Oh for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage
To find the hand of Franklin reaching for the Beaufort Sea
Tracing one warm line through a land so wide and savage
And make a northwest passage to the sea
Actually there might be a reason or two for WLT to go up. One, US Dollar futures. The USD is inversely correlated to WLT. The start of this precipitous drop in WLT coincides with the break out of USD futures. Since then the USD futures have experienced an unsustainable rocket ride and are extremely and ridiculously overbot, but today they cracked. Two, stock prices don't go up forever and they don't go down forever without relief rallies
If I had been on the buy side of the millions of shares traded over the past week or so, I'd be thinking now would be a good time to juice it in the morning to spark a short-covering rally.....easy 10 to 20% upside.
The price is working against the demand bar of June 13th on much lighter volume (about 1/2 the volume). There is not enough supply (sellers) to take it much lower. The low of June 13th will be defended.
Waste of time. Just put your buy-stop in no lower than $4.71. It is technically about done on the downside.
I agree. WEAT fell thru the ice alright. However, the December CBOT future doesn't look as bad. WEAT buys and sells contracts on the Chicago and Kansas City Board of Trades and the Minneapolis Grain Exchange as well as foreign markets.
Nevertheless, the grains have been in a downtrend, and even though it went into a trading range since July 11th, demand still needs to prove itself before it can be considered bullish.
WEAT has only been around since 2011 so these are new lows. Looking at the continuous for the CBOT though, it is parked right at a diagonal support line going back to early 2005. A linear regression line beginning in 2003 is sloping up and is now at about 800, or about 49.5% higher than the current price of 535.5. But I'm in no hurry, Waiting to see how it reacts this week off this support line.
RSG came up on my screener and has massive insider buying. SCCO looks good too. Natus is another I've been watching; ticker BABY.
Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) once again is a stand-out on the insider buying sheets. With five separate purchases this week, Cascade Investments, the private investment arm of billionaire Microsoft founder Bill Gates, continues to add to its massive stake in the waste collection company. Cascade bought a staggering total of 1,202,116 shares of stock this week, at prices that ranged from $39.29 to $39.50. The total cost for the trades was a jaw-dropping $47.4 million. Shares ended the week’s trading at $39.33.
Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE: SCCO) also had insider buying that could make Wall Street analysts sit up and take note. The mining leader has rallied this year, reversing some of the losses posted last year as spot prices declined. In what has to be viewed as a very bullish statement, the chairman of the board made three separate purchases this week that totaled 570,000 shares at prices that ranged from $31.36 to $32.87. The total purchase price for the three buys was a gigantic $18.5 million. This is extremely bullish for shareholders. The stock closed Friday at $32.81.
I guess in the very long term, food is very bullish. At current population growth rates there will be 9 billion people on the planet by 2050. We don't currently produce near enough food for that many people. We will need to produce as much food in the next 40 years as we have in all of the last 500 years. There are negligible additional lands available that can support agriculture. Soil and the availability of water are limiting factors.
Further use of GMO's is inevitable but soil health will become stressed; stressed to the point where the soil will actually produce less instead of more. The need for more and more food will make food availability and prices much more sensitive to weather variables.
Currently in the USA it takes 9 calories of petroleum to produce 1 calorie of food. Thus the definition of modern agriculture: The use of land to convert fossil fuels into food. The growing of corn and oil seeds to produce ethanol and biodiesel is a loser. It is questionable whether or not there is even the slightest gain in energy by this subsidized policy and eventually it won't be an option; every acre will need to be devoted to food production. There is no doubt in my mind that we have reached or are right at world-peak-oil simply because we're now going after the hard to get sources, like NG trapped in shale formations, dangerously-deep ocean reserves, and even tar sands. Sure, at the peak we still have 1/2 the fossil fuel remaining but we're now not able to exponentially increase fossil fuel production; we're on the downhill side of the bell curve and no matter how much technology we pour into its extraction, the production rate will relentlessly continue to fall....energy prices will rise......food prices will rise. And food prices will become more and more sensitive to the slightest of energy production disruptions.
The bottom line: starving people don't care about how music through headphones may increase their personal best on a stair stepper.
I haven't bot any yet. It's been in a tight trading range (TR) the last few weeks. Of course the question is the same as it is for all TR's, is it being accumulated or distribute? Since there aren't any signs of distribution, I think I have to go with the trend, the demand in the background, and assume it is being re-accumulated for the next leg higher.
On the daily chart, I have the short-term TR defined by the low of Aug 7th at 27.07 and by the high of Aug 14th at 28.22. It had a sign of strength on Aug 26th and broke above the 28.22 high. But then it failed to rally on lack of demand and settled back just inside the range. But there doesn't seem to be enough supply either (willing sellers) to take it down.
The daily chart is still bullish as is the weekly and monthly. A sudden sign of weakness would change that but if it just drifts lower, it would have to get under $22.52 (the low of the week of Jan 27th) to be considered bearish imo.
May want to keep an eye on the etf WEAT and wheat futures. StatsCan is saying the Saskatchewan wheat harvest is expected to decline 27%.
Today's pop in coffee may have been related to the rise in the Brazilian REAL vs the USD. Coffee is demand inelastic so it is all about supply and Brazil is far and away the largest coffee producer. So, a higher REAL takes more USD's to buy same quantity of coffee produced with REAL capital. Could be, I guess.
Today could have been stopping action: a clear rejection of lower prices and it held the high of the range.
JO's relative volume on the pop looks better than the future. The futures traded fewer contracts than the down days of last Thursday and Friday. Dunno for sure but could be worth a shot on an intraday retracment. Problem is JO opens at 8:30 central and the futures open at 3am. [Don't know if you watch the futures, but coffee opens at 3am central and closes at 12:30pm.] By the time JO opens any retracement could done. And I'm not sure I want to chase price since it is going against a strong downtrend of the past week or so. May have to wait.
I exited a long position in JO after that reversal bar on Aug 1st. So, just watching it now.
JO and the futures closed the week at low end of the range and Friday closed below midrange. Also, coffee futures closed under the demand bar of July 3st, so I'm still waiting.
But you may be on to something. Looking at a volume-weighted profile for a 2-year- to 5-year-long weekly chart shows the point of control (POC) at $34 and change for JO. The POC for the futures on a 5-yr-long weekly is down at $137.40 per 100#. However the profile is thick at about $178; just below Friday's close of $181. So it will take some effort to get much under that level.
On a 6-mo-long daily, JO has a POC at $34.85. For the same period, the future's POC is a bit lower at $173.74; which is near the 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA on JO is at $33.77.
The 61.8% retracement level between 30.54 and 40.25 is 34.25. Next week's pivot support-1 level is at 33.75.
So a price in the area of 33.77, 34.25, and 33.75 look like a potential entry to me. Now we'll see if it can show stopping action.
In January of 2014 this stock broke above the 2008 high of $26. The reaction off that long-term high has been bullish. Since an upthrust into longer term resistance induces selling one would have expected a significant reversal. That has not been the case. Since January the price has held the highs in in a trading range between $23 and $27; the expected selling was absorbed by buyers. A week or so ago it broke out above $27 and as of the last two trading sessions is making its way back down to retest the breakout and doing it on lighter volume.
This came up on one of my screens and is now on my watch list. This is looking like it could be a buy in a day or two.
Once it got under the Nov low of 3.59 it is in uncharted territory. The 1.272 retracement however is at 3.42 and the weekly pivot S1 level is at 3.40. Amazingly the whole decline has been on relatively light volume. A bar showing stopping action with heavy volume may be something to keep an eye out on this one. The volume-weighted profiles on the weekly and daily both show the point of control at 4.20.
S&P said their debt is not sustainable. That's a nice way of saying they are going BK. They also said the chance of MET prices rising to a level soon enuf to prevent their failure is very unlikely. This recent run up is dead cat bounce.
What margins? Good grief they are hemorrhaging money they don't have. Time is running out all right, time to remain in existence.
The fact remains that WLT's debt was downgraded which will affect their ability to stay in business. This holiday week is slow and easy for the bigger players to markup the stock price and distribute....be careful.
.........and then the bankers will bring WLT out of receivership, dust off the equipment, and issue new stock.