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Skullcandy, Inc. (SKUL) Message Board

onepoint272 45 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 14, 2014 10:35 PM Member since: Apr 9, 2011
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  • Reply to

    trendline or moving averages ???

    by divin4tacos Nov 11, 2014 11:43 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 11, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    The way I look at it, the price can't stay so far above the 20-day SMA for long without a return to that mean. Fortuantely the 20-day SMA is sloping up sharply. Had a bit of a buying climax Monday with follow thru today, but there is demand in the background and it hasn't built any cause (sideways trading range) so this break is not supply coming in but just establishing the lower boundary of a trading range where it can build cause either for higher or lower prices. Have to assume it will build cause for higher prices since demand is in the background until proven otherwise by a sign of weakness (wide price range with high volume).

  • After moving up from the lower channel boundary at 2.75, it has been building cause for the past four days with clustered closes (a high-tight flag). Closing prices: 3.25, 3.29, 3.24, and today will likely be right in there too. This is bullish and the next target should be 3.60. The smart/big money is absorbing sellers, holding the price up, waiting for the funds and specs to mark it up. The longer it builds cause the easier it will be to mark up through the bar of Nov 10th to the 3.60 swing.

  • Reply to

    i still own 500 around 16 pps

    by anonymousnottelling Nov 19, 2014 4:48 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 21, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Unfettered capitalism is a bad thing. There are many people trying to raise a family on 2 or more jobs and yet they could not even before this time afford basic health care and catastrophic health insurance. These people, I dare say the majority, contribute greatly to the economic system and yet they do not share in its bounty Hospitals used to be largely non-profit organizations run by churches or local community boards. They have largely disappeared; sold out to the empty promise that the profit motive can provide better service. For who?

    There is a great selfishness that has taken over the US and through their control of the media the elite have managed to convince the masses by a pervasive campaign beginning at the time of FDR and accelerated in the past 35 years, that selfishness is righteous and have affected them to vote against their better interest. However, the truth lies in the middle. There is a sliding scale with "Freedom" at one end and "Equality" on the other. You can't have all of both. More freedom means less equality and visa-verse. Capitalism by its very definition concentrates wealth and leads to general inequality. It must be tempered.

  • Reply to

    Debt for Equity

    by kevinbarrylaw Nov 19, 2014 12:49 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 19, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Remember, the equity is heavily sold short even after doubling in less than a month. Apparently the so-called debt holder whom you refer, the one who wears the big-boy pants, believes he'll do better with the equity. That's not so hard to understand. Fortunately, we don't have to know what the equity is worth. All we need to know is what the guy with the big-boy pants is doing.......and he's going with the equity.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    if WLT breaks 3.50 I will reenter

    by kems1xty Nov 17, 2014 1:43 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 17, 2014 2:43 PM Flag

    The bar of Sept 24th had a high of $2.81 on volume of nearly 19 million shares. On Nov 12th, 13th, and 14th it backed into that bar with 3.4 million, 4.2 million, and 3.0 million, respectively. Each day the price rejected $2.81 and closed higher. Not enough supply (willing sellers) to move the price lower. If the market makers can't find enough sellers they have to take the price higher to find sellers.

    Now there is a trading range defined between $3.60 and $2.75 where it should build cause for higher price. It doesn't need high volume to move higher out of the range but it does to move down out of the range. So the best risk reward ratio is to buy at the bottom of the range. Only a big down day with high volume should stop you out.

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 25, 2014 3:20 PM Flag

    That worked......63.56 to 73.33 in one day; close enough. Judging by the "thumbs down", some of the short interest is represented on this discussion board. I short myself, but not when the tape is saying to buy. Better luck on your next trade.

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 22, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    Those kinds of articles are not random but bought and paid for by large interests to promote there position or intended campaign. The timing is evidence of that. It is of course important to recognize that they wouldn't pay for a bad report unless they were wanting to buy. The public is the source of supply (of stock) from whom they can manipulate into selling. The fact that the analysis is offered up free for all on yahoo is proof that they are buying. If the large interests were wanting to sell, the article would be bullish. I am not suggesting this article won't send the price lower short term, but I am suggesting that the large interests are accumulating and therefore lower lows are no longer a concern because at some point the large interests will be stepping in to buy hand over fist and a trading range should develop for some time to come. Once they have accumulated their full measure then they will buy and publish bullish press to create a mark up....wait and see.

  • onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 11, 2014 10:22 PM Flag

    Just window shopping as this one came up on a screen of highly shorted stocks. This was in a trading range (TR) going back to late July between about $52 and $62. It had supply (selling) in the background coming into the TR so you'd have to assume the downtrend would continue unless proven otherwise, until a sign of strength presented itself in the right-hand side of the TR........which it did on Oct 31st. Demand has now proven itself, therefore it does not need high volume to move higher. The 200day SMA is coincidentally about the same level as the supply bar of June 18, 2014. That bar has a high of 64.33. Once the price gets above that bar it will likely explode to the upside and attack the swing highs of May at about $73. Right now the big players are absorbing sellers (buying at resistance); holding it up in the upper range of the demand bar, until the funds and specs are confident to move it up above 64.33 at which time the shorts (37% of float by last count) will become discouraged and be forced to buy causing the price to rise rapidly. I think I've just talked myself into picking up some shares.

  • Reply to

    60 Minutes story

    by carl12359 Nov 24, 2014 10:20 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 26, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    ARRA was an act of Congress. An act, a law, on its own accord. It was an funded by Congress. It was not an earmark of some other bill.

    The Affordable Health Care Act was an ACT of Congress. Funds to implement the law are appropriated by Congress.

    How much was spent in total on the Iraq war, an act of the Bush Administration to find the ever allusive weapons of mass destruction? What a cluster uck that was, led us right into a massive recession but it did benefit the fat cats in the military industrial complex and the oil patch including VP Chaney, major shareholder of Haliburton. But the veterans came home and couldn't get decent healthcare.

  • Reply to

    Insider buying

    by hottubber99 Nov 29, 2014 12:00 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 29, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    Darling S Hoby PRESIDENT AND CEO
    Nov 18 Buy @ $8.13 3,000 shares = $24,386 Total shares owned = 100,669

    Nov 18 Buy $8.12 4,300 shares = $34,916 Total shares owned = 61,469

    Maybe there is only ONE reason why insiders buy.........Nahhhh. As usual, I'm skeptical. Alden still has many shares to sell. Alden could have just opened his wallet one day and said, here's $60k boys, Merry Christmas, but you have to buy stock with it. $60k is cheap pump money when you stand to make millions.

  • Reply to

    One point advice

    by tankstepp Nov 24, 2014 10:18 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 24, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    Oh absolutely I agree, in the long term, yes indeed. Thanks for adding the needed clarification. I'm grateful you qualified your premise with the word "eventually". My fundamental bias has always been bearish on this company and that has not changed.

    I think Tank is just looking to get out of a bad trade as are a boat-load of longs up in that $10 area. I'll probably be looking to get short, eventually.

  • Reply to

    Clustered closes at the highs ~ Bullish

    by onepoint272 Nov 26, 2014 2:28 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 26, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    The smart money, the large hedge firms, un-wound their shorts on the way down (see one of the recent articles listed on the yahoo summary page). This leaves the dumb-money or small-timer shorts. The smart money now wants to pierce the 3.60 swing because just above that level is where the dumb-money shorts have placed their stop-loss/buy orders.

    The retracement between the 1.47 low and the 3.60 high was only to the 38.2% fib level which is shallow and indicates demand is present.

  • Reply to

    10.00 to 10.05....... then....... 8.45 to 8.36

    by onepoint272 Nov 30, 2014 3:48 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Dec 14, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    Actually, I have an alternate count that puts ending action on Wednesday or Thursday. Nevertheless, looking for ending action this upcoming week, probably as low as 8.30. The intersection of the Nov 6th low (8.31) and the lower trend line of the up-sloping channel occurs on Thursday. Next week's pivot support-1 level is at 8.46 and the pivot support-2 level is at 8.26. The more important monthly pivot support-1 level is at 8.33.

  • Reply to

    OT: Garbage Stock & other picks

    by onepoint272 Sep 1, 2014 8:16 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Oct 26, 2014 4:34 PM Flag

    Sept 1 to Oct 25 results:

    SCCO----down 11%
    BABY -----up 18%

    So much for the insider buying indicator / hype, but at least they didn't throw the baby out with the bath water.

  • Reply to

    OT: Garbage Stock & other picks

    by onepoint272 Sep 1, 2014 8:16 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Oct 28, 2014 3:01 AM Flag

    Aye, I've been eye-ing JO too. It's set up a gentle up-trending channel going back to July with lows on July 15 and Sept 19 and what looks like a 3rd low right in here somewhere and maybe as low as the high 34's. It appears to be holding well to the rule which says "the first significant reaction high after a low becomes support. So, Feb 18th became support for July 15th; then July 18th became support for Sept 19th; and now Sept 24th is current support. It might be prudent though to wait for it to base a few more days and wait for a break above and retest of the 9-day EMA (trigger line).

    WEAT appears to have finished an ABCD up move with the CD leg = 1.272 of the AB leg. The Fib retracement confluence (38.2% of AD and 61.8% of CD) is $11.55 and $11.43, respectively. Monday it tagged that zone printing a low of 11.52. But it's only got about a 6% move higher before bumping into the 12.50 resistance area (bottom of the July 11th to Sept 2nd trading range) . The December contract is already bumping up against that trading range. So the fact that WEAT is lagging the front month contract gives me some caution.

    Of course the USD futures (can use the UUP as a proxy) were nearly straight up between July 1st and Oct 3rd which killed the commodities. Now it is consolidating in a trading range. It may have already shown a sign of weakness (SOW) on Oct 15th. If it breaks down out of the range, commodities should take off to the up side.

  • Reply to

    trendline or moving averages ???

    by divin4tacos Nov 11, 2014 11:43 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 14, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Yeah it will probably come close. The 20 has flattened but it is still rising. So far price has only retraced to the 38.2% fib and on shrinking volume; supply is drying up. To get any action the market makers will have to take it back up to find willing sellers. All in all the daily chart is still bullish. Just needs to build cause, trade in a range, for awhile I think.

  • Reply to

    Bot Coffee (JO) again

    by onepoint272 Nov 14, 2014 1:16 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 14, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    Correction : Picked up JO at 35.75.

    The monthly chart on this looks really good. A high flag (TR) within and above the high range of the super-strong SOS of February. Coming off the bottom of that TR now. It bounced off the sharply rising 12-month SMA. It is in the right hand side of the TR, so a sign of strength in the next couple months would portend a move out of the range, above $43.

  • Reply to

    One point advice

    by tankstepp Nov 24, 2014 10:18 AM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 24, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    I don't know, but my thoughts::

    The general market will probably rally into the end of the year.

    WIN's monthly and weekly charts both show that July bar with a long upper shadow with high volume; a buying climax to a high of 13.30 and then a decline. I would expect a retest into the upper shadow of July. WIN has done a 61.8% retracement of the move between 7.18 and 13.30. A 61.8% retracement is normal. On the monthly, in November it tested the low of July and is thus far back above the July low and on lower volume. That is positive. The price is below the 9-month ema, that's negative, but the slope of the 12-month SMA is still upward. On the weekly and daily the sell stops are just under 9.28. If it gets back down there, have to wait and see if the smart money steps in and buys the sell stops

    SKUL's daily chart has that high-volume high at $11.40 from March 7th. It may not test the tippy top of that bar but it is wanting to go for it. It may need to build more cause though.

    SKUL went into a trading range in early August between about 7.50 and 8.50; a $1 range. A measured move would bring it to 8.50 + 1.00 = 9.50, which is where it is now. Also, using A=7.40, B=9.10, C=7.86, then D = 9.56 for an AB=CD. It could extend; the next level is a 1.272 extension at 10.02, but I expect (or hope) it'll retrace to about $9 and build more cause.

    On Nov 20th SKUL had a nice sign of strength with a high of 9.10. So, it has demand in the background and is a bullish chart. There is of course significant historical resistance at about $12. But, with demand in the background it does not need high volume to move higher and to get bearish it would have to go into a trading range (TR) and then show a sign of weakness (SOW) in the right hand side of that TR. So as I see it you can either hold on or trade out and get back in again at about $9 and essentially pick up a 50 cent gain. I think I'd be inclined to just hold on though because it could just grind higher.

  • " the recent move higher for this spotlighted company MAY DEFINITELY continue over the next few weeks."


  • Reply to

    Why the big swings up and down?

    by kauiakid Nov 13, 2014 2:38 PM
    onepoint272 onepoint272 Nov 14, 2014 1:30 PM Flag

    Could be just technical. After the buy climax (bearish engulfing candle) there were 2 days of down with lighter volume and then stopping action on Tuesday. Wednesday it shot back up to test the 1/2 way point of the bearish engulfing. It hadn't built any cause so you knew that that move couldn't be sustained and the volume was way light given the large price increase. So the next day it broke down.

    The market makers make money by making a market; they have to take the price to where they can get some action. So they test and retest prices where there was good volume. I think that is all that was happening. But that high volume off the top, the bearish engulfing on Nov 6th, would concern me if I was long SKUL.

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