first you clowns say the fine won't be paid for 5-10 years so its irrelevant, now your jumping up and down with joy at a mere 3bil decrease when they still owe 14bil after paying 32bil LOL! idiots
Keep in mind it may be much more. One judge is not going to be the deciding factor in pricing. But for now it looks like 13.7bil, on to of the $28bil they already spent, and 4bil for pollution fines. Not very important. They still owe nearly 14bil. God help you if they lose Rosneft, wake up at $23.
4.3bil reduction. OK, not bad, but ultimately splitting hairs. So now they will lose $16bil + 1/3rd of all revs in Russia, plus 13.7bil fine. And their revs collapsed 65-70% from oil price.
You'd think oil could at least pop 5 bucks after falling $55 in 5 months. I guess things are worse is avg oil going to be $41 this year? I factored $51 lol.
After a 65% fall due to demand dying and other factors, it couldn't even hold a dead cat bounce. BP opens down $3 tomorrow on downgrade? LOL
BP 5 year price $43.50. BP current price $35.80. Down $7.70. Oil down 65%, nat gas down 65%, Russian risk of $16bil + 1/3rd of revenues disappearing overnight. Revs/profits down 65% soon at avg of $51WTI. $18bil fine due in 2017 or 2018.
All that for a $7.70 drop from its 5 year average? Yeah keep buying. When its $25 tell me how you feel, if your butt is sore. Good luck.
look just think what you want. If you think BP down $7 from its $110 oil value, with the Russian risk of $8 per share, a $7 per share fine due, and a 65-70% drop in oil and revs/profits, then buy more and shut it. Nobody except you morons on this board actually think its a good buy. When its $25, ill let you know what price I might buy.
Best case scenario for me is it prices in the oil drop over the next 2 months OR just opens down $10 and adjusts accordingly should Russia take Rosneft formally. Good luck numnuts.
Uh huh. So even though the euro is what's relevant here, the pound falls with the euro, they fall the same % numnuts.
you do realize that euro's going down is a negative for BP right? LOL. Wow I guess you didn't.
There was and is plenty of crude, actually over 120 years in Saudi Arabia alone without advanced methods. That's why oil was $20 for 20 years from 80-2002 without even blipping up. Even worse, in a slowdown or perpetual depression, demand is always weak. As Saudi Arabia said, $100 will never be reached again, it was and is an abnormality. $50 is an average price you'll see for the next 10 years. Live with it. If some rigs idle in the US, Russia, Middle East and Canadian Sands which have tiny costs will pump out. Goldman says $40 oil, but I think $50 is more realistic.
To me however, BP has its own fundamental problems. Oil spill fine and Russian confiscation means a $8 and $7 shoe to drop each respectively, alongside 1/3rd of all of BP's revs originate from the Rosneft stake which could be gone. Those are shoes to drop into perpetuity. I would always discount BP at least $8 or $9 from whatever price you establish BP is worth factoring in $51WTI avg.
When BP is ready to fall it will. It will play catch up, ignore the daily oil price, get downgrades, possibly articles linked to Rosneft, have an earnings report that warns next qtr EPS down 70% div cancelled etc. Then it will fall.
Until then, its dead money at $36, utterly worthless and overvalued. $36 is fair value if oil was $130, considering Russian risk and $18bil fine owed.
After a 4-5 month decline of 65% you'd be a moron to think oil would never bump up here or there. The issue isn't blips that last a week or an hour like we saw today, the issue is what is the average sales price of oil. So far for the first two weeks of January its around $47 I believe.
oil is gonna range from $45 to $55 for a long time probably. As soon as it hits $55 or above Iran and Venezuela and any other country are going to flood the markets desperately, including Russia lol. Likewise, it may have blips down to $35/$36 easily. Looks like $43 is the intermediate price of sales for 2015, maybe $45 if your lucky. If so, that means earnings drop by 70% for all these companies and they incur $2 per share or $3 per share losses keeping divs, or they just run on fumes (no loss or gain) if they cancel the divs.
The only way they can keep the divs and break even completely is if oil average $76WTI. Aint gonna happen this year or next.
That's okay though because BP investors like gaps down, just like the oil spill, they'll have a nice Rosneft gap down of 35% eventually. They like it though, so I think it'll be okay.
Appeals don't take 9-10 years In your fantasy land. They already lost the case. At best they'll owe it in 2017 or 2018, not in fantasy land of 2025. Take $18bil out of equity and BP has strained balance sheet it might have to raise money. It has $50bil+ in debt and more liabilities, and nothing but oil/gas assets that right now don't sell for hardly any profits, excluding dividends they lose lots of money now.
Tack on Russia, and they are in serious problems if Russia takes Rosneft, BP will plunge $10 overnight.
It surely is "bouncing" the problem is BP never really fell from its 5-year average. Investors still have no priced in the fall to $40's or $50's. They have no priced in Russia, and they barely priced in the fine, if at all. The euro weakness and div cut are just symptoms of all of the above. Worst case is that they are trading at a 29 p/e, avg oil sold is $51.50 WTI, which would be a 29 p/e at $35.50, and if Rosneft is taken, subtract $16bil in equity, and 1/3rd of revenues/profits further raising their p/e to around 40 here. Take out the $18bil fine, and maybe BP will have to raise money to pay back their debt long term.
BP is a mess. Keep buying at $36 if you wish, when it hits $25, i'll re-examine the stock's fundamentals and potential.
Oil jump of $5 or $10 is irrelevant, its the average sold over 2015. If some barrels are sold at $44 last week, and some at $56, that average $51, the estimates I posted. The current estimates are factoring in an average of $75/barrel, meaning some sold at $66 and some at $88, which isn't going to happen, obviously. Factor in a $7 loss from Rosneft writeoff which is probably, and losing 33% of all revs from rosneft and EPS gets cut by ANOTHER 1/3rd after the estimates I provide. Pay the $18bil fine and working capital is even more non-existent. Tell me again why BP should be over $25, I see zero reasons. But by all means keep buying at $36 I hope your right.
Notwithstanding the unremarkable working capital, these are the first estimates of what these things are worth at $52 wti oil. RDS p/e is 23.6 or 2x fair value. If they continued their dividend they'd break even or lose money.
estimate P/E based on consensus estimate 2015 EPS estimate - Oppenheimer P/E based on Oppenheimer’s estimate
Exon Mobil Corp. XOM, -0.29% $90.00 $5.18 17.4 $2.65 34.0
Chevron Corp. CVX, -0.29% $104.20 $6.60 15.8 $3.19 32.7
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Sponsored ADR RDS.A, -1.10% $62.98 $5.90 10.7 $2.67 23.6
BP PLC Sponsored ADR BP, -0.81% $35.96 $3.37 10.7 $1.24 29.0
ConocoPhillips COP, +0.29% $62.44 $2.96 21.1 $1.45 43.1