OK, convince us! Direct us to the mbs of stock call signs, and the dates where you posted your hot tips from Ultimate, 'before' the stock took off, the we can then look at the yahoo price action subsequent to the hot tips and see for ourselves how good their info is!
they're the only player that would benefit from knocking the price down. Anyone else of any size pumping and dumping a dollar stock, a lot of effort and risk for peanuts. On the other hand if a player could buy a few million shares at say a dollar or two, and then at market lulls dump a few thousand here and there, that would be a cheap way to drive the momentum negative, and force aveo to hold off raising cash or dilute at a lower pps, which would also work to make any buyout cheaper, should that come down. Yeah, there's really no player besides Roche with the economic interest in making this stock tank like it just has. Gotta be Roche imo.
slim, gotta whoa them horses a bit, the market segment is big, the opportunity and threat to Roche is real, but it's not exactly next year, or the year after. First off, some of the PFS stats have to show up as OS stats in the low serum NRP-1 cohort, the longer that takes for the AVEO cohort the better. Given the significant PFS stat advantage (~69%) it's not unreasonable for an expedited approval, if the OS follows, crc is a serious killer, so all in all, there's some really good news here, but it's going to take some time, and some aggressive management to get the most out of it, crc is big, and there're lots of other pharma wannabes in the game, taking a shoestring approach is dangerous, Roche knows this, the question is, do the hedgies really get it, step up and make sure cash isn't the issue, the deal is real, 69% at P
Roche isn't going to buy until they have to. If they can spend a few million bucks to keep AVEO on a shoestring budget, then more time to market, and billions to Roche. The large holders need to step up and snap up the cheap shares, force Roche's hand. Time is money big guys!
Short interest players, naaah, no upside for them here. Then what's happening, who would benefit by damping the action? Anybody seen any Roches around here lately? Somebody's trying pretty hard to sell this down, and they don't mind throwing a few million into a sinkhole to do it!
Posted this yesterday, yahoo took it down because of the links to two market reports. You can find the market reports by searching "colorectal cancer therapeutic markets". Bottom line, current ww CRC market is ~$8-9B for the leading eight countries total, $4B in the US, the rest is made up by the other 7, Japan, Germany, etc.
Assuming the initial aveo study enrollment was agnostic to NRP-1 levels (indicated by the post trial analysis reported yesterday, vs the flop the first time out) then given the aveo trial numbers (n=177) and cohort numbers for low serum NRP-1, it's reasonable to estimate the low serum NPR-1 share of the crc market to be ~25%, or $1B US, and another $1B row. Furthermore, 17.9m vs 11.2m PFS at a P of 0.0075 is huge.
You're obviously not familiar with what happened at Enzon. Denner and his side kick Mulligan plowed an additional $200m dollars of company assets into R&D during their stewardship and then promptly sold the entire IP portfolio to a private biotech startup (BelrosePharma) for less than $1m. Either they didn't know what they were doing while in charge of the show, and foolishly spent huge money on a loosing pipeline, or, they knew what they were doing, and slipped the IP out the back door. Either way, the totally screwed Enzon investors!
Getting help from Denner would be like getting a huge from a boa constrictor. Look at his director bio at ARIA, not a mention of the five years he spent, and central role he played, helping to destroy Enzon and stealing its half billion dollars worth of IP. The fact that he's involve in a company is a serious negative imo.