earnings are dropping due to various factors, that much is clear, the question is, how much exposure/risk between the oil/gas defaults, lack of any rate increases anytime soon, problematic trading revs, 200bil (25% international) exposure in UK and so on and so on.
Many articles have shown earnings are going to drop due to various factors though.
200billion, 25% of the international exposure is in the UK btw lol. They have a TON of MBS exposure, and with rates staying pat for at least another year or two, BAC should be at $9 or $10 with no upside imo. But whatever, gl, i'm not impressed by this messy bank which is like a ATM for government fines.
I always through the markets should fall to 15k dow and so on, they were overvalued to begin with. maybe this is just an excuse to do so IDK.
their margins are so small if a few revenue streams dry up they got negative earnings again. And now interest rates won't be raised in forever, probably like 1-2 years min. BoA can't withstand any recession or pullback in revs or they die almost instantly.
book value is irrelevant when you have 2.2trillion bonds, loans, stocks, and other assets that fluctuate like mad. Plus, I'm sure a ton of the "tangible" #$%$ is furniture and other things. JMHO
Yes, that's why this garbage fell from $50 to $3 in a few months. Because it's impossible to value something that is constantly fluctuating from positive book value with equity to the potential of huge negative equity. The only true solution is to either multiply equity by at least 400%+ OR to deleverage and give more business to other banks and split the risk. End of story. That's why the BAC common is just an overleveraged gambling mechanism that truly is probably worthless if liquidated
As far as I know a 5% fluctuation in assets would put them at almost a $0 tangible book. 5% of $2.15trillion = 110billion. Not to mention what does bank of america consider tangible? Worthless furniture and other intangible junk?
I mean seriously, think about it, any fluctuation of 5% of the value of their assets puts them at negative $150billion book value lol. Not to mention what if loan losses go up even a bit. Ultimately, these banks are like zombies. The only real way to be safe is to have at least 15% of equity to assets, of which they have something like what 3-4% at best? OR, deleverage to take less risk of asset fluctuations or loan losses.
This isn't anything new. nothing has really changed, the only thing that's changed is there is a floor under "Bankruptcy" due to overleverage based on I guess fed stops. But that said, a overleveraged zombie with "subjective" earnings and assets and non-subjective debts is still a zombie.
trying to find out asset quality and come up with a realistic book value lol. These banks are just over leveraged pieces of garbage. Frankly, if even 4% of assets are of worthless quality, book value is negative. And so on.
I would never buy these over leveraged bank turds on strength. BAC should range from $8 to $12 realistically as an over leveraged zombie.
look they already pumping front page yahoo "expect a rebound" lol. told ya. well its common knowledge anyway, Brexit will take 2 years to adjust anyway.
The fed prints money. That is the same thing as "taking" money from the US treasury. Instead of actually taking money in existence from the US treasury, it prints tens of trillions and launders it out to its friends and other entities.
Probably will touch 199 or 200 then rally to 206-207, swash around between 203 and 207 for a while. I bought in 202 range will dump over 205 again did it this morning actually.
I agree. Our fed has laundered trillions out of the US treasury into the elites pockets. When at a congressional hearing, they "forgot" where 2 trillion went and had no idea, etc etc. This is what they do. They steal from us, give themselves welfare because they don't want to work and have no talent, then pretend they are kings or smart.
who would stay in a corrupt administration that grew the wealth gap 100 fold in 20 years based on theft and corruption. The EU epitomizes all that is evil because the elites all over the world set it up and said oh yeah it'll help everyone, F that it just helps the elites steal.
maybe, i could always hold a few days I'm sure the sheep will return and say its an overreaction blah blah. To be totally honest, I think a selloff/profit taking is more relevant than the actual Brexit news lol
bought some AH at 202 and change. Will dump on open Monday after the scam pop towards 205.
The future estimates don't include numbers from Sirius, because Sirius alone at max production would equal something like 10% of total demand. But it just goes to show you that if prices rise, capacity will swamp the markets, thus pushing prices back down. And the obvious takeaway is that the product itself is too plentiful for a rise over $200/tonne. But time will tell won't it. My target is $8.50 or so but I could upgrade it to $11 or $12 if I see something in the future that I don't see now. Of course, I don't see anything of value yet.
Putting it in numbers
In 2013, total NPK global demand was about 183 million metric tons. Capacity exceeded demand by about 94 million metric tons. In 2018, total NPK global demand is expected to reach about 200 million metric tons. Capacity is expected to exceed that by 123 million metric tons. This may explain why the recent crop price increase may not have had the same effect on fertilizer prices.
Among the three NPK fertilizers, capacity for potash is expected to increase the fastest by 11% over the next three years, beginning in 2016. Phosphate capacity is expected to have the slowest growth of 7%. Over this period, potash demand is expected to grow the fastest by 8%, while nitrogen demand is expected to have the slowest growth of 4%, according to the FAO.
Next, we’ll dive into the bottom line trends for fertilizer companies.
nitrogen, phosphorous, and potassium ↩
The reason the Sirius mine is so talked about is because its in the UK (far away from the normal zones indicating the rapid production ability in so many other places) and it's a huge mine. Brexit will have absolutely no impact on UK business. UK breaking out of the EU has nothing to do with importers outside the EU which are the only importers China, India, N. America, Brazil and other asian small countries.
I mean it's nice to try to connect two completely unrelated things but realistically the UK exiting the EU doesn't stop business in the UK lol. If anything, it means Greece and Italy might not be "bailed out" if the EU comes apart, among other things like currency readjustments.
I'm not really an expert on Brexit or the EU in general, nor do I really care. POT, MOS and other ag stocks still remain long term train wrecks. POT has more liabilities that it could earn in 10 years even if it cancelled its entire dividend to zero it would take them 10 years to pay off their liabilities. They have no cash. Their PP&E is subject to writedowns. It has it's own major problems outside of some silly Brexit thing going on.
POT goes from 16 to 17 and back every day. That won't change the only relevant thing is probably Q2 in July and/or if or when div gets nixed I suppose.
Probably just currency related fluctuations. Outside of that I don't think Brexit has much impact to anything. The main thing is probably default concerns for certain countries in the EU if it breaks up, and other aspects. The EU was a failed idea anyway. POT has its own problems outside of Brexit.