A Recent Disconnect:
On March 24, 2014 only a few days prior to the announcement of the Idera P2 trial, Celgene (CELG) announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved OTEZLA® (apremilast), the Company's oral, selective inhibitor of phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4), for the treatment of adult patients with active "psoriatic arthritis." While I do believe that the approval of this "pill" is great news for Celgene, this is not and was not the intended goal that Idera was striving for in its IMO-8400 trial. According to my research, Idera has never intended to go into this already crowded space (but has stated in its webcasts and news releases that they could partner this out).
Given these recent announcements, I do believe that investors sold on this news, which is an unwarranted response, hence the disconnect. Maybe investors aren't looking deep enough into the real translation of the data to see that we are actually are on the cusp of something very remarkable. The positive Top-Line data seems to be clearly overlooked, misunderstood and misrepresented by the individual investor. In simple terms, the current stock price is not representative of its real value. We are only seeing a piece of the iceberg floating above the water. I could be wrong, but I don't believe that I am and I will be anxiously waiting for more data from the "higher dose" cohorts to be announced later in Q2 of 2014 which could be a pivotal event.
This question that I pose is exactly why I believe that Idera Pharmaceuticals has amassed what I would call the elite team of biotech leaders and investment bankers over the past several quarters. What I am referring to is Idera's highly gifted management team, it's board, leadership, and two main investment firms; Pillar Invest Corp. and Baker Brothers Advisors.
Idera Pharmaceuticals - A Buying Opportunity Following The Fade by EXPstocktrader
April 16, 2014
If you have been following Idera Pharmaceuticals (IDRA), you know that they have been ramping up as one of the most cutting edge companies in the field of discovery and development of its TLR Antagonists, as well as synthetic DNA- and RNA- based drug candidates which I believe could radically change gene therapies in medicine today.
Abstract #2570 As Presented at AACR in San Diego, CA on April 7, 2014
In my review, the preclinical data is quite impressive and almost certainly provides a strong rationale for the phased studies being performed by Idera in ABC-DLBCL and Waldenstrom Macroglobulinemia. We are of course in the early stages, but what is most exciting about this poster is the proof of concept in its TLR Antagonists that are being used in its... In vitro Studies in MYD88 L265P - Positive ABC-DLBCL Cell Lines.
It is at the same price as 12/13, however, the following positive data points have been released since:
Julian Baker and Kevin Neu of BB join the board.
Coverage issued by Cowen and set price target of 7.
Had 40 million stock offering to have sufficient funds to run business for 2 more years.
Lou Brenner named Chief Medical Officer from Radius Health
Mark Goldberg joins board with experience from Synageva and Genzyme
Idera also intends to initiate clinical development of IMO-8400 in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) harboring the MYD88 L265P mutation. The Company has recently submitted a protocol for a Phase 1/2 trial in this indication.
In December 2013, Idera was cleared to open enrollment in its Phase 1/2 trial of IMO-8400 in patients with Waldenström’s macroglobulinemia, a form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The trial is designed to evaluate IMO-8400’s safety, tolerability and potential clinical activity in patients who have a history of relapse or failure to respond to one or more prior therapies. The Company anticipates that patient treatment in this trial will begin in the first half of 2014.
Idera announced today its plans to initiate clinical development of its lead compound, IMO-8400, for the treatment of patients with polymyositis and dermatomyositis in the first half of 2014.
Idera Pharmaceuticals announced positive top-line data from its randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled Phase 2 trial of IMO-8400 in 32 patients with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.
Also, I would expect that some shorts are hedging with Calls, perhaps that will drive a further rally into options expiration.
Wedbush downgraded Deckers Outdoor (NASDAQ: DECK) from Outperform to Neutral with a $45 price target citing valuation ahead of Q4 results on 2/28.
Analyst Corinna Freedman views valuation as a less favorable risk/reward scenario heading into the 4Q print. Shares are trading within 1% of their target valuation and they are stepping to the sidelines given uncertainty surrounding guidance.
The analyst is comfortable with their conservative $2.60 estimate, which is $0.02 below consensus, although finds it "difficult to discern the market’s expectations for 2013 guidance, which we believe is likely to have a more significant impact on the shares and, given mix shifts towards lower priced transitional styles, is more difficult to estimate."
If their new initiatives in slippers, men's line, new stores, new accounting system, huge buyback payoffs than marketing and PR should just fall into line.
IMO, they have done some smart things during the past challenging year and believe those initiatives will payoff over the next 18 months.
Considering DECK has moved 50% off the bottom a few months ago and there are still that many shorts, that is probably good.
Also, considering their guidance for the 4th quarter was extremely conservative deck should be on good shape for earnings in a week.
It will be interesting to see how many shares Deck mgmt has bought back this past quarter. Over time those buybacks will be a very smart investment for all shareholders. 300M is a significant number of shares.
Excellent point, Indian! It will be interesting to see how many shares Deckers bought back during there next quarterly report.
It was a great opportunity for smart longs to buy deck on the cheap! Hopefully, plenty did and still can!
With the company buyback and the increase in shorts it is going to get very interesting. The company can buyback on the order of 5 million shares ($200M) and another 2.2M short in the past two weeks.
In February 2012, the Company approved a new stock repurchase program to repurchase up to $100,000 of the Company's common stock in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions, subject to market conditions, applicable legal requirements, and other factors. The program did not obligate the Company to acquire any particular amount of common stock and the program could be suspended at any time at the Company's discretion. During the three months ended June 30, 2012, the Company repurchased approximately 1,475,000 shares under this program, for approximately $80,000, or an average price of $54.26. During the six months ended June 30, 2012, the Company repurchased approximately 1,749,000 shares under this program, for approximately $100,000, or an average price of $57.19. As of June 30, 2012, the Company had repurchased the full amount authorized under this program. The purchases were funded from available working capital.