I track three smoothed ROC's (rate of change indicators), the 6, 12, and 24-day smoothed ROC's all bottomed yesterday and turned up today because of the stopping candle today. When all 3 turn at the same time it is very bullish. Need to see some follow thru to confirm.
Just to clear that 5.45 mid-TR line is important support. It closed today just above it at 5.46 with a stopping-action candle, a spinning top doji.
It filled the remaining open gap of Sept 6th, 5.45 to 5.48.
The last stretch above the 20sma was about 50 cents, today it got stretched below the 20 by 47 cents. Expect reversion to the mean.
5.45 is the mid-line of the trading range that began back in March. The TR is between 5.06 and 5.84 with mid-line of 5.45.
On the daily chart there is an AB=CD down. A = 6.68, B = 5.70, C = 6.10. These would give a D point of 5.12 for an AB = CD, however on this C to D leg it did not take out the B point (5.70) with greater volume which says the probability of completing the AB=CD is low. The B-point volume was 332k versus 264k on Monday the 9th.
On the weekly chart, the low-print stick was the week of 4/29 with low of 4.80 and high of 5.37. So far this week it has tested that stick with a low of 5.36 and has so far closed above it. The volume the week of 4/29 was 4.85M. The volume so far this week is 1.08M. Extrapolating to the end of this week, 1.08 x 5/3 = 1.80M. So it is coming into the low with 1.80 vs 4.85; not even close and not enough to bust lower.
Sticks...candlesticks....bars. On your chart what are you mainly watching.....bars that print every minute or every 3 minutes or every 5 minutes, etc.
So far so good rurk.....excellent call. What is your primary stick interval? 1, 5, or 10 min sticks? Thanks
Still liking this long I think. Should go up tomorrow and test today's HOD at 15.09. It doesn't seem to want to give any thing up. I would like to see it close above the range.....14.68.
It's been beaten like a dead horse so I suppose it's possible they may be rotating into this.
Contrary to Goldman's (talking their book out the front door and buying in the back office) policy, there is this from Bloomberg, Dec 1, 2013:
Signs of a rebound in global growth and gains in developing economies will support demand for raw materials, analysts at Societe Generale SA led by Michael Haigh, the head of commodities research in New York, said in a report Nov. 26. Investors have become “excessively pessimistic” on industrial metals because prices are below output costs for some producers, the bank said.
The world economy may expand 2.8 percent next year, the most since 2011, according to the economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
U.S. building permits rose in October to the highest since June 2008, Commerce Department figures released Nov. 26 showed. Four of five investors expect the Federal Reserve to delay a decision to taper stimulus until March or later, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll. The U.S. is the world’s biggest consumer of crude oil, and American builders put about 430 pounds (195 kilograms) of copper into the average home.
“There’s less fear about the global economy moving into 2014, and what that does is makes you more positive on commodity demand,” said Catherine Raw, the London-based manager of the BlackRock Commodity Strategies Fund. “The market outlook is one in which commodity prices are more stable and less likely to go down given that better demand environment.”