IF you believe the Swift reserves calculations are reasonably accurate, then the entire company is valued @ $7.31 BOEG ($1.6 billion EV / 219 million BOEG). Now that's dirt cheap!! However, some of these smaller oil companies play fast and loose with reserves estimates. The real negatives are the huge debt load and a very low cash position.
That said, I think this stock is poised to rally on any good news and short covering could really add to buying pressure. This is one of those stocks where I don't understand why the shorts continue to add to positions when the risk/reward dynamic appears to be much more favorable for longs.
Along with a stock position bought as low as $9.08 on the recent selloff, I'm long 100 SFY $10 Aug-14 calls, average price @ $1.05. Anybody on this board find any significant negatives I may have missed? Thanks.
Yes, folks. The shameless pumper cockroaches have come out of the woodwork!! These clueless vermin will lose their capital just like any remaining foolish longs who haven't learned their lesson with this POS!! :)
Don't be fooled by the so-called "insider buying". The insiders bought the IPO @ $9, then bought @ $5.50 in January and now they're buying @ $1.25. Why you ask? It's quite elementary -- THEY HAVE TO!! They must PROP UP THE STOCK due to a total lack of buying interest with never ending operating losses.
From $10.30 to $1.20!! This company is toast, folks!! Trade this crash-and-burn turkey at your own risk!! Don't be a sucker bagholder!! This is the last warning you'll get from me. Good luck, foolish patsies!!
After tanking on low volume in the regular session, PXLW is up big time in AH trading with no news -- multiple trades @ $7.75+. Does somebody know something??
PXLW blurb and chart is in Barron's "Charting the Market" today. This is surprising since Barron's doesn't usually include microcaps in this section. The stock could get another pop on Monday from this exposure since many investors check out the Market Week section for trading ideas. From Barron's...
"A Seeking Alpha posting by a stockholder claimed the graphics-chip maker is working with Apple on the planned Apple TV product. There was no confirmation."
Yikes!! These clueless moronic vermin really believe that LIQD actually has a future??!! Just watch your foolish capital melt away, newbie bagholders!!
davida: High short interest is NOT a significant negative for SFY. Increasing short interest when a stock is tanking is negative but once a stock bottoms and starts trending higher, that high short interest becomes your friend. All those shares have to be bought back which increases buying pressure. In fact, the high short interest is one of the factors that attracted me to SFY. Now the stars appeared to be lined up for a possible short squeeze, unless this management team blows it again. IMO
1) Field values are NOT based on production volumes. Period!! Like most everything in life, the value of a field is what somebody is willing to pay for it. Today, that's primarily based on reserves and also incorporates other factors like the capital required to develop the field and get the hydrocarbons to market.
2) Fasken developed reserves are 10.3 MMBOE or 33% of the entire Eagle Ford developed reserves of 31.5 MMBOE.
3) Fasken developed reserves of 10.3 MMBOE are only 12% of the total "proved" reserves of 87.6 MMBOE.
4) Since only 12% of the Fasken proved reserves are currently developed, that means a LOT of additional capital is required to get the hydrocarbons into production.
5) Among other factors, the partner estimates the amount of capital needed to fully develop the undeveloped proved reserves to determine what they are willing to pay for the JV interest.
6) Bottom line, with the limited breakdown of the reported numbers, it's nearly impossible for an outsider to calculate the true market value of the Fasken reserves.
Face it, a lot of you amateur arm chair quarterbacks can't grasp the nuances of field values, even the difference between developed and undeveloped proved reserves.
The lead time for device components is such that it's almost certain that PXLW is NOT in the iPhone 6. If Iris was going in iPhone 6, the production ramp up would have started in Q2 and added significant revenues in the quarter. Since Iris revenues were forecasted to grow in Q3, we can safely assume that it's not in the iPhone 6. Those who believe otherwise just don't understand the timeline in producing widgets.
So why has PXLW rallied 50% from the lows? Primarily based on Mark Gomes pumping the stock and secondarily on recent future revenue guidance. In addition, nearly all semiconductor stocks are currently at or near multi-year highs. However, can we safely assume that Iris will be accepted in the marketplace and add significant revenues down the road? I think the jury is still out. The stock is still floundering on low volume, even in a frothy market recording new highs. Obviously, investors have reservations about the PXLW turnaround story. We need the stock to break through $8 with conviction on high volume to validate the story. IMO
So, why did the market yawn in AH trading and not pop the stock on the earnings? Here are a few thoughts and observations...
1) Earnings just never matter with GLUU, only guidance which was extremely weak (Q2 revenues in low $30 millions and FULL YEAR non-GAAP earnings of only 2 to 3 cents).
2) DH14 is in decline and there are no big hits in the few new game releases.
3) FirstPlay purchase -- Investors don't want GLUU to buy anybody, especially for dilutive stock. Longs simply prefer to see somebody else buy GLUU!!
Bottom line, the guidance killed enthusiasm over the "beat" on earnings. I'm still holding 15,000 shares recently purchased @ $4.00 and $4.01, but this stock is likely to wallow around until some new hit game release. Face it, that's the nature of the beast, folks. IMO
Still holding my SFY stock position but glad I sold half of my $10 Aug-14 calls yesterday. The stock seems undervalued but the shorts seem to know better. Is this company ever going to get it right??!!
All the pumper naïve bluster and hype won't get this crash-and-burn turkey back over $4 any time soon. Face facts, the ONLY reason GLUU rallied all the way to $5.65 was the huge success of DH14 -- in other words GLUU is simply a "one hit wonder". Here's why GLUU is going nowhere in the near term...
1) With DH14 fading, GLUU has a mediocre slate of games that don't inspire anybody.
2) Clueless management -- they sell more stock when they don't need the cash.
3) Clueless management -- they sold stock @ $3.50 when the stock was trading north of $4.00. Savvy management would have taken advantage of the rally and sold stock north of $5.
4) Clueless management -- they plan to buy other companies rather than sell the company.
5) Clueless management -- they are empire builders rather than creators of shareholder value.
6) Greedy management -- most executives, including de Masi, sell nearly every option share they get their grubby hands on.
Notice the common thread? Incompetent management!! I'm sorry I ever got back into this POS @ $4.00 and will bail out again on any strength. Good luck, bagholders!!
Most of the volume was in early March, the result of Gomes and Becker Drapkin. After years of poor performance, Roth Capital is the only firm left following PXLW. It was a good cc but it's too bad Walicek can't divulge more info on the "deal" as the stock could really pop on some more definitive news.
Earlier, the NASDAQ website showed a stream of individual trades for a total 22k shares but then later it changed to "no AH trading". Must be a glitch because there was indeed actual trading going on. Other websites show 22.1k shares traded, closing the session @ $7.7899.
BTW -- For what it's worth, Schwab last showed PXLW at bid $7.55, ask $8.23
If anyone here believes that you had 40,000 shares of SFY, I've got some oceanfront property in the Fasken field for 'em!! LOL
Those who follow Mark Gomes know that he placed PXLW in the PTT speculative portfolio last June ("Shares Of Pixelworks Could Be Poised To Triple" June 3 article in SA). At that time, contributor "Panoplos" refuted much of Gomes "story" on PXLW in a serious but somewhat testy exchange in the comments section. Those who missed that article and comments should revisit for some insight.
Why is this important today? Panoplos appears to be an industry insider with intimate knowledge of PXLW's products and history. He had serious doubts about PXLW's ability to sell their solutions in volume at a cost advantage AND backed up his position with more hands-on insight than Gomes. Of course, since then PXLW stock has doubled, largely on the back of Gomes and the AAPL hype. However, the company has not yet shown that they can sell Iris in volumes to significantly grow revenues.
Bottom line, Q2 earnings and guidance will go a long way toward knowing if Iris will be a game winner or just more pie-in-the-sky hype. If you currently blindly believe the PXLW bullish story, go back to that Gomes article and comments for a more rational and objective discussion.
Disclosure: I'm cautiously long PXLW on my second round trip but with one foot out the door. :)
Those who are trying to educate the totally clueless pumping MORONS are wasting their time!! Let these snot-nosed trash-talking slimeballs lose their lunch money and learn through the "school of hard knocks"!! BUWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
jdberwanger: More accurately, I should have said "lose-lose-win" (meaning a possible "win" with a decent JV for the Fasken acreage or outright sale of the LA properties). The fact is the longer the negotiations drag out the less likely a deal favorable to Swift will materialize. Generally, it's fairly easy to buy/sell properties in the "oil patch" -- unless one side is vastly overvaluing the reserves and/or production rates. It's very possible the properties don't fit any other company's strategic plan unless they can be bought on the cheap.
Disclosure: I retired from a major oil company and am quite familiar with property valuations and reserves calculations. I was much more bullish on SFY prior to this earnings call but will continue to hold until news of any deal. So, yes, I'm cautiously long but not liking what I see unfolding.
The GLUU takeover speculation is very OLD news. It's useful to review the CNBC interview with CEO de Masi back on May 30, 2012...
1) GLUU closed @ $4.56 on May 30, 2012 (23% higher than Friday's close!!)
2) de Masi has stated more than once that it will take the IPO price ($11.50) or more to buy GLUU.
3) The executives are getting wealthy by selling nearly all option stock. They won't kill the "golden goose".
4) GLUU needs more hit games like DH14 to significantly grow revenues.
5) The stock is dead money until they can produce revenue growth and predictable earnings.
6) There will be NO buyout of GLUU any time soon.
Sadly, those are the FACTS for longs, folks. Get real and embrace reality!!