They might yet say so. Perhaps in early April after a positive adcom vote. Al would probably enjoy the resulting carnage !
Yes, if he can find enough suckers to fund one more try without Al coming up with any more cash. Dilution is the solution!
The big money payers are insurance companies,HMO's, and pharmacy benefits managers, and as such are probably indifferent to what insulin they are paying so long as pricing and quality are roughly equal.
As a user of NovoLog , I found my use varies considerably dependent on the type and size of meal and the amount of I've had or am going to have. If I count carb's and am reasonably cautious about holding carb's down I get by on about 1 and 1/2 pens per month. If I don't count and reduce my exercise (winter) , it takes 3 to 3 1/2 pens per month.
Two thoughts on Insulin pens : (1) there is a nearly infinitely adjustable dosage amount.
(2) with a fresh needle, injections are basically painless.
One thought on Afrezza (1) the idea of an inhaled medication will be much easier for first time
users to accept, but at some cost in dosage flexibility.
PFG , there is no problem with your math. The problem is with the unknown! The REAL PAYERS for probably better than 85% of insulin pen users are the large institutions ( Humana , aetna, medicare part D, excreta) and they are not paying those kind of prices . I would suspect a hair cut of between 30 and 50 percent if not more. The real price of insulin pens is hidden and it is almost certainly not any where the pricing in your example.
I would work in front of the PDUFA date. The April 11's probably. Should this be rejected yet again. you might well own some fine $1.25 MNKD stock.
By all means buy away! Far be it from me to suggest a little safety in biotech might be a good thing.
You should probably mortgage that trailer and buy another 12 shares.... on margin.
sell April 4th puts. If your real cautious sell the $4.00's and depending on your optimism go up from there.
You will still have a little wiggle room between the 4th and the fifteenth should you need it, and a modest margin of safety..
Sir you really need to buy a good short term municipal bond. It does not appear your cut out for biotech.
Do you know what an index fund is ? Vanguard has little to no interest in MNKD's fate or prospects. Their share holdings will rise or fall on based on the index's formula for MNKD's percentage of inclusion. No recommendation, just math.
with about 400 million shares to be outstanding, the next split might well be a one for two reverse split and should their be a third CRL it would likely be a one for fifteen.