You will not get a "Date" from anyone but I'll give you 3 scenarios that will cause Tvix to spike over $10.
1. When the Fed comes out and says "rates are going higher" you could see a Tvix jump to $10. Now the Fed is going not to raise rates until August or later and we all know when it happens it will be a tiny rate hike but what ever language they use Tvix will jump.
2. Russia takes over all of Ukraine and sends troops close to Poland, Baltic States, Belarus, borders. When that happens is anyone guess since Russian economy is losing money faster then it can gain acreage in Ukraine. Putin seems to want to take over Ukraine slowly and on the side 'freeze" half the population by cutting off gas supplies.
3. Israel gets tired of Obama and Kerry playing games with Iran and takes matters into their own hands. As in attempts to take out Iran's nukes. Now Iran might not wait for that to happen and attack Israel first but either scenario will easily spike Tvix over $10 a share.
Greece, Isis, strong dollar, U.S. budgets, U.S. debt, etc. don't seem to matter anymore. Its either war on a mass scale or Fed green light for Fed rate hike that will spike volatility. And who know when that will happen since Yellen seems to be more dovish every time she speaks or comes before congress. Just my 2 cents.
All of a Sudden Gold on Fire - and starting a long term trend higher as Yellen tells Congress - No Rate Hike Coming
If Yellen even hints of a rate hike in June - market tanks today. So your post says fed considers rate hike around May with all points pointing to a June rate hike. That's just 3 months away and market won't know how to deal with that. Boom - down she goes.
If you read the tea leaves today nothing has changed in Europe vs Greece other then a bogus bail out extension for 4 months and a home work assignment for Greek Prime Minister to provide a list on Monday showing where he plans to cut costs over the next 4 months. In 4 months will Greece see all its problems go away - Nope. Will new Prime Minister turn into a hard line Republican cutting everything in sight - Nope. Will Greek Finance Minister start wearing suites and act like "bean counter" - Nope.
So nothing really changed today except Europe kicking the can down the road - which it turn set the market on fire and very possibly sending little Tvix below $2 a share next week. This market is crazy and probably will scream higher in four month when Greece and Putin fall in love and tell the Euro good bye.
Germany got what they wanted and now they are sitting pretty should Greece balk over the next four months. What's really weird is the new Greek Prime Minister won on a belief that he would eliminate austerity measures but from what I can tell Germany said "no free lunch for Greeks" and told PM and Financial Minister sign agreement with "no sweets" or leave the Euro.
if I read that property on net. Now question is does Greece sign agreement and as we know 4 months goes by in a fly as Europe Kicks Can Down the Road.
And I assume if Greece does not sign on Monday they are out of Euro. Wonder how Greek's will view this four month deal and how they react to party leaders (if they sign or don't)?
Greeks don't want to sign anything today. Want to stall but EU president, Donald Tusk, has rejected a Greek request for a further eurozone summit to be scheduled on Sunday, if no deal is concluded today.
Now guess who going to reject a draft proposal today. Not Germany - It will be Greece.
Germany’s rejection of Greece’s wilted olive branch on Thursday will mean that the Grexit—Greece’s exit from the Eurozone—is now inevitable. You can Book It Dano.
Should be interesting to see how far the market tanks today. Greece was just throw a lead brick while it gasp for air in the Aegean Sea.
Question now is - is Greece new Prime Minister calling Putin and asking for Ruble bailout or Russian Tanks??
Greece now going the way of "Rise of the 300" movie. In the toilet. Look for official Greece default end of month.
Greek Default now coming. Germany holds the card and Greece holds Euro Exit Papers. Market dives today and tomorrow.
Going forward little Greece will pull down world markets since we now have a Mexican stand off where neither side will give. Its going to spike Volatility higher since every one knows the Greeks have no intention of paying back a dime and the German's want to keep there Euro's safe from a European Financial collapse. Down we go/
and that distant sound you hear is the Greek Tsunami building strength to wipe out Europe and U.S. stock markets tomorrow. Volatility is now back in spades and growing bigger every day, In plain English - Its Correction Time.
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month. The Greek state and its banks would then face a looming cash crunch and massive banks runs.
Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chaired the meeting, said Athens had until Friday to request an extension, otherwise the bailout would expire at the end of the month. The Greek state and its banks would then face a looming cash crunch. Then pending default or exit from Euro.
February 27 - officially ends funding for Homeland Security - So who will protect the White House & the Fed?
March, 1 2015 - Greece offically default on massive dept and leaves the Euro (Spain up to bat next)
April 1, 2015 - Russia takes over 1/3 of Ukraine as Europe Shudders. Oh where is Obama???
June 1st 2015 - Yellen raises interest rates .50 and world markets have a heart attack.
Sure I missed some other important financial dates but the ones up above are the one you need to mark down. Because each one will knock Spy down 10% - 15%, if not more.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester Sees June Rate Increase as ‘Likely Option’ And joining her are a chorus of central-bank officials who want to take a tentative step toward raising short-term interest rates at midyear. Now doesn't that make you feel better about buying Tvix and Uvxy tomorrow and holding into a triple gain over the next month or two.
Oh once or twice over the last few years. Seems it now happens again tomorrow. I can deal with it but not sure Spy long can.