas metrics-nothing in the stock price for it.
Definitely not, RRC has plenty of liquidity, debt covered 7x and RRC bonds actually sell at a premium. RRC is determined to be investment grade which will happen in the near future. If we get a bump in gas prices RRC could be cash flow positive this year with the revised capex budget.
Cody, RRC just announced an outstanding year and the market has taken it down about $5 since. Longer term you'll make a lot of $ with that purchase. Why the selloff- because commodity prices are down so analysts punch lower estimates in their models (which is the extent of their analysis). Although the Imperial Capital guy thought about it, must have factored in NAV and came out with a reasonable value. With declining prices RRC increased the borrowing base, decreased unit costs, lowered debt, grew production and reserves 25%, and will still grow 20% with half the capex. That's what they should be looking at, then factoring in future higher demand and prices. Estimate what 1.6 million stacked pay acres are worth when you have the best rock (I bet it's north of $250 per share). The real value of RRC is multiples of the current stock price. Reason is simple-its the asset quality-the best rock, quality employees and mgt. Most analysts are incapable of thinking more than a quarter out. Ignore the talking heads on CNBC- just know is that natural gas demand will increase substantially and the companies with the best rock, and capital efficiency will be big winners. RRC is on track to become investment grade and cash flow positive. Just keep adding to your position.
Value, I saw the other day that Morningstar reiterated a $97 fair value estimate for RRC. I didn't see the Imperial report, but I assume it's about a 15 multiple of the forward enterprise value, EV/EBITDA, which is a rationale way to value the company and a good method for capturing debt and net cash. Unfortunately, the market must use other models.
Here's a good report out today:
In a report published Friday, Imperial Capital analyst Bob Christensen reiterated an Outperform rating on Range Resources Corp. and raised the price target from $86.00 to $91.00.
In the report, Imperial Capital noted, "We are maintaining our Outperform rating on RRC shares, and raising our one-year price target to $91 from $86. Our price target is about 79% above the recent share price. We remain positive on RRC even in a low 2015 commodity price environment of sub-$55/bbl oil (WTI) and sub- $3.00/Mcf natural gas (NYMEX)."
I suspect he was referring to the potential for natural gas demand when LNG exports start later this year, also should see a lot of coal plant retirements and exports to Mexico coupled with the declining rig count and the number of well completions being deferred. Clearly, the commodity price is challenging now, but the market should begin to turn ahead of any increase in commodity pricing. Just need to get less dependent on Appalchia pricing. Agree with you $2.70 gas is terrible with the cold weather coming to an end. Still a lot of positives for RRC-the Nora filed is really interesting where they get a premium to Nymex and may have other potential, the ethane and propane sales have good contract rates and 60% of natural gas hedged at $4, and factor in effective hedges from the benefit declining service costs their ability to drill wells $850K cheaper. all in all estimates of a 37% reduction in well cost per lateral foot. So the commodity pricing is challenging, but few companies are as prepared as RRC to deal with it.
Yogue, RRC had a great year in all aspects, just too bad the commodity prices are not cooperating. RRC is situated, perhaps, better than any other E&P, to deal with the low prices. It's a game with the analysts, they will now reduce the price target due to the low prices, rather than focus on the asset value and the future demand. Find another company that can cut capex in half, still grow 20%,and remain on the brink of investment grade. One analyst, from Sun Humphrey downgraded RRC yesterday before the earnings were even released-how does that happen. The asset value of RRC has only increased when they grow with such minimal capex, but until the commodity prices rebound we'll probably be locked in a price range (unless some smart company writes a big check).
Yogue, I don't know any other E&P that can cut capex 47%, still grow production 20%, and virtually stay within cash flow. Demonstrates the quality of the assets (and employees) of RRC. Eventually, some of these analyst's will figure it out.
Agreed, thought the call was very positive. Now the FCPA is behind them seems they are actively marketing the Angola assets for a JV or perhaps more. Also reworking plans on Cameia will apparently save billions in the future, and they will benefit from reduced service costs (although I don't think those prices will be down as long as many think). Investors should now start to focus on the value of the assets they have accumulated. I suspect you added shares at the bottom.
All good points, but after listening to the conference call I don't see anything that will change HUN in the near term or perhaps through 2015. Seems they will have to rely on cost cutting and some low feed stock pricing to achieve goals, which are more than offset by other issues TIo2 pricing, competition from Germany and China on polys, the dollar and European weakness. I've been a shareholder for a long time, usually don't comment here about HUN, but this is the least optimistic I've been about this company in a long time. I expect we start to see a lot of downgrades as there really is no catalyst to turn this near time. I think its well managed and a turn around situation in the longer term, but the share price will remain in the low 20"s for awhile.
Concerning Q4 Loss-clearly a negative quarter with near term prospects weak. Big loss ($ 7 million ) from the Euro currency, the Euro is causing weak pricing for TI02, plant closing for renovation will cost $60 million, positives seem to be from reduced benzene costs and cost cutting and epoxy business doing well with airline mfg but nor really enough for significant overall growth. They seem to think they can get a TI02 price increase, hopefully it works. Well managed company, overall 2014 was pretty good, but until TI02 changes shares will be negative to flat at best, hopefully, this will change by mid year. Company doing as well as can be done in tough environment.