I know, I know.
What gets me though is how he and Michael would joke about my market auction principles regarding the manipulation. It makes you wonder if the boyz plant guys on these boards to evangelize the buy and hold mantra so they can sell. Well, it's pretty obvious now that I was right about the boyz manipulating the market higher as they sold. Whether or not Charles and Michael really believe that buy and hold K rap will probably remain a mystery.
7.58 is a 61.8% retracement between the 6.95 low and the 8.60 high. So far they are not letting it even touch 7.58. I may leg in a long here.
Something might be up, given the sell off before earnings and given that SA published a bearish article (the "Charles" article). But even so, some big money has had to step in and absorb a lot of selling. They don't do this and then just let it go to zero. They will bounce it eventually.
I like Charles, he''s a gentleman. But many longs who read this board must be saying he's no friend to the longs on this board. Sells out, then writes a Seeking Alpha article, then submits it, then it gets published.......and then he decides to tell his buddies on this board about it. It is a suspicious chain of events, no doubt about it.
I'm glad he did it, I was short. But he shafted the longs here that's for sure.
He was arguing against my posts during the markup, but then much of his article could have been a cut and paste of my stuff which he was poo pooing until recently. So then he has a coming to Jesus moment and decides all of a sudden that the fundamentals have changed????? So, who's he working for? Maybe nobody. The real question is, why did SA publish it? We're they paid to help get the public to sell?
Is somebody buying?
Your fooling yourself. Earnings are of no consequence.
Since there is a sell off, some big money had to step in and buy. They need to get rid of that stock and will likely initiate a bounce so they can at least break even. I doubt they can get much going before the ER. So they'll have to do it in the 1/2 hour between the ER and CC. Take advantage of it.
You know what I think of course but I'll say it anyway. Good move. Doesn't it feel better? Now you are free to think clearly.
Besides you can't look at it like you are going to miss the boat. You got out at good prices and won't miss a thing even if it did pop, because you can buy the following retracement. They always come back to near the break out price for retest.
The thing is RSH has a plan to turn things around. They even had a Super Bowl commercial about it. Don't matter, the big money was selling on the way up. The public was buying. It's time for the public to give it up. This isn't socialism, it's business.
Now look at SKUL, they don't even have a plan to turn things around.
RSH closed out 2013 at $2.02 and channeled higher (just like SKUL) to a closing high yesterday at $2.79; a 37% price rise........looked good but it was all distribution. The boyz were selling on the way up. The public was left holding the bag with no one to sell to and it got clocked, closing today at 2.25.. In the coming days it will likely go all the way back down to $2.02, the 2013 price.
SKUL closed 2013 at $6.04 and has run up so far 42% to the highest close of 8.60. Why? Because of a random upgrade? NOT. Distribution? yep.
Estimated loss was $0.163. Actual loss $1.28. Ouch. They took it out back and beat it into the pavement. Share price closed down 17.28%. Help RSH out; go buy some batteries or something or headphones if you must.
No change, I was being cordial.
And aren't you consistent with yet another in a long list of feeble-minded personal attacks. How about a contribution sometime? Do you know anything?
Although I'm not in that camp, there is an argument that can be made for a shakeout, but you are incapable of making it. Thus your resort to the personal attack.
But regards outlook, if you listen to Hoby in his CES interview, he clearly states, with a boyish enthusiastic smile, that it is going to get worse before it gets better. He's not calling a bottom, he's saying revenues are going to suffer in order to clean up the brand. So, I don't expect any up side surprises on revs.
The only hope left then is a belief that after a few years they'll be able to clean up the brand and revs will bottom out. Do you want to be holding this a few years to find out? More importantly do the big accounts. I don't think so. I think they've been selling this markup.
And how can you justify a PE of 80 plus on a company with declining revenue growth? How can you justify even 20? I don't think people realize the danger here.
Good arguments, particularly, the possible shakeout.
You say they are 2x more likely to beat. On revs, earnings or both? I don't think past performance matters, we already know that even a beat of last quarter's, or last year's most recent estimates is still abysmal. Their past performance is enough to send it under $2 by itself.
So I think your hope has to lie in the outlook. They are expected to earn 9.5 cents next year. So let's say they surprise and announce they anticipate 2014 annual earnings 150% higher, or 14 cents. So what is a reasonable multiplier? 20, 30, 40? Say 40. That gives a stock price $5.60.
I don't really care because I'll trade whatever comes. I'm just playing devils advocate because nobody else is.
Tuesday, March 4th after 1.5 hours of trading
Well, that felt real. More volume in the first 30 minutes than all of yesterday, and hard down . Ran the stops at the top to 8.53 and then hard down to 7.82. The bounce is feeble; lack of demand. Probably want to sell the intraday bounce, unless of course you just can't believe your own eyes and plan to ride out the ER/CC .
This topped on Feb 27th and is in the 3rd wave, a down wave, of 7 total waves. Too early to tell when it will end, but the probabilities favor it will end below today's low, 7.82 so far. I'm still thinking $6.
When they mark it up on low volume, hold it up there, to presumably sell their inventory, and then it sells off with volume that is a bad sign; evidence that they were selling. Look for it to bounce about 1/2 way back up and the volume to dry up......then another leg down.
Monday, March 3rd, after close:
The SPX, DJIA, NazQuack, and RUT should bounce starting Tuesday but are all due to top on Friday; the Naz is stronger and actually showing a top on Monday but they'll probably all fall apart together. Then look for at least a couple weeks down.
Forgetabout: your bags in WYY and SINA are not going to get lighter; you need to get out. SINA is leading the way down; it should bounce just a little but don't hang on too much longer. You should have until Friday or Monday at the latest before WYY falls back down to the lows of the range. Again your looking at 2 weeks down minimum. If volume comes in on the way down you do not want to buy it back.
Mar 3, 2014 after close:
Coffee futures and JO will top Thursday or Friday, Mar 6th or 7th.
Sugar futures and SGG should have finished up last Thursday but want to buy in a week or two.
Not a very bullish day huh. Ran the stops at the open down to 8.03 but did not venture into the real supply sitting under 8.02. So they are not really wanting to buy. Ran it back up on low volume, then the rest of the day down on heavy volume and up on light volume.....distribution......net selling by the smart money. And where is last-hour demand from the institutions? I just don't see it. Somebody stop me from shorting my life savings here.
Anyone looking to get out before the ER/CC may want to consider right here in the 8.40's. It is the last intraday leg in an upward wave patten. Tomorrow a downward pattern......for what it's worth.....free.
March 3, 2014 - ACI is retracing. I have Fib confluence on the daily between 4.27 and 4.32. Intraday there is TR from Feb 19th to the 24th with midline at 4.28. Looking for an afternoon bounce and then down into the buy tomorrow, Tues, March 4th.