Actually, I have an alternate count that puts ending action on Wednesday or Thursday. Nevertheless, looking for ending action this upcoming week, probably as low as 8.30. The intersection of the Nov 6th low (8.31) and the lower trend line of the up-sloping channel occurs on Thursday. Next week's pivot support-1 level is at 8.46 and the pivot support-2 level is at 8.26. The more important monthly pivot support-1 level is at 8.33.
Well, only made it to 9.71 before turning down. 12 days since that swing high and so far today printed a low of 8.70. This latest wave down from Thursday's high of 9.13 should be the last wave down. Looking for stopping action on Monday or Tuesday of next week.
"Shame JO hasn't moved much to the upside yet, but still in the channel, you think it's just building cause to move higher?"
For coffee futures on the hourly chart, it had been channeling down the last 9 days. It is now at the lower trend line of that down-channel. During the last hour Monday it had a buying bar but since it hadn't built any cause, as expected, it drifted back down. But it took 8 bars to take back that one buying bar. The last 2 hours on Tuesday it had heavy volume but little price movement which is good because it means buyers are absorbing supply. So I think its due to begin a leg up on the hourly. I want to see coffee get over 185.55 and preferably 186.00 (the daily pivot) on Wednesday.
The coffee daily has just finished an AB=CD down. So again, on Wednesday I want to see some fire under this thing. If it goes up on weak volume it may morph into 5-waves down. If its weak going back up I may trail a stop and let the market take me out. If its strong on the bounce then I guess I hold.
The strong US dollar is just killing commodities. Longer term the strong dollar is going to cause political unrest in developing countries like......Brazil and Columbia, who have dollar-denominated debt and coffee supplies may suffer but until then I don't want to ride out a coffee price decline either.
The rest of this week will be the tell for me.
"So I presume the probability of hitting those targets decreases as you move down the list i.e. very small chance of 90.85 being hit this month. 1.272 would be quite normal, 1.5 less so and 1.618 an off chance?"
Yes that is true but more importantly extended stocks represent an abnormal supply and demand situation.
All of the stock that can possibly trade, at first, is only limited by the float and some of that owned by those who will never sell for whatever reason. Then there are those who believe in their own fundamental analysis and won't sell until some change in their model occurs. Which then leaves the position traders and swing traders who ride the trend, and in the normal situation fear comes into play and the price corrects and you get waves up; a healthy advance.
But once extended, the supply of stock available to trade gets smaller and smaller and the price new investors pay goes higher and higher as the "supply" available to trade gets squeezed. Most are euphoric when they should be scared. They are buying for the long term at the wrong time.
But fear comes eventually and the real traders will get out immediately and then suddenly the "supply" of stock for sale explodes and the demand implodes and the price drops precipitously. Many noobs own the stock and at first won't believe their own eyes.
It is a game of chicken really. Over the 1.272 extension is no time to be complacent. Rather it needs to be watched closely and a trailing stop considered, in order to maximize return. Even now, with RCL extended 1.272 to near $77 it would be normal to see it correct to $50, a 35% decline, and once price gets to the 1.618 extension they often correct the whole C to D move which for RCL would be a move from $91 to $19, a 79% decline. A lot of believers of stories get trapped and become baggies because they ignore the supply and demand principle. RCL is a cyclical, it will turn eventually.
You got in at a great price and can simply ride the trend.
I see RCL is up 4% in the post/pre-market....being added to the S&P 500. However the monthly is at a key level....
A = 5.40 March 2009
B = 49.99 Jan 2011
C = 18.70 Oct 2011
D for CD = AB: 63.29 (hit and broke above)
D for CD = 1.272(AB): 75.42 (76.20 hit this AM pre-market)
D for CD = 1.5(AB): 85.59
D for CD = 1.618(AB): 90.85 (Extreme CAUTION)
My best guess absent of any significant news noise. I think it needs to build cause in that range, 8.36 to 10.05, before it can move much higher. At least that would be the healthy and sustainable way to do it. If it does break higher it should be short lived as no cause was built to sustain the move.
Supply vs. Demand Cause vs. Effect Effort vs. Result
I suppose too, that demand for cruises is expected to be up since people who cruise will have more disposable income with lower gasoline prices. Or do ya'll call it "petro" ?
Darling S Hoby PRESIDENT AND CEO
Nov 18 Buy @ $8.13 3,000 shares = $24,386 Total shares owned = 100,669
Hodell Jason CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
Nov 18 Buy $8.12 4,300 shares = $34,916 Total shares owned = 61,469
Maybe there is only ONE reason why insiders buy.........Nahhhh. As usual, I'm skeptical. Alden still has many shares to sell. Alden could have just opened his wallet one day and said, here's $60k boys, Merry Christmas, but you have to buy stock with it. $60k is cheap pump money when you stand to make millions.
ARRA was an act of Congress. An act, a law, on its own accord. It was an funded by Congress. It was not an earmark of some other bill.
The Affordable Health Care Act was an ACT of Congress. Funds to implement the law are appropriated by Congress.
How much was spent in total on the Iraq war, an act of the Bush Administration to find the ever allusive weapons of mass destruction? What a cluster uck that was, led us right into a massive recession but it did benefit the fat cats in the military industrial complex and the oil patch including VP Chaney, major shareholder of Haliburton. But the veterans came home and couldn't get decent healthcare.
The smart money, the large hedge firms, un-wound their shorts on the way down (see one of the recent articles listed on the yahoo summary page). This leaves the dumb-money or small-timer shorts. The smart money now wants to pierce the 3.60 swing because just above that level is where the dumb-money shorts have placed their stop-loss/buy orders.
The retracement between the 1.47 low and the 3.60 high was only to the 38.2% fib level which is shallow and indicates demand is present.
After moving up from the lower channel boundary at 2.75, it has been building cause for the past four days with clustered closes (a high-tight flag). Closing prices: 3.25, 3.29, 3.24, and today will likely be right in there too. This is bullish and the next target should be 3.60. The smart/big money is absorbing sellers, holding the price up, waiting for the funds and specs to mark it up. The longer it builds cause the easier it will be to mark up through the bar of Nov 10th to the 3.60 swing.
That worked......63.56 to 73.33 in one day; close enough. Judging by the "thumbs down", some of the short interest is represented on this discussion board. I short myself, but not when the tape is saying to buy. Better luck on your next trade.
One of Goldman Sachs' trading ideas for 2015 is to short copper and buy nickel. Apparently new supplies of copper are being found in Asia but nickel is expected to be in short supply in years to come. The copper/nickel idea is at the end of a MSN video entitled "goldman-stock-market-in-2015". Search for it. (yahoo won't allow posting links)
Also yesterday, Tom Obrien of TFNN had Greg Johnson, CEO of Well Green Platinum, as a guest. Greg used to be with Nova Gold. They are developing an open-pit mine in the Yukon which will yield chiefly nickel and platinum. Most Nickel and Platinum is deep so it is unusual to find it so close to the surface that it can be pit mined. Also, the mine is located near a paved highway and a port where they can ship concentrate. So there is infrastructure in place to make this a low cost producer not to mention that it is in Canada and not Russia (where there is the risk of government confiscation of mines after they start producing). In 2 years they expect to have permits in place and construction to begin in 2017.
They are one of only 26 mines out of about 1700 mines who sought venture capital that were able to obtain more than $10M. They raised 18.7M in 2014.
Checked their stock (ticker WG in Canada and WGPLF in US) and found it trades fairly thin, about 50,000 shares/day, but it is a very orderly chart. Anyway, Friday it jumped the creek, and Monday it was up 15%. I will wait for a pullback. Good interview, worth a listen. Should be able to watch it from the Tom Obrien Show archive for his 1st hour on Monday Nov 24th. (again you'll have to search for the site, easy to find)
Oh absolutely I agree, in the long term, yes indeed. Thanks for adding the needed clarification. I'm grateful you qualified your premise with the word "eventually". My fundamental bias has always been bearish on this company and that has not changed.
I think Tank is just looking to get out of a bad trade as are a boat-load of longs up in that $10 area. I'll probably be looking to get short, eventually.
It is working on the $3.25 price point.....the high of the high-volume stick of Nov 7th. It tested it Friday and closed right at $3.25. Today, Monday, it is not backing down, despite the negative press over the weekend. That's impressive. Tells me that the smart/big money is holding it up until the funds and specs are ready to mark it up. The volume is light, which says there are not many willing sellers.