Personally I'd never short anything because I have no faith in fair market mechanics by design, however that said, POT is not 'close to book value'. In fact, strictly speaking, book value is $8 or so, which is comprised entirely of LICENSED land assets. Further, if you argue that these assets are overvalued since the underlying commodity is worth less, you may get a $5.50/$6.00 book value.
Again, working capital is highly negative here, and they continue to distribute 100-110% of FCF/net earnings so the stock is not worth more quarter after quarter, only the holders bank accounts go up, but for a new stock holder the equity doesn't rise.
Lastly, under $200/ton would bring about negative earnings concerns. Unlikely but possible imo. Without any working capital, the div would be cancelled entirely and they'd go into debt more.
Either way, perhaps this spikes to $18.50 or something I don't know personally I wouldn't touch it over $11. So buyers best of luck, just stating my opinions.
if you think HFT is the only thing that exists as a conflict of interest and/or defrauding mechanism then that is hilarious. Actually it's like a hydra with about 50 heads, of which HFT is a single head. Market makers by design have a conflict of interest to make a profit and control/regulate stock trading as it is, lol. Thus, they employ HFT among other things to set prices. That's just one aspect.
Blah blah bottom this bottom that. Fundamentals just say this is now $2 more expensive and $7 now over fair value. That's all that says. If you wanna pay more go ahead, enjoy at $16.84 maybe this will take another several weeks to melt down further. Maybe months. Makes no diff really, we are all just discussing fundamentals. Any idiot knew that stocks that fall hard will bounce so they can redistribute and sucker more in on pops or just balance the transfer agents stock accounts. That said, the move today was the entire 2016 dividend that WONT be retained anyway lol. Its not very smart to pay a full years worth of non-retained divs based on a 24 hour move but hey, if you think its worth $17 knock yourselves out. I still say it churns a while then takes a dump
lots of goodwill after aquisition and land assets that are worth 40% less but aren't reflected yet. If $30 isn't fair value maybe $37 is then.
If you 'double down' I would do so on weakness, never on strength. Fair value is already far below current stock price by most assessments, I mean just quoting the average analysts target is $17, JP morgan is $16, stock is basically at both targets already. Not that I trust or care about these guys at all but they are likely looking at a combination of weak equity, negative working capital, lots of debt/dues coming due, and a horrible forecast they'll probably miss badly as well.
I don't know POT's rating but just quoting their lack of liquidity they should be far lower than A's. B or C is more suitable here.
A cross of $18 would be dangerous almost like a blowoff top if that ever happened imo. I always though that $14-$17 would be that churning before $14 broke. I'm not saying this thing can't go higher than I think but fundamentals certainly don't support it as we all know.
If this thing crossed $17.50 meaningfully I would actually just entirely stop watching it and check back in several weeks probably because that would indicate a lot more churning and time is needed before fair value is reached.
But my gut says $14-$17 then slowly $14 breaks and gives way to $13, $12, and inevitably $10 or $11 (probably $11.50-$12 primarily).
Either way, I suppose we'll see won't we.
awesome timefor, glad your doing well. POT seems like it wants to churn for a while, few days, weeks, whatever before the move lower. I fully expect $13 to break here soon. One glance at the books and the forecast and people eventually have to halt purchases til lower imo.
earnings are so low at this point as prices fall that lets say realistically they earn 75 cents for 2016or $500mil, quality notwithstanding. Ignoring 2017 which could be worse or better, ignoring any other costs involved in long term mining, the $500mil will be #$%$ away on divs, the stock will get weaker because there is no upside or growth anywhere based on pricing or realities and the equity will continue to be dead and illiquid. Still view $10-$11 as fair value. No doubt it will fall further in due time.
dead notwithstanding looked at their books again and they are completely and utterly illiquid. Negative working capital, debts coming due/trickling that are only secured by land and equipment, meaning they don't have any liquidity to pay any long term liabilities and assuming their ST assets are all of cash quality, they still don't meet ST liabilities. So POT remains super poor while they #$%$ away the little earnings they have left that may dwindle to break even or even negative results worst case.
Further, they have no cash or assets to take care of any capex or plans in the future so, like I told these guys, when you have a poor company run like a day laborer, you have to price in these things into the stock price. I don't find over $11 pricing any of it in.
lets just assume that 1/4th of all land assets will be written down on every oil/gas company that has yet to do so. maybe 1/3rd.
BHP Billiton writes down $7.2bn of shale assets
15 January 2016
From the section Business
"BHP Billiton has written down the value of its US shale assets by $7.2bn (£5bn) as a result of the dive in oil prices."
All the oils are around 20% overvalued imo, just due to risk, burn rate and playing catch up, BP is in a worse situation, it should be around $20 imo. XOM is also really pricey. People just have no clue what $30 or $40 oil means to the books. Probably assets of land and such are 1/3rd or more overvalued and could be written off. Equity would drop by around 30-40 billion on BP alone. The risk is too great for these things to be anywhere over their lows.
Its a crime we are still on fossil fuels actually. Or at least not 30-40% off it by now. That said, last report said something like $238 avg potash price, N. America was something like $248 or $250 and Overseas was something like $225 maybe. A safe bet would be $210 going forward this year. Throw in declines in Phosphate and Nitrogen which haven't fall much and have thin margins, and you'll probably get an overall effects of $200/ton potash if you know what I mean.
As for Saudi Arabia, they are clearly trying to force producers under to keep market share. They may also be trying to convince the world not to adopt alternatives, as oil is "cheap enough" so to speak. Not only that but lets face it, any price rise in oil and consumers as dead as they are would still cut back anything they coul, not that the cutbacks would exceed the extra profits though, but it would be a factor.
As far as I've read, Chinese reserves are bloated that's why dry bulkers are all dying. They don't need iron or or anything else its a highly cyclical thing and bouts of recession can knock many things out of business im sure.
USA will probably slow down on interest rate rises, I think they should halt them altogether. Clearly the economy is so imbalanced and fragile that they need to stand pat.
It might be a 20% stake something like that in Rosneft. I belive if my memory serves they paid 55billion or something. But and theres other ventures out there they dealt in so either way they own a ton. From my recollection analysts have said something like 33% or 1/3rd of BP's balance sheet and earnings is attributed to Rosneft.
Do your own DD to find the exact amounts
Well if you do a poll on how many people think that Russia will let BP keep its 30% stake in Rosneft, Russia's national GDP company which serves at like 60% of their GDP, you'll get about 5 out of 1000 people saying yeah, Russia will let them keep it.
On paper, BP owns 30% of Rosneft and that means that 1/3rd of all BPs assets, and earnings come directly from Rosneft.
Sure, BP is safe for now, but inevitably Russia will almost certainly yank it back under some nonsense pretext like reparations for sanctions or whatever.
Just because this may happen in 2019 or 2021 or whenever doesn't make it less painful in the end. People need to be aware that if that happens, BP would fall to single digits probably and have no upside or depending on the assets taken, may become utterly insolvent.
Let the writedowns being, add more debt to pay short term fools a div, and let their liabilities already 7x their liquidity rise further. great plan. See you at $15. Oh wait when Russia takes back Rosneft see you at $1.50 I Mean.
lol I guess when your equity is already dead, and you really don't have any money and your debts are already like 4x any liquid assets, yeah, who cares at this point, just bleed more debt and pay out the sheep fools while you basically kill your company.
he's honest just stupid I can attest to that. Clearly anyone who cant read or understand financials or implications surrounding a company, even spelled out to them in pages and pages of detail, is clearly inept or incompetent. If he's a CFO he's probably the CFO of a local Mcdonalds because you guys truly have no idea what your talking about. The only shot you have is for earnings to climb and mask the perpetually dead equity and negative working capital. Outside of that, POT will have to make tough decisions. Nix the div entirely/partially? Take out more debt? Sell some stock or other payables?
Even worse, the Canadian government will probably tax them even more soon. As I stated geniuses, POT doesn't own the mines they license them, they are at the mercy of the owners terms entirely.
I would not buy over $11, period. There is far far too much risk anywhere over that. Even $11 is a dead money, possible risk scenario imo, could fall to $6 or $7 if things get really worse although I don't bet on that likelihood.
I'll give you $15 for your shares if you promise to refund me all my money if Russia takes back Rosneft prior to 2019. Deal?
You're incredibly lucky this didn't open up at $26 an fall to $24 today, really lucky. There seems to be an constant supply of fools who can't read financials, take advantage and dump over the lows before new lows.