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Peabody Energy Corp. Message Board

onepoint272 25 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 23, 2014 10:53 PM Member since: Apr 9, 2011
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  • onepoint272 by onepoint272 Aug 23, 2014 10:53 PM Flag

    May want to keep an eye on the etf WEAT and wheat futures. StatsCan is saying the Saskatchewan wheat harvest is expected to decline 27%.

    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/sask-harvest-will-be-down-this-year-statscan-says-1.2742677

  • Reply to

    OT for One Point - JO

    by spotifyjim Aug 8, 2014 11:46 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Aug 12, 2014 12:15 AM Flag

    Today's pop in coffee may have been related to the rise in the Brazilian REAL vs the USD. Coffee is demand inelastic so it is all about supply and Brazil is far and away the largest coffee producer. So, a higher REAL takes more USD's to buy same quantity of coffee produced with REAL capital. Could be, I guess.

    Today could have been stopping action: a clear rejection of lower prices and it held the high of the range.

    JO's relative volume on the pop looks better than the future. The futures traded fewer contracts than the down days of last Thursday and Friday. Dunno for sure but could be worth a shot on an intraday retracment. Problem is JO opens at 8:30 central and the futures open at 3am. [Don't know if you watch the futures, but coffee opens at 3am central and closes at 12:30pm.] By the time JO opens any retracement could done. And I'm not sure I want to chase price since it is going against a strong downtrend of the past week or so. May have to wait.

  • Reply to

    OT for One Point - JO

    by spotifyjim Aug 8, 2014 11:46 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Aug 9, 2014 7:29 PM Flag

    I exited a long position in JO after that reversal bar on Aug 1st. So, just watching it now.

    JO and the futures closed the week at low end of the range and Friday closed below midrange. Also, coffee futures closed under the demand bar of July 3st, so I'm still waiting.

    But you may be on to something. Looking at a volume-weighted profile for a 2-year- to 5-year-long weekly chart shows the point of control (POC) at $34 and change for JO. The POC for the futures on a 5-yr-long weekly is down at $137.40 per 100#. However the profile is thick at about $178; just below Friday's close of $181. So it will take some effort to get much under that level.

    On a 6-mo-long daily, JO has a POC at $34.85. For the same period, the future's POC is a bit lower at $173.74; which is near the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA on JO is at $33.77.

    The 61.8% retracement level between 30.54 and 40.25 is 34.25. Next week's pivot support-1 level is at 33.75.

    So a price in the area of 33.77, 34.25, and 33.75 look like a potential entry to me. Now we'll see if it can show stopping action.

  • In January of 2014 this stock broke above the 2008 high of $26. The reaction off that long-term high has been bullish. Since an upthrust into longer term resistance induces selling one would have expected a significant reversal. That has not been the case. Since January the price has held the highs in in a trading range between $23 and $27; the expected selling was absorbed by buyers. A week or so ago it broke out above $27 and as of the last two trading sessions is making its way back down to retest the breakout and doing it on lighter volume.

    This came up on one of my screens and is now on my watch list. This is looking like it could be a buy in a day or two.

  • Reply to

    How low do we go?

    by imdaman20072002 Jul 25, 2014 11:16 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 27, 2014 1:02 AM Flag

    Once it got under the Nov low of 3.59 it is in uncharted territory. The 1.272 retracement however is at 3.42 and the weekly pivot S1 level is at 3.40. Amazingly the whole decline has been on relatively light volume. A bar showing stopping action with heavy volume may be something to keep an eye out on this one. The volume-weighted profiles on the weekly and daily both show the point of control at 4.20.

  • Reply to

    S&P

    by vincent90157 Jul 2, 2014 1:29 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 3, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    S&P said their debt is not sustainable. That's a nice way of saying they are going BK. They also said the chance of MET prices rising to a level soon enuf to prevent their failure is very unlikely. This recent run up is dead cat bounce.

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 3, 2014 9:57 AM Flag

    What margins? Good grief they are hemorrhaging money they don't have. Time is running out all right, time to remain in existence.

  • Reply to

    S&P

    by vincent90157 Jul 2, 2014 1:29 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 3, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    The fact remains that WLT's debt was downgraded which will affect their ability to stay in business. This holiday week is slow and easy for the bigger players to markup the stock price and distribute....be careful.

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 1, 2014 10:02 PM Flag

    .........and then the bankers will bring WLT out of receivership, dust off the equipment, and issue new stock.

  • Reply to

    Closed at HOD after useless "downgrade"

    by kem60 Jun 30, 2014 4:31 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jul 1, 2014 3:42 AM Flag

    You think? But it took all day to recover what was lost in the first 4 minutes of trading. The first 5-minutes had the highest volume of the day, then it was manipulated higher. Seems to me that all-day recovery was the retracement, right?

    It is trading well below the daily and weekly pivots. Also, it's printing lower highs and lower lows now. It's made 3 attempts to test the high of June 23rd but each time sold off at successively lower prices. It is pushing lower lows and possibly building cause to break thru that bar of June 13th. But it's been in a trading range since June 19th so just have to see which way it breaks; but I think the preponderance of evidence is pointing down.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    doing nothing

    by x2073 Jun 30, 2014 11:30 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 30, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    In the case of Walter, those patiently short from the $140's have been on the receiving end of that transfer.

  • Reply to

    WLT is Oversold at this point . . .

    by hooverist Jun 30, 2014 10:30 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 30, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    They lost what? $6.40 last year. Who in their right mind would PAY for Losses? Losses that are expected to continue worsening.

    It has been trending down from the $143.76 high. There has not been an accumulation phase nor a sign of strength to indicate it is ready to reverse trend.

    Strong Buy????....Geeeeez Louizzzz.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    S&P says Walter debt unsustainable

    by onepoint272 Jun 30, 2014 9:17 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 30, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    "The negative outlook reflects our expectation that weak met coal market
    conditions will persist, which will pressure the company's liquidity
    position," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst William Ferara . "We also
    expect very weak credit measures in 2014, with debt leverage above 20x and
    EBITDA interest coverage of less than 1x in 2014."

    We believe the company's capital structure is likely unsustainable in the
    long-term absent an improvement in met coal prices. We could lower our rating
    if met coal prices further deteriorate, liquidity becomes further constrained,
    or negative cash flow from operations is sustained. We could also lower the
    rating if the company were to risk a breach of its financial covenant. This
    could occur if the company needed to draw more than 30% on its revolving
    credit facility.

    We could revise the outlook to stable if market conditions improved and
    leverage began to trend toward 10x, with EBITDA interest coverage comfortably
    of about 1.25x. This is highly unlikely, in our view, to occur over the next
    few quarters.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Reply to

    S&P rating change is non-event...

    by ccapri1001 Jun 30, 2014 7:00 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 30, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    I think S&P's rating of the debt carries quite a bit more weight than "simply another analyst". Nevertheless their motives may be as you say. The question is what is a good entry? 50 cents, 5 cents?

  • U.S.-based coal producer Walter Energy Inc.'s debt level is
    unsustainable, in our view, given low metallurgical (met) coal price and
    reduced production expectations for the company.
    -- We are lowering our corporate credit rating on Walter to 'CCC+' from
    'B-' and our issue-level rating on its senior secured debt, which includes
    Walter's bank facilities and its 9.5% senior secured first-lien notes, to 'B-'
    from 'B'. The recovery rating on the senior secured debt remains '2'.
    -- At the same time, we are lowering our issue-level rating on the
    company's senior secured second-lien notes and senior unsecured notes to
    'CCC-' from 'CCC'. The recovery rating on the notes remains '6'.
    -- The negative outlook reflects our expectation that weak met coal
    market conditions will persist over the next 12 months, which will pressure
    the company's liquidity position. We also expect very weak credit measures in
    2014, with debt leverage above 20x and EBITDA interest coverage of less than
    1x in 2014.

  • Reply to

    OK i gotta go to work

    by hedgefundinfiltrator Jun 26, 2014 8:30 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 26, 2014 11:17 AM Flag

    Nice call.

  • Reply to

    SKUL retailer Radio Shack RSH slips below $1

    by onepoint272 Jun 20, 2014 5:48 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 25, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    Looks like it is working for you so far. I thought about it too but can't get too many irons in the fire. I'm short WLT and long coffee. Wheat is starting to look interesting (can trade the etf WEAT if no futures account).....below $6 a bushel. Apparently Warren Buffet's railroad is under orders of the Transportation Board to answer why they are not fulfilling their obligations to get last year's wheat out of the elevators. They need room for the new crop and the old crop is starting to rot. The railroad blames it on the hard winter and the demand to move the Balken oil.......moving oil probably pays better.....and maybe Buffet is getting long wheat.

  • Reply to

    Is TRMR washed out?

    by imdaman20072002 Jun 5, 2014 8:26 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 25, 2014 1:05 AM Flag

    Tues June 24th.......Probably going to get the pull back now. Closed at $4.58. Since the daily prices held above the weekly pivots for nearly 2 1/2 weeks and today closed under the weekly pivot (4.66), it COULD indicate a strong downside move. Also, it reached the weekly pivot support-1 level (4.52), indicating the TRMR market is in retracement.

    Intraday it could bounce back up to the weekly pivot or even the daily pivot (4.69) but longer term looking for the above retracement to unfold. If it holds above the pivots then that would indicate unusual strength.

  • Reply to

    Abandoned board not a good sign?

    by pa61440 Jun 20, 2014 3:12 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Jun 22, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Very interesting and astute observation about the SPY and SPX.

    4.25 TO 5.87 is a 38% pop......yes, WLT is quite a bit over-done. Even if it is going higher in the longer term, it needs to build cause between $4.25 and $6 for a long while.

    Thursday was a clear rejection of higher prices. The only question is, will there be an attempt to retest Thursday's high before heading back down to test the lows.

  • NEW YORK (AP) -- RadioShack's stock is trading below $1 per share for the first time in its history — and has the investment world wondering if it will eventually be delisted.

    Shares of RadioShack Corp. fell 9 cents, or 9 percent, to 94 cents in Friday afternoon trading after falling as low as 91 cents per share earlier in the day. The New York Stock Exchange could delist the stock if it closes below $1 per share for 30 consecutive trading days.

    The stock is well below its all-time high of $79.50 set in December 1999. Since then, RadioShack has had trouble finding its place in the evolving retail and technology landscape.

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