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InterMune, AŞ Message Board

onemodolar 31 posts  |  Last Activity: May 11, 2016 2:38 PM Member since: Dec 28, 2011
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  • Reply to

    $24,000 per year...

    by crecy_war_knight May 11, 2016 11:39 AM
    onemodolar onemodolar May 11, 2016 2:38 PM Flag

    @ crecy
    do you double your pills if it gets cheaper?
    do you start a new pill on your pts if I offer you buy 1 get 1 free?
    15k a year doesn't promote off label use - it's still a medicare fraud, imo.
    No offense!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Off-label Usage :-)

    by aneetaashah May 8, 2016 3:09 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar May 8, 2016 10:12 PM Flag

    quetiapine seroquel $10 a month. Yes you can pay out of your pocket if they are not covered.

  • Reply to

    Avanir AVP 923 vs. Pima

    by onemodolar May 8, 2016 4:07 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar May 8, 2016 8:35 PM Flag

    @tibiant - yes, you are absolutely right. I do not have any problems with smiley face. Inappropriate uncontrollable anger may be prodromal or at least part of PDP and ADP. Do you think Avanir and Acadia is targeting different population? Not a competitor in AD space? We will see. I wish i know what happened to original ADP PII. I would appreciate if anyone can chime in regarding currently planned study designs. TIA

  • Avanir was BO by Otsuka @ $ 3.5 billion in 12/14.
    Otsuka has Abilify grossing $8 billion in sales.
    Avp 923 had completed P2 in AD agitation at the time of BO.
    Avp 923 is at least 2 years ahead.
    BB had more than 20% in Avanir at that time if my recollection serves me right.
    Nuedexta has same formulation and costs $700 a month.

    Agitation,aggression and emotional burst can be different from psychosis with delusion or hallucination.
    Or.
    Is it simply all about care burden in general?

    The benefit of Pima having no dyskinesia issues won't help much in ADP or Schizo,
    I have to admit I am in this because of BB although it sounds stupid.
    It's the battle between the titans and I am trying to pick up a few dimes and pennies on the ground.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • onemodolar by onemodolar May 5, 2016 11:11 PM Flag

    Why 24k instead of 13k?
    1. I was wondering what was the issue not to say it on Monday. 13k has been used by all the analysts for all these years. I actually suspected lower pricing.
    2. Nuplazid is approved as anti-psychotic for PDP psychosis with delusion and hallucination. The market for this particular sub set of PDP is limited. Third party payor will not reimburse Pima if there is no diagnosis specifically written as "PDP psychosis". Off label usage is practically impossible unless doctors are willing to document PDP psychosis in the chart. You lose your license if you falsify diagnosis intentionally ( giving Rx to ADP pt to help). Grand theft in CA is $950.
    3. When Pima is prescribed third party payors can not reject to pay because there is no alternative medicine on their formulary. All they can do is charging high co-pay (ACAD will have pt assist program) and verify the diagnosis and indications. BMRN business model is like this.
    4. This will serve ACAD as leverage in BO negotiation. 240k means BO can happen even before ADP result is out. It tells me not to trade for chump change.
    5. ACAD can lower the price to 13k when other indication is approved. In this case "sleep" is not financially feasible indication to pursue. 24k in PDP is possible because it involves movement disorder. ACAD can enjoy higher pricing in PDP for a couple more years till label extension to other psychosis or schizo or competitor arises.
    6.I think BB and Davis have had excellent business executions so for. I will hold.

    I welcome any comments.
    I gotta go now my wife is calling for dinner.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Martin Schreli

    by onemodolar May 5, 2016 6:05 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar May 5, 2016 6:29 PM Flag

    I think you are gonna get 8k back very soon. Thx.
    I just hope Michael J. Fox doesn't tweet to Hilary or go to Washington D,C,.
    If there is a pop with this, I don't know how to kill the temptation.
    I need to ask my wife to change my Scottrade password tonight and never tell me even if I threaten her with divorce.

  • onemodolar by onemodolar May 5, 2016 6:05 PM Flag

    Can Davis pull this off without end up being in the same cell with Martin?
    ACAD is really unpredictable.
    I am all in.
    F that TA stuff.
    JUST DO IT!!!!!!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    All in

    by igonorth77 May 5, 2016 12:07 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar May 5, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    Inspired by your all in.
    placed an order to buy @ 27.2 my all in.
    forget the TA in ACAD.
    just do it ! bite the bullet !
    Yes, I am not expecting any thing new for Davis to say today.
    Yes, I may get hit with margin sellers tomorrow AM.

  • Reply to

    Evungsun

    by linkuofm May 2, 2016 2:06 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar May 3, 2016 11:41 AM Flag

    @ evngsun
    I thought you had No Balls, no? LOL!
    I have enjoyed your input for years. Thx.

    @ spader is a one of few good posters here but too arrogant. He should learn to spell the word "HUMBLE".

    @ crecy pure pumper, lacking quality to be a good doc.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Portal pressure reduced in venous cavity

    by goombajhny1 Apr 13, 2016 2:02 AM
    onemodolar onemodolar Apr 13, 2016 7:07 PM Flag

    Cowen says "buy" so I can sell you the ATM.
    Brean says "buy" but I am not buying.
    Stiefel says "buy" but it was 2 years ago.
    I say "do the secondary at $3 or $2.5 whatever and get it over with.

  • Reply to

    New coverage by Lifesci Capital LLC

    by onemodolar Mar 24, 2016 10:19 AM
    onemodolar onemodolar Apr 7, 2016 12:09 AM Flag

    QVT had 611,000 shares at $3.8 million in Mar. 2015.
    It seems no one is buying at $3 even.
    IBB is soaring.
    OCRX can not even break this level.
    No catalysts until the end of year.
    IV P2b is taking almost 3 years.
    Oral P1 redo is taking another year.

  • onemodolar by onemodolar Apr 5, 2016 11:52 AM Flag

    OCRX is ....,
    all biotech went up 20 - 30% recently,
    Look what ATM can do to your stock.

  • onemodolar onemodolar Mar 24, 2016 1:05 PM Flag

    Why did ACAD raise money in the worst time for biotech?
    Why not after Adcom or PDUFA at $40 or $50?
    What does ACAD know the rest of market don't?
    $75 million purchase was to promote secondary because no one would have participated if BB did not.
    Their royal supporter got screwed. $29 down to as low as $17. Who know those friends are calling BB "pimps" by now
    What happen to XOMA with bakers?
    I will buy on Monday if briefing docs has no surprises!

  • No price target or recommendation I can find

  • onemodolar onemodolar Mar 23, 2016 1:11 PM Flag

    That's right!
    I am ranting!

  • onemodolar onemodolar Mar 23, 2016 1:03 PM Flag

    They forecast $30 million expense this yr, It makes $13 million cash left even before the P2b enrollment is completed, They have been able to enroll less than 10 patient a month, so I think it will complete Q1, 2017.
    Top line result in Q2. No cash left by then, unless remaining $10 million credit facility is secured in addition to future ATM sales proceed. I think real money is in oral rather than iv, Any of these 2 trials will be binary event for OCRX. I am in this because Ravicti vindicated efficacy and safety. OCRX will be successful once this cash crunch resolves somehow. I resent this ATM plan. It will be hard to sell ATM since it had to be disclosed to the public, I feel I got stuck really good with this. all imo.

  • onemodolar onemodolar Mar 23, 2016 12:11 PM Flag

    I think it is all from Cowen selling ATM. According to 10-k from the company, they sold about 1 million shares at average price of $3.95 since May,2015. I think they killed the momentum after P1 oral result, Then they sold 600,000 sh more at $3 in Feb 2016. They have almost $20 million more to sell. That means 6 or 7 million more shares to sell. Cowen cashes whopping 7.75% as commission from total GROSS sales amount,

    People don't buy in if they expect secondary is coming soon. ATM is worse than secondary because it is on going. You don't know when they are going to hit you. Without imminent catalysts - P1 oral by the end of year and P2b iv not ready till 2017 first half, why should I buy this now? It's like you are entering into mine field.
    I wish they could do secondary @$3 at get it over with.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Real reason for ACAD took 3 years to file NDA?

    by onemodolar Mar 20, 2016 5:03 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar Mar 21, 2016 2:20 PM Flag

    @ spader - Thanks, much appreciated.

  • Reply to

    Real reason for ACAD took 3 years to file NDA?

    by onemodolar Mar 20, 2016 5:03 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar Mar 21, 2016 1:58 PM Flag

    @spader - good post.
    BTW,This Fri, is Good Fri. Do you still expect the briefing docs this Fri?
    You are not an idiot. Just learn to respect other posters little more before I spank you so hard,

  • Reply to

    Real reason for ACAD took 3 years to file NDA?

    by onemodolar Mar 20, 2016 5:03 PM
    onemodolar onemodolar Mar 21, 2016 12:54 PM Flag

    @golf - I hear you.

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