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Nanosphere, Inc. (NSPH) Message Board

one_sonoran 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 24, 2014 3:07 PM Member since: Jul 6, 2000
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  • Apologies if this has been posted already. Scientific American article: The Hidden Dangers of Going Under.

    Makes you wonder if a procedure that requires being anesthetized is a good choice for a first line screening test for the general population.

  • Reply to

    Leaving Y!Finance message board for Scutify...

    by kirkydu Oct 23, 2014 1:33 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Oct 24, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    You'll be missed, you always posted good stuff. Been a long ride... up! :) Good luck to you.

  • Reply to

    How did Soros Make His Money?

    by stockman4u25 Oct 10, 2014 9:46 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Oct 12, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    Mc Garrity wasn't an outsider, he had been NSPH's Chief Commercial Officer prior to becoming CEO and had been NSPH's VP of Sales prior to that (since 2005). So he probably shuffled people around some, but his "team" would have been staff from NSPH.

  • one_sonoran one_sonoran Sep 5, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Yes, I've noticed the same, but I also notice they don't like to say specifically what their expectations are anymore (they did in earlier presentations). They also don't like to talk about the total number of current active placements. Or what the mix of tests is that are installed on the existing placements. I wonder if they record or give notice to investors of placements that "retire" (stop using their platform).

    In March of 2013 they presented that their profitable point was $75M in annual Revenue which they thought they could reach with 400-600 placements. That indicates they were expecting $125,000 to $187,000 annual revenue per placement. Wonder if that still holds. It seems to me that if they've retained all the placements they've claimed to get, they're already in the 400 - 600 range.

  • one_sonoran one_sonoran Sep 5, 2014 2:03 PM Flag

    Yes it's hard to compare placements across the two companies. The "placement" threshold in terms of the state of the contract before a placement gets recorded may be different, and exactly what's being counted (Biofire counts each unit, Nano only counts sites) are different.

    On the other hand, on a revenue per unit basis Nanosphere looks very weak compared to Biofire. It looks like Nanosphere has gotten a lot of units placed which are then not used much.

  • Reply to

    It'll take a while

    by one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 12:20 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Aug 20, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Faster than I thought :)

  • Reply to

    Ebola action

    by babyfaze122 Aug 12, 2014 3:20 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    NSPH isn't working on Ebola test, the disease is far too rare.

  • Reply to

    Hospitals are the Villians

    by wadehatton Aug 12, 2014 9:42 AM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    I think hospitals are welcoming this tech. What I see happening is that Nanosphere is making the sale, that's the easy part (relatively speaking).

    After the sale we get to the hard part, 4 to 6 months or even longer of jumping through all the hoops to qualify the hospital to run the test on-premise with their own staff. This qualifying process requires a lot of time from Nanosphere staff who have to support them as they get through this process.

    Only after the hospital is qualified and they sign a contract does Nanosphere get to count them as a "placement". Several of the qualifying procedures were held up last quarter longer than expected causing the company to miss its numbers. Managing the staff and the process to support the hospitals as the get qualified is expensive and time-consuming. If your business processes aren't the best anyway that makes this even harder.

    This seems to be where the problem is coming from

  • Reply to

    CEO's Last Company Bought Out by HOLX

    by scorekeeper101a Aug 12, 2014 1:17 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    Time will tell I guess. I think KC realizes that the real value in this company is to manage sales and production itself. I don't think he'll even license this test to other labs.

    If Exact is able to expand their diagnostic panel and use a routine test to detect a number of cancers that are difficult to diagnose now, Exact could become a major diagnostic company in its own right; and be an acquirer rather than the other way around.

  • Reply to

    Hospitals are the Villians

    by wadehatton Aug 12, 2014 9:42 AM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    I don't really think the problem here is a lack of interest in this test (or in Biofire's test for that matter). There's plenty of market here for both companies. The problem seems to be that Nanosphere greatly underestimated the complexity of clearing hospitals to use their sepsis test.

    This is taking much longer and requiring far more resources than anyone thought, this process seems to have tied up the company's rollout.

    But since for now Sepsis is really the test that makes the case for these on-premise short Time to Result tests, so they have to tough it out. I also think the stress of this clearance process is exposing some weak management practices and weakness in business execution on Nanosphere's part.

  • Reply to

    CEO's Last Company Bought Out by HOLX

    by scorekeeper101a Aug 12, 2014 1:17 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    I don't think they're going to be selling, I think it's pretty clear they intend to take this test to market and then expand the diagnostic panel out to include digestive and aero cancers.

    It was apparent in the last conference call what the company did with the money from that unexpected stock offering a few months ago; they ramped up sales staff and production capacity so they could hit the ground running after approval. That's not the action of a company looking to be acquired.

  • one_sonoran by one_sonoran Aug 12, 2014 12:20 PM Flag

    With as much contention as there is over this stock and with so many players stuck on the wrong side of this trade; it's going to take the market a while to price in this news. I'm figuring a week or two at least.

    The shorts aren't bailing but their thesis has been winnowed down to a shadow of what it was. But when you're underwater and committed to an idea you don't always act rationally. This stock almost never reacts to news right away the tape painters have to be exhausted before the true pricing can emerge.

    So I wouldn't sweat the price action much one way or the other.

  • Reply to

    After hours reporting

    by one_sonoran Jul 24, 2014 1:28 PM
    one_sonoran one_sonoran Jul 26, 2014 2:05 AM Flag

    Maybe speculative stocks that have a pattern of disappointments are just more likely to disappoint again. When they report has nothing to do with it.

NSPH
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