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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

only_one_cannoli 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 19, 2014 6:30 PM Member since: Sep 5, 2010
  • Reply to

    AMBS' #C4CT Hosting Duties....Ugh!!

    by riskreturn168 Jul 18, 2014 10:47 AM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Jul 19, 2014 6:30 PM Flag

    rr, I think what you described is a possible outcome, maybe the most likely one, I dunno. I agree that .20 sure seems inevitable. We'll get there, maybe more patience required though. Under .10 does seem less likely now. But the .115 to .125 range seems possible to me (hope so, I'll grab more).

    I'm not expecting huge revenue guidance in August since publicly GC has been conservative/cautious so far re: lympro's potential, and why change that now. I'm not sure they're going to announce the *optimized* lympro results at C4CT which is what the market is waiting for and we were promised a partnership by end of summer which is Sept. 21. That'll be a big deal when it happens, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of the new comers and a lot of the momentum traders bailed after rev. guidance. since "end of summer" is a less concrete catalyst to trade around than AAIC or C4CT which both have firms dates attached.

    It seems to me that GC's lympro focus really has been on the science just as he has told us and that mgmt has been very methodical so far about releasing lympro data in such a way that builds confidence with KOL and shows the world that little ambs has a serious scientific team and is not just trying to rush a half-baked alz. test to market.

    Btw, the enthusiasm police on these MBs give you too a hard time, imo. I think you have your emotional ups and downs like the rest of us and I've never minded that, fwiw, I've enjoyed reading your posts here. It's the handful of disingenuous mb commenters that I find a little annoying.

  • Reply to

    AMBS' #C4CT Hosting Duties....Ugh!!

    by riskreturn168 Jul 18, 2014 10:47 AM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Jul 19, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    I think expectations may be too high for the type of lympro news expected at C4CT. And we could see pps pull back after a run-up to the eom lympro update.

    bballgm, in another thread you said "Wait until they have all of their improvements included, and a optimized model....and they will run it again. This should be the top line data they will be presenting at C4CT (at least that's what I'm gathering)."

    How do we know they won't be reporting more raw data vs. optimized? Mgmt. seems to be proceeding very carefully, taking this one step at a time, winning over scientists who may have been skeptical about lympro and meanwhile we all want to jump ahead to the final optimized results, it seems to me.

    I may be completely wrong. Fwiw, I have no intention of selling anytime soon and am trying to gauge when to add a bit more.

  • Reply to

    Gerald's Blog Needs Layman's Terms

    by riskreturn168 Jul 17, 2014 3:09 PM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Jul 18, 2014 1:15 AM Flag

    bballgm & berry - thanks for sharing your thoughts, that was helpful.

    Re: "optimization and design of experiment" (another new phrase for me) -- I assume the modeling/optimizing process is involved and math-intensive and I wouldn't expect that phase to happen until after July 31st for any of these tests (?)

    Any thoughts on how much improvement is to be expected (a range maybe) over that raw data which showed 78% accuracy? With tests like these, in general, is there an average improvement in accuracy to be expected via modeling or optimization -- say +10 to +20% accuracy improvement provided that the underlying science is sound which I believe lympro has shown? Or is it that every test is unique?

    Hoping I get the chance to add a bit the next 2 weeks. Thank you.

  • only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Jun 6, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    Hi, you're that overbearing moderator from iflub and now you've come over to yahoo to repeat your same tired old message. Forgive me for questioning your agenda.

    What's the point of diagnosing any disease where there are only treatments for the symptoms but no cure?

    If I was diagnosed with AZ using a simple blood test. I would probably be eager to start treatment with any of the currently approved drugs for AZ symptoms:

    Drug name Brand name Approved For FDA Approved
    1. donepezil Aricept All stages 1996
    2. galantamine Razadyne Mild to moderate 2001
    3. memantine Namenda Moderate to severe 2003
    4. rivastigmine Exelon Mild to moderate 2000
    5. tacrine Cognex Mild to moderate 1993
    Source: Alz d-o-t or g

  • only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli May 12, 2014 4:57 AM Flag

    May options expire this Saturday and the unlucky options traders who bet against Pozen are looking at a losing trade right now. Gee, I hope that's not our very own investor71 or f0rbes13 aka stock_matusow aka turboresearch holding onto those 687 May 8 Puts, 319 May 7s and 735 May 6s purchased on April 29 after Pozen received its CRL. Time's running out on that trade.

  • Reply to

    Can't wait for R/S....

    by lyondell.heisenberg May 4, 2014 10:46 AM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli May 4, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Your posts remind me of Eeyore the Winnie the Pooh character. You two have the same 'nothing-good-ever-happens' philosophy but I suspect Eeyore never had an agenda that involved accumulating more AMBS shares. Some grumpy Eeyore-isms:
    “It’s all for naught.”
    “Wish I could say yes, but I can’t.”
    “Days. Weeks. Months. Who knows?”
    “If it is a good morning, which I doubt.”
    “It’s not much of a tail, but I’m sort of attached to it.”
    “It’s an awful nice tail, Kanga. Much nicer than the rest of me.”
    “Sure is a cheerful color. Guess I’ll have to get used to it.”
    "After all, one can't complain. I have my friends. Somebody spoke to me only yesterday. And was it last week or the week before that Rabbit bumped into me and said 'Bother!'."

  • Reply to

    LymPro White Paper Competitor Question

    by bballgm May 1, 2014 3:01 AM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli May 3, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Zoom + bballgm -- impressive digging on your part.

    It looks like Lakewood Capital Management referred to the same test data that Zoom describes in their call to short Opko stock in December 2013.

    From "Opko Health: The Placebo Effect" re: the Alzheimer test:

    "As it turns out, the Alzheimer's test has not proven to be as good as the initial study (which was based on just six Alzheimer's patients in advanced stages of the disease). Today, Opko appears to have moved on, downplaying the test's significance and making just a brief mention of it at the back of recent investor presentations. The Jefferies analyst had assigned $3 per share ($1 billion at the time) to this business just last year. Today, it has been removed from her net asset value calculations given the test's apparent failure."

    I love that that last sentence regarding the value of the test.

  • Reply to

    Thanks all 10Mil Milestone reached

    by cloveless0976 May 1, 2014 3:47 PM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli May 1, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    I searched the internet once and it wasn't what it seemed. ;-)

  • only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 30, 2014 12:48 AM Flag

    you actually think PA is worth zero? Wow. :-) Now you just have to convince the market of that.

  • only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 29, 2014 9:48 PM Flag

    cigarking, while I'm prepared to learn from more experienced investors I think you and investor71 are ignoring the importance of increasing Vimovo sales which will be announced May 9. And I think you're ignoring the market's perception of risk re: FDA rejection. If the market was being rational prior to last Friday then it factored in a higher risk of FDA rejection for PA. It's now clear that the risk of rejection is significantly lower despite this temporary set back unless you believe management lied about the nature of the CRL on Friday in which case why would you be an investor in this stock.

    If we see 5 i'll consider that a gift and will be buying, but it would be completely irrational for the stock to sell off to that level, imo.

  • Reply to

    Had to look up term **

    by bothshallrow Apr 29, 2014 6:52 PM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 29, 2014 8:59 PM Flag

    "merge" instead of reverse-merge

  • Reply to

    Had to look up term **

    by bothshallrow Apr 29, 2014 6:52 PM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 29, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    Interesting. If I read that correctly, risk, you're saying they could choose to split into 2 companies then uplist the diagnostic company leaving the therapeutics on OTC for now then uplist the therapeutics co. later on.

    I wonder, could they split the two divisions soon, uplist diagnostics and reverse-merge the 2 companies later after diagnostics is already on Nasdaq? Maybe a convenient way to get therapeutics uplisted when it is ready. The business stuff is really beyond me, it is certainly GC's expertise though. Fascinating to speculate what might be.

  • Reply to

    Had to look up term **

    by bothshallrow Apr 29, 2014 6:52 PM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 29, 2014 8:10 PM Flag

    It seems to me that Jason Napodano wrote that management's long-term goal was to spin off the diagnostics division and shareholders could end up owning stock in 2 companies. I assumed that's why Amarantus is structured as a holding company.

    I looked it up. Napodano's March 11 2013, "Valuing Amarantus -- Where Financial Reality Meets Scientific Hope":

    "In February 2013, the company announced it planned to form a subsidiary and license the diagnostic intellectual property, which includes the LymPro Alzheimer's disease blood test and the NuroPro diagnostic platform and Parkinson's disease blood test. The new business will be called Amarantus Diagnostics. In time, we expect Amarantus Bioscience to spin off Amarantus Diagnostics to shareholders; but that is the basis for yet another article."

  • Management will have a PA update on May 8 and, for all we know, it’s a 2-3 month fix to reach approval plus Vimovo sales are rumored to be “through the roof." With updates on both drugs expected soon shorts can’t afford to wait much longer to cover.

    The garbagey hit piece on SA was part of someone’s Dump and Dump campaign, imo. Stock Matusow shorted Pozen and he’s been trashing the company ever since on SA, twitter and most likely on this MB as investor71 (hi!).

    Matusow admits that he’s not an anlalyst (as if anyone reading that opinion piece would have any doubts). And he didn't contact the CEO (which I would expect from an actual analyst) prior to submitting the SA article (which he was paid for).

    Short sellers continue to try to instill fear by dropping the stock price in low volume pre-market and after-market trading. This morning, some seller(s) sold about 900 shares in pre-market trading to drop pps 8.13 to 7.95. Same thing happened yesterday morning but pps has recovered both days - there’s nothing wrong with this stock.

  • only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 29, 2014 1:19 AM Flag

    are you Stock Matusow?

  • Reply to

    Here it goes...back down to $2 bucks..

    by denmarkski Apr 28, 2014 3:25 PM
    only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 28, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    Please tell us at what point was trading halted in Pozen for one hour today?;range=1d

  • only_one_cannoli only_one_cannoli Apr 28, 2014 3:59 PM Flag

    Another garbage article on SA. Not worth discussing.

    On another note, Vimovo continues to impress. From twitter:

    Jason Napodano, CFA ‏@JNapodano 15m
    FYI - Hearing that $HZNP will "blow the doors" off consensus Vimovo numbers. $POZN gets 10% royalty. Still checking Rx # vs. consensus.

23.485-0.025(-0.11%)12:01 PMEDT

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