Mud Wrote: "For me, I could give a rats behind what the KD is.........If the data only shows .5 log KD but the s-antigen is completely gone and the liver starts to heal itself. Isnt that the point of the therapy?"
Bingo! Succinctly stated. Thanks, Mud.
End, I believe the company's fiscal third quarter ends 30 June, hence the expected conference call in early August...which has been the previously practice. My point is that prior to and AD date, we will be having a company conference call and presentation in early August that will likely announce additional info. The AD is down the road, and at this time I am much more interested in that CC which is coming much sooner.
Henry, have they announced a date for AD? If they have, please inform all of us. I don't think they have, and I am rather curious how they can delay a date they have haven't yet announced.
While a good deal of focus on this board has been speculation on the presentation at the AD, it should not be forgotten that ARWR will have their fiscal 3rd quarter corporate CC sometime in early August. I was reminded of this by another member's recent post. We will certainly have the opportunity to hear additional research milestone announcements and well as an updated summary of their financial outlook. It may give us a better understanding of what we should be looking for in regards to their Liver Summit.
Rdog Wrote: "Hmmn. Not really sure how to take that at this point."
I'd probably take it to mean that at this point in time he isn't going to offer anything prior to their liver summit.
End Wrote: "In the eyes of the market and big pharma, ARWR still is a dark horse"
End, on this point, I will disagree with you. I think the results ARWR posted last October got everyone's attention in a hurry. Of course, the market deadpanned it, however I think the research community and any pharma corp. associated with liver disease, etc. immediately sat up in their chairs and took notice. What ARWR had accomplished was truly remarkable. In addition, don't forget that NVS in all likelihood had a good, subject to non-disclosure look at was going on in ARWR's stable....especially with those chimps.
If I was to throw a dart at the board, I would WAG a research and marketing agreement is announced at the 'Liver Summit' aka 'Analyst Day' or 'AD".
In addition, IF this was to occur, I would expect the short interest in ARWR to immediately disappear and the share price to rise commensurately
On the contrary, what I suspect is more likely to occur is a research and marketing agreement with an established, well healed pharma corp. ARWR receives extensive, ongoing research funds in exchange for milestones and a percentage of profits for future drug sales. The manufacturing, sales and distribution of drugs goes under the umbrella of the pharma corp. I suspect (but have absolutely no proof) there have been suitors for this kind of deal. ARWR retains its independence with future financial benefits and security.
It is indeed an unfair characterization. Regulatory agencies in many, if not most countries are in contact and have agreements with FDA with regards to safety and other issues. It is also sometimes cheaper to conduct these trials in other countries, as well as having a larger pool of subjects.
And GILD has a heck of a pile of spare change sitting around that they really should deploy. Did I mention they are in the liver business too...?
Long ARWR and GILD
End 2, Good Luck. I too am sorry to see you depart, however I understand everyone has their own limits of tolerance when it comes to risk. I hope you do well I the future.
Cribber Wrote: "This is about making money and that is it!"
No, it isn't. It is about finding a cure or management of HBV in patients that allows them to lead completely full and active lives.
Ram, I think this isn't about Dr. A and Dr. G peddling their research to the analysts. These guys are research scientists. This event is about them presenting to their peers...of whom, I suspect they have much more respect. I think there is little doubt they have made impressive discoveries, and those chimps were the basis of those discoveries. I'd look to three weeks to thirty days prior to an estimated date for an announcement of location and date. They want their peers to come...and they will. While their Oct 2014 presentation was panned by the market, the world of liver research instantly laser focused on what ARWR had accomplished. It was stunning, and importantly, it was not rejected by peer review.
HP Wrote: " Management has now, literally, thrown down the glove and made a stand.."
I think what they have announced has put their professional reputations on the line. That takes a tremendous amount of personal courage and confidence in your research. They likely may have felt that they had been backed into a corner after the 08 Oct shorting, downgrades and shareholder lawsuit. Their proposed 'liver summit' (aka analyst day) is their means to clear the room of any ongoing or future impediments.
I rather like the irony of the 'analyst day' being potentially scheduled for October. Seems fitting.
I still don't think these folks are going to end up marketing their research. At some point (very near future, I suspect) they will announce a research and marketing agreement that will be exceptionally beneficial to ARWR. At that time the short interest will completely go down in flames and any hostile takeover discussions will disappear.
I too see a 6% opportunity that ARWR of ARC-520 commercialization BY ARROWHEAD. I do highly suspect they will partner with another well heeled company in a research and marketing agreement who will end up marketing the products of ARWR's research. As Mud pointed out, ARWR is a bio clinical research company. My bet is on GILD.
Oni Wrote: "a research and marketing agreement which would provide a large financial resource to ARWR"
Some might think that choice would be Norvartis based on recent activity, however I think it'll be GILD.
"So the scenario will be upward movement to over 10-12, or the other way. If ARWR is correct, the shorts will leave soon, but under their terms, if not the Short Interest will rise. JMO"
PT, I think you are correct. The large short interest will keep a lid on the pot. What seems likely to be a catalyst for an increase in share price and the short interest to be significantly diminished is a research and marketing agreement which would provide a large financial resource to ARWR. Frankly, I am expecting
it soon. I have no evidence this will occur, however it I think short interest would pretty much disappear.
I'll reiterate just in case anyone missed it:
Dr. Givens quite clearly stated that the recipe for serio-clearance is still an unknown.
Read it! Learn it! Live it!