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The GEO Group, Inc. Message Board

oltarheel 824 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 12, 2006 2:52 PM Member since: Feb 17, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Need crash call on covered calls, please....

    by apayne1998 Sep 11, 2006 11:33 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Sep 12, 2006 2:52 PM Flag

    just looked at the options. the oct 12.50 call is bid at 75 cents. that's pretty good insurance for someone looking to buy PDC today.

  • Reply to

    Need crash call on covered calls, please....

    by apayne1998 Sep 11, 2006 11:33 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Sep 12, 2006 2:36 PM Flag

    normally, you would sell the covered calls when the stock is flying high. 1 contract = 100 shares (normally). as an example, if the stock is trading at 12.50, and you sell a dec 12.50 call for 50 cents, then you have to hold your stock until the third friday in december (or buy back the call that you sold). come dec, if the stock is > 12.50, you will lose your stock (a sell at 12.50). if the stock is less than 12.50, then you made 50 cents by selling the call, but your stock-holding went down. this doesn't appear to be a good time to buy the stock and sell a covered call. if you were to buy the stock at 12.50, and if it were to rebound to 14+, then you would be correct in considering selling a short-term covered call (at the 15 strike-price). just my humble opinion. good luck trading. Sam, long 800 shares.

  • Reply to

    Question for Advanced posters only..

    by matthewvaughn30 Sep 11, 2006 4:31 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Sep 11, 2006 4:51 PM Flag

    look at earnings per share and year-over-year earnings per share growth. if you were a fund-manager that had been burned over the last year, would you buy more now? even if the stock price crossed $30, you would probably not be enticed. it would take several quarters of big-time growth to justify higher prices. disclosure: 0 shares at this time, expecting a retrace to the low 20's. good luck trading, Sam

  • Reply to

    somebody loan this company a mouse

    by oltarheel Aug 30, 2004 5:02 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Aug 30, 2004 5:05 PM Flag


    that cost is 2.26 (not 1.26)

    but hey ..

  • remember when NERX cured a mouse, and its stock went from 2 to 70 ?

    holding 1325 shares of AVII at cost of 1.26 - (homerun doesn't even begin to describe what could happen here).


  • to me, this company is a 9 to 12 month story. sure, you could make a case that the company will go bankrupt, or have to raise cash and end up on some pink list. but you know, you could also make the case that if the company were to succeed (and success is raising revenue by 20 percent), then the stock-price could triple from today's prices. in my mind, it's at least a fifty-fifty chance. and i'll take those odds. this is exactly the type of investment that i look for (either lose half or triple with a relatively short timeframe). with companies like DFIB, there are more triples than losses.

  • ok, at 11.95 a share, it was time to place your bets. at that time, i posted that 5 percent moves (up and down) were both good bets. well, the 5% loss (11.35) hit last week, and the 5% gain (12.55) will probably hit this week. holding patiently....

  • oltarheel by oltarheel Jan 16, 2004 10:11 AM Flag

    here's the numbers if you buy at 11.95. a 5 percent gain is 12.55 and a 5 percent loss is 11.35. there's a good chance that either could occur within a week. a good bet for both shorts and longs.


  • if you can pick the bottom, you can make some decent returns in a short timeframe. what's the bottom? barring another downgrade, we may be looking at the bottom now. there's very little risk in buying anywhere below 14 (imho). good luck to all longs.

  • oltarheel by oltarheel Jan 14, 2004 4:03 PM Flag

    if the stock were > 20, then yes it should have been downgraded. looks like the old truism is still true: the market over reacts on both bottoms and tops. there's some blocks of 25K or more shares trading. somebody bought, and they'll probably make a decent profit.

  • oltarheel by oltarheel Apr 23, 2003 11:33 AM Flag

    don't ride rfmd down to 3 bucks. take your 5 bucks and put it on a horse that's already stumbled from 5 to 3 - and ride it for a double. need help finding a horse? i know several. here's one in medical supplies - bdal. and there's a kicker in this company - they make chemical and bacterial detection devices. never know when the kicker will kick in - hopefully never. oltarheel

  • Reply to

    Quiet times

    by rsh2jdg Apr 17, 2003 6:37 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Apr 23, 2003 11:16 AM Flag

    some nice buys late yesterday and this morning. if the markets don't tank, think we've said "goodbye" to 3 bucks - forever?

  • Reply to


    by ctjunk1998 Apr 9, 2003 6:10 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Apr 15, 2003 10:08 AM Flag

    you may be better off if you take 100 percent in shares (and refuse the 25% in cash). if you like your investment in bdux, you have to like your new investment in bdal. the odds are in your favor of someday "easing out" of bdal with much more than the penny and half premium that you computed on "correction day". of course, if you don't like bdal, be sure to take the 25% cash - at least that part of the deal is locked in at the 27 percent premium. good luck.

  • Reply to

    Someone's buying

    by crash200102150 Apr 14, 2003 12:20 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Apr 14, 2003 1:16 PM Flag

    (or) one MM was just "squaring" with another - in a pre-arranged deal. do they really do crap like that? oltarheel

  • Reply to

    Someone's buying

    by crash200102150 Apr 14, 2003 12:20 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Apr 14, 2003 1:12 PM Flag

    (or) someone had a large position with a "stop loss" on it, and a big player wanted in "cheap". the player could enter a few sales, then a huge buy. anything is possible in thinly traded stocks.

  • Reply to

    Someone's buying

    by crash200102150 Apr 14, 2003 12:20 PM
    oltarheel oltarheel Apr 14, 2003 12:45 PM Flag

    looks like 100,000 shares changed hands, in a strange manner. there must have been a large limit order at about 6 percent below the ask, and someone took them up on it. the net effect of the dump appears to be "nil" - as the stock immediately returned to it's prior trading range. hummm. in my mind, i'm sure insiders know what they are doing, but they don't know a damn thing about how to sell their stock. oltarheel

  • oltarheel by oltarheel Apr 14, 2003 10:40 AM Flag

    would have expected some volume early today - geez, we did have some good news about bookings. wonder why they released it? after all, it was what was expected. looks like we're gonna have to cut some costs and post a blowout quarterly earnings per share. that may be doable, but probably won't happen. that's the news release that I am waiting for. this stock's a double in the next 12 months, but the street doesn't realize it yet. long, a comparatively small holding to most of you guys, but my only holding at this time. oltarheel

  • oltarheel by oltarheel Apr 1, 2003 12:04 PM Flag

    hey, if the iraqis do use their chemical weapons, will this stock pop? god, i hope they don't.
    oltarheel, long a small holding

  • Reply to


    by hush20007 Feb 13, 2003 9:01 AM
    oltarheel oltarheel Feb 13, 2003 9:04 AM Flag

    just to clarify your post. that comment "appears richly valued" was YOURS and not ML's.

  • oltarheel by oltarheel Feb 13, 2003 9:00 AM Flag

    ML did not change their rating (neutral) in this morning's research report. they did shave a penny or two off future forecast - they are now forecasting break-even for the near-term. positive comments about avenues for growth. negative comments about pricing pressures and costs (even though brcd met their quarterly goal for cost-reduction). personally, i think the company is doing great in maintaining book value when others have burned cash every quarter. as ML once said, paraphrasing, "no tech company is more poised for the future than brcd".
    happy trading, oltarheel

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