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Onconova Therapeutics, Inc. Message Board

oncology908 6 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 30, 2015 12:40 PM Member since: Oct 31, 2013
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  • Reply to

    recent market action signals bad news

    by rvfirst Sep 30, 2015 11:54 AM
    oncology908 oncology908 Sep 30, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Comparing drugs like SP-2012 and apaz to the current line up is just plain stupid. Sure Raj got lucky on Fusilev as he was at the right place at the right time. If SP-2012 proves superiority to the current standard and if apaz has good p values in the upcoming confirmatory trial things will change on a dime. Apaz is loking at a market with no drug approved in 40 years and SP-2012 is looking at a 6 billion dollar market. Even with biosimilars competing with Amgen's drug it wont matter if they prove superiority. If that happens they will probably be bought out for billions. The current pipeline of oncology drugs are competing in a very crowded market many of which are second line therapies. The only drug in their approved pipeline that could have skyrocketed in sales would have been Zevelin if the rules on administering radioactive isotopes were changed allowing non radiology oncologist to administer it but it doesn't look like that will ever happen. Raj's biggest #$%$ in the past couple years was has claims that Fusilev patents were solid. He was wrong but an appeal is still possible and that could also be a game changer but I'm not holding my breath. IMO this is a biotech that if you see the pipeline potential you buy it and then don't look at it again for a long time with a 3 year horizon. In the mean time the hedge funds control the price action and they are clear knocking out stop losses to shake out whatever shares they can to remove the shorter term traders or those who might be stupid enough to buy on margin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Oct 23 is just one month away....

    by ouch_yikes Sep 23, 2015 9:53 AM
    oncology908 oncology908 Sep 23, 2015 10:10 PM Flag

    Good points. If Raj pens a European deal for 2012 with a decent upfront payment and fair royalties, the short rats will be jumping ship faster than you can shake a stick at them. This could result in one of the best small cap biotech squeezes seen in a long time. Don't be surprised to see the stock hit $20+. Raj is greedy #$%$ but he is not stupid. He still holds a lot of shares and he sure would like to cash them in as high as possible.

  • Reply to

    Same things as always on conf... all events in Q4

    by iome70 Sep 10, 2015 9:40 AM
    oncology908 oncology908 Sep 11, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    Usually they have break out sessions after presentations. Maybe they brought extra executives so there would be more than just Raj to speak to potential investors? SPPI does have a lot on the table concerning later stage pipeline. I suspect once some real buyers show up the shorts will start covering in force putting more upwards pressure on the shorts that are complacent about covering.

  • Reply to

    The end of the year.

    by gerald_gaffey Sep 10, 2015 4:42 PM
    oncology908 oncology908 Sep 10, 2015 5:59 PM Flag

    He said in today's conference that they expect topline results in "several months" but can't say for certain depending how long it takes for 12% more events.

    He said 065 trial will launch in next couple days.

    He claims they will launch the p2b MDS trials.

    He still suggests that a SEAMLESS "equivalence" may be approvable in Europe especially if that so called tail effect is seen later in the therapy.

  • oncology908 by oncology908 Aug 27, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    has been a large resistance level that is just itching to be broken. Raj could sign a marketing deal for 2012 in Europe which would create a large cash infusion and send the non hedged shorts scrambling. Sooner or later there has to be an EU marketing deal even if Raj plans on going it alone in the USA. The CE-Melphalan drug approval will negate much of the past dependence on Fusilev income. A court ruling against Novartis' generic dosing for colorectal cancer would be another source of ignition to a short squeeze.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oncology908 by oncology908 Jul 30, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    they have not procured a BP marketing partner for years now and they are on the hook big time to run the cardiovascular safety trials which will be costly. The company has huge financial liabilities and that is why the PPS keeps dwindling. The converts will probably be eventually turned into stock and that is how the short position will cover at rock bottom. The very hedge funds short will help keep Vivus fot.

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