ill pay you 22.50 considering their fair value is 25 probably. although if it hits the fan in Russia fair value will be like $16 lol
You really don't think BP is worth over $30 do you?
why? what is so appealing about this? I wouldn't touch it over $24 tbh. Actually I wouldn't buy it at all. But I fail to see the appeal over $30. Fundamentals don't support it. My guess is you're an amateur that just thinks its a leader/name and buy on any negative and its all good right? Yeah I'm right. In that case, buy Amazon at $500 also, see how you do on that in 10 years at 750 p/e.
Not really, in fact I told you to sell at $42 several months ago, but the same stupid people were pumping, what, $55 then? lol. BP's fair value equity level is probably like $70bil at best or lower. Their current equity is like $90 bil, take out the $18bil they owe plus other, take out the effect of oil around $50 or lower, subtract oil/gas asset worth less now given oil price, then factor in Russia's toxic investment.
I think you'll get a fair value of $25/$70bil market cap. I'm being generous frankly. But things take time. Maybe we'll get to $34 today who knows. Keep praying, but don't forget to dump before the next leg!
watching more out of curiosity than anything. but don't try to sucker people with visions of grandeur like oh wow BP is worth $50 yeah right LOL. Maybe before they spent like $50bil on the oil spill it was worth $50 and even that was stretching it given the lack of equity and income.
This is a textbook sucker rally like "buy buy you missed buying this #$%$ buy it at $33 instead!" yeah lets see if that holds up by 10 days from now lol.
what 'top'? the top was $40 before all heck broke loose and before it really fell at all and priced in anything (BP was like $45 when oil was $90 lol). You saying that theres upside here? How much? $7 per share at best if oil goes back to $90? Big deal. Not only that but nothing else outside of oil price has changed. It still has toxic stuff, debts not factored in and so on.
Ultimately, $33.50 will likely be a top then it may hit $27. I don't really care, it took 3 months last time for $40 to become $30, maybe it'll take another 3 months to hit $20 haha.
I don't want to buy BP, i'd rather buy another oil/gas stock if I eventually wanted one. BP's risk in Russia alone is a permanent deterrent to me.
asset values are based on higher prices given the history of oil prices, probably between $80 and $100, and will be revised here and there. That's just based on history and the timeliness its revised. The $18billion they owe government, plus many more tens of millions they owe municipalities, is not out of their equity yet and is a DEBT going forward that will be deducted from assets.
Oil price is not static, of course, that's why BP took a long time to fall from $40, because fools though it would rebound in a month lol. The $55.50 average is what I think it'll be going forward. That's based on futures, political issues, and oversupply/demand weak.
I believe BP is worth $25 fair value. Their Russia risk is unique to BP. Literally 1/3rd of all their revs/assets are in Russia, and is toxic. Going forward, the risk of losing that is tremendous.
That's jmho. Take it or leave it
IF so, you'll have even more sellings angie, considering the fundamentals. People seem to get emboldened for some odd reason when the only thing that's changed is oil isn't $38.25 anymore, its $40 today lol. The stock dropped from $36.50 to $30 and you think a bounce to $33 wasn't going to happen? You might not even get $33 IDK. Who cares. Either way its gonna be $25 soon.
I always find it really funny how everytime stocks fall on fundamentals people talk shorts. Most of the short shares outstanding are likely from option sales, and I don't view BP as a shortable stock really, there are better things to short. However, that said, If this did go to $35, lookout below after that lol. I personally think $33.25 then say goodbye next week probably $27. Or it may take several weeks more to reflect fundamentals and price them in, as it did from the most recent drop it took 2 months.
Those who do not know that their assets are based on $90 oil, $18bil owed still isn't in the books, 1/3rd of everything they own is in Russia, revs and assets, and oil is $40 lol. This is a textbook bounce. Except strength through tomorrow (probably) but a chance it could sell off from here or by tomorrow idk. Either way, sell it at $33 then be prepared for further drops ahead. JMHO.
oh and be sure to factor in that many of their oil and gas "properties" were likely valued at $80-$100 oil, thus, they are likely worth 50% less on paper right now, and that the equity level is probably overstated in real terms.
too early to know/tell. I view $25 as fair value short term for what its worth. Your due diligence should factor in the fact that 1/3rd of all their revs/assets are in toxic Russia, they still haven't paid $18bil so subtract that from equity, they owe tens of millions more to municipality lawsuits, div might get slashed at least 60%, and oil price/neg earnings perhaps.
BP is going down on fundamentals, period. When oil is $39, and assets are valued when oil was at $90, you have an overinflated assets on the balance sheet. BP is worse than RDS or CVS, it has 1/3rd of all its assets/revs in Russia. Not only that, but the $18+ bil they owe, isn't even taken out of the books yet, so subtract that, ouch. Big oil took forever to fall, so the common theme is that they trickle down then its a waterfall to play catch up. BP can bounce here to $32/$33 but will likely head down to $25 shortly.
PS The dividend is NOT safe. Why would they pay $8-$10billion per year of their cash when they have no/negative earnings. You want to see equity go down $8-$10billion per year when they have all of the above going on? The div must be slashed at least 60%, preferably 75% and I fully expect that.
problem with BP is they still owe 18+bil in the balance sheet, future projects are getting killed, oil/gas assets are worth 50% less than on book, profit is nil or negative earnings going forward, to top it off they could lose 1/3rd of assets/revs if Russia yanks back Rosneft stake. Ultimately, again, I view $25 as fair value short term, if things don't improve, $22 isn't impossible either.
2009-2015 are like the fuzzy fraud years. I can't exactly believe any of the action through the last 6 years was actually legit, it was all market makers with government funds right? What is apple worth? $40? I can't even remember anymore.
I forgot everything that happened after the government rigged stocks for 6 years. We are still at fair value at dow 7,000 right? I don't really know its too hard to find fair value when the US government rigged all the markets, who knows what anything is worth lol. Market makers own almost all the stock they had to buy.
I also been telling people relentlessly on the board to sell near $40. Those who didn't listen will probably have to ride this down to $23 to $27 now, watch it bobble around and if oil doesn't improve in like 6 months over $50, it could even sideline at $19-$21 as people still dislike Russia and envision asset values plunging eventually.
nobody is going to make money in this environment but yeah refinery is the only way, but still, the dangerous thing by far is when you have leveraged companies (which all oil is) having asset values sliced by 50% due to permanent oil price impairment. Then it makes you have negative equity, your liabilities become questioned/unserviceable perhaps, or other toxic deals have to be done and so on. Your "pipeline" gets screwed up , dividends are gone and so on.
Overall i'm extremely concerned about negative earings but mostly negative equity and Russia. If they have to do serious writedowns of values on their books in 6 months its not gonna be pretty. Throw the $18bil they owe to government and its the perfect storm here literally. Even other companies who face all this don't have the fine and Russia, only BP has those two extra things.
I don't really know what their oil/gas assets are worth now, but I guarantee you hey are not worth what the books state, and I know that's always in flux with commodity prices, but things will get super ugly if oil doesn't recover fast. Many of these companies will have bank issues, may have to raise money and do other things. Shareholders are the last in line and could face ugly things. I don't know if BP or others will encounter this as badly as some others, but who wants to buy these things only down like 30% from the highs and risk all that. Maybe if BP was $21 i'd take a gamble, but for over $30 no frikkin way. That's just my view though.