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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

oldschoolbuilder 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 28, 2014 11:16 AM Member since: Apr 19, 2006
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  • oldschoolbuilder by oldschoolbuilder Mar 28, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Ready to roar!

    Community count is expected to go from 32 at Dec 31, 2013 to 58 (up 81%) by mid-year 2015. The mix and geography of homes sold is also shifting to higher priced/higher margin deliveries. The recent deal for 540 lots in coastal California will be a home run...$500 mil incremental revenue at an assumed 12% after-tax margins adds $2 per share in earnings. Stock is at less than 5X 2016 EPS, with high visibility into deliveries as the land and communities are already spoken for through 2016. 10X 2016 EPS = $55-60 WLH stock (maybe 1-2 yrs out). John Paulsen and Tom Brown are big shareholders and management owns 20%. Great land positions in California, Arizona, and Vegas. Balance sheet is ok with no maturities until 2019 and reasonably conservative net debt/cap. Looks good to me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oldschoolbuilder by oldschoolbuilder Mar 28, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Community count is expected to go from 32 at Dec 31, 2013 to 58 (up 81%) by mid-year 2015. The mix and geography of homes sold is also shifting to higher priced/higher margin deliveries. The recent deal for 540 lots in coastal California will be a home run...$500 mil incremental revenue at an assumed 12% after-tax margins adds $2 per share in earnings. Stock is at less than 5X 2016 EPS, with high visibility into deliveries as the land and communities are already spoken for through 2016. 10X 2016 EPS = $55-60 WLH stock (maybe 1-2 yrs out). John Paulsen and Tom Brown are big shareholders and management owns 20%. Great land positions in California, Arizona, and Vegas. Balance sheet is ok with no maturities until 2019 and reasonably conservative net debt/cap. Looks good to me.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

AGNC
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