Never thought that was possible - AAPL has faster growth, and operating margin of 30.5% vs. 1.7% for AMZN
massively overbought, and this upgrade is not driving volume - while there are no sellers yet (waiting for a top), there are no new buyers available .. only 1.5M shares in the first hour on a huge upgrade to $800. This type of exhaustion will results in a sell off back to Fibonacci levels .. I see 630 over next 4 weeks.
3 things on this upgrade this morning:
(1) this is a rotation upgrade - meant to allow holders that want out some high-priced liquidity today, those who buy today will be bagholders (and short-coverers)
(2) Morgan Stanley is a key underwriter in Amazon debt - this is payback, and payforward for the soon new debt issuance
(3) Morgan has been wrong over and over on Amazon's numbers .. back Jan 2013 they predicted $133B in revenue for 2015 (and they placed a $325 target on that number). Based on current consensus of $107B, they are only off by ~ 25%, and yet the target is raised to $800. No shame.
Remember - it can only go down if institutionals or insiders sell as they own 86% of AMZN - and they never sell. Its been the same holders for more this entire run from 180 4 years ago. The little bit of retail buying each day is what pushes this up against very little sell demand. This stock trades 3M shares a day, or only 0.6% of float. Not exactly liquid, and why the price moves up and up and up with no break. The inside game is to hold it and sell puts as a dividend, and then when AMZN needs capital, upgrade them, and make the commission. Very easy money and controlled by a few led by Jeff and Cap World.
That is a $36B increase in market cap over the past 2.5 weeks. Keep in mind that Amazon over its entire lifetime ( 20 yrs) has generated a grand total of $1.9B in retained earnings! Cash flow over its lifetime is negative.
AMZN has had more than $21B invested in capital and debt over its lifetime and has book value of only $11B presently ... $10B has been destroyed.
Don't be a bagholder .. 10% drop = #$%$ ... AMZN is floating on nothing but a wing and a prayer ...no fundamentals to support the price means huge drop when they show poor growth - Comscore already showed Q3 will be weak for sales at AMZN. Do you want to take that risk with such large gains already for the year?