Just to be clear...with regards to OS...Cabo was NOT BEING COMPARED TO PREDNISONE. It was being compared to Prednisone followed by Xtandi, possibly followed by RA223 as well. That is why PFS was stat-sig, but OS was not.
Many of us feared this from their trial design.
They "went for it all," swung for the fences and a home run, rather than trying to load up the bases and bring in one run at a time.
This game is not over though IMO.
I would be surprised. Think about it. Not only is the success of the company your very livelihood, but you're also going to put your own savings into that basket as well? Not very wise with regards to diversification of one's assets, retirement money.
If my salary came from a company, and I received stock options as well, I certainly wouldn't also pull money out of the bank and invest in it.
They don't know anymore than anyone what the results of the trials are going to be until they read out.
They have hunches, but that is it. No one at Exel knows what Meteor will yield, let alone Celestial.
Phil Kantoff is on of the main players at NCCN prostate cancer...Dana Farber very involved with Cabo...wonder if that has any impact on decision making. We use PFS data for drugs all the time; crikey 3/4 of our drug usage in oncology is officially "off-label."
Don't forget the NCCN. There are numerous treatments we use that have never been FDA approved, and are given based upon NCCN guidelines and Compendia listing. Even Medicare honors NCCN Compendia. Not saying it is likely at all, but a possibility given the PFS stat sig. I suspect a bigger company with deeper pockets will take exel over, and develop this promising drug.
Well said Wilder.
PFS was stat-sig, and I wonder if NCCN will pick up of that indication for that reason. We use PFS for dozens of therapeutics in oncology. OS often is the much sought after "unicorn," and as such is not always required. In this case they shot themselves in the feet pretty hard with some naïveté in designing the trial. Almost certainly xtandi and ra223 is what made the prednisone arm live longer, and obfuscated the data.
There is still Cobi, RCC, and HCC, as well as a raft of interesting smaller phase 2 trials being run around the world.
I think they were smart to swiftly and decisively cut their overhead by laying off so many people.
At this point I am going to hold steady. I may unload some as I calculate final tax burden in December, but that is it.
With PFS of 0.5 do you think there is a possibility NCCN could still pick up Compendia listing for Cabo?
I am doubtful, but thought I'd throw this question out there.
As many of suspected, and were concerned about (rightfully so it would appear), there may have been an effect of patients receiving either/both Xtandi, RA223 after coming off trial. The Prednisome arm would likely receive those drugs sooner given the PFS of Cabo, and thus good PFS data and no OS data.
Lost it all?
I will use this to offset some taxes on other capital gains.
Certainly will decrease my position, but with Cobi, RCC, and HCC there is still reason to await further data and announcements over the next year or so.
While I am disappointed, this merely represents the crazy world of biotech investing. I never invest more than I am willing to lose.
What I don't understand is your vitriol. You come across as the most hateful and emotionally damaged guy here. I think you must be one sad little cubicle monkey trying to gain "acceptance" by whatever means possible.
No worries for me here.
How much of Cobi does EXEL own in other indications beyond melanoma? Is it only partnered at this level with Roche specifically for melanoma?
You are right about cobi and melanoma. We use Zelboraf all the time now, strong data from coBrim will result in immediate adoption of the combination as the first-line in b-raf mutated.
The CEO of the Company has stated repeatedly in numerous CC exactly what you are asking for. Why are you asking for investor relations to be called when their boss has already directly answered your question multiple times?
This board is baffling beyond all thought.
Put social on ignore as most here have....and do some due diligence yourself.
If coming off for intolerance, then perhaps, though I would still have my doubts about their performance status if intolerant of cabo, and thus chances ofr sustained OS.
Look, we can all go around and around and speculate like crazy, but it doesn't matter a hill of beans.
The real issue is if one is invested hopefully awaiting positive data--then await the data; because that is the only thing that matters at this point.
Positive trial, stock goes up.
Negative trial, stock goes down.
I'm in a holding pattern, since nothing else would make sense to me at this point.
The patient who progresses after prednisone and receives further salvage therapy is likely going to be a biologically different animal than the progression following Cabo. I suspect that the progression following Cabo would represent more resisatnt disease and therefore expect diminishing retuns from Xtandi or RA223. In this sense the OS difference measure could conceivably get "washed out," and have non-significant results despite excellent activity.
Just as Heraclitus (I believe...not Googling) said (loosely)...it may be the same river every time you step into it, but it is different water.
In pretreated patients I would expect the activity of single-agent prednisone to be about a gnat's ball-hair thickness away from being zero.
If a biotech is acquired isn't it reasonable to assume a 5-7X mutliple on projected future earnings?
If Cobi might yield $300M/yr within the next 5 years wouldn't a reasonable purchase price for Exel be ~$1.5-2.1B for that asset alone? That would mean that Cabo is being given virtually no value, or if Comets positive then Cobi would be assigned no value instead.
If, and a big IF, Comets are positive, and Cobi is already in the bag I cannot imagine a scenario whereby the Exel Board lets a sale go thru for less than $5B (or a share price somewhere just north of $20 PPS).
I'm no analyst, but that is my back of the napkin guesstimate.
I suspect that if Comets positive then the biological story, and the previously seen RDT trial successes (activity in 12 of 14 cancers assessed) will start to look quite appealling to big pharma. The odds of RCC and HCC being positive would go up, as well as numerous opportunities for combinations with other targeted therapies and chemo in multiple settings and treatment lines. MM once said that they plan to build out a global franchise for Cabo, and try to see it as a backbone for mutliple cancer therapies in the future. If that starts to look like a possibility then big pharma may approach them and say; "we have the resources to get this done. We'll buy you, you make a fortune, and we will continue to pay you big bucks overseeing all this work."
Roche clearly already has faith in their management and technological expertise by already inking a deal involving hundreds of millions with Cobi. Top people at Roche clearly are quite familiar with Exel's talent and future prospects.
Most likely acquirer would be Roche, and doubt for less than $20/share.