yes...if the their income is reduced I'd expect them to target the timing to just long enough before patent expiration to get everyone switched over
They need to be careful. I'm sure they want companies to buy the rights to individual analogs. Won't be long before those companies insist on the full family of analogs that CNCE might develop. That being said, there's nothing from stopping a different company from developing a different analog as a competitor thereby potentially reducing the value of the CNCE deals. Methinks there will be much to fight out related to the intellectual property rights for deuterated analogs.
sounds plausible...though this really depends on how much they'd pay CNCE in royalties, how much better the 2nd generation deuterated drug is compared to the original, and the patent shelf life of each. Do you know those factors?
I'd think they may or may not be in a hurry but would eventually welcome an improved product with longer patent life.
Nice data related to TBI seizures and associated inflammation.
More importantly...I knew they had this compound and that it was targeted to seizures and pain however I didn't realize it was a different dextromethorphan analog. From the study publication:
"As mentioned earlier in the introduction, C-10068 shares similar pharmacological functions of DM as an NMDA receptor antagonist, a voltage-gated calcium channel antagonist, as well as a sigma-1 receptor ligand. All of these properties are likely to contribute to its anti-seizure properties. While deuterium modification
improves metabolic stability of C-10068, it does not alter its pharmacological function and also avoid being converted to DX"
Sure they'll develop it for other reasons for now. However, there's no reason this won't be a direct avp-786 competitor at some point. Very interesting development and Otsuka may be forced at some point to buy the rights or buy the company! Along the same lines, the VA is currently using Nuedexta for TBI patients for their associated PBA. The anti-seizure effects of Nuedexta are certainly worth them looking at.
You are quoting the Reuters number (I think, or at least a source that has the same data). Yahoo still lists 32% but they note their source as Reuters. In line with your observation, it seems that since Yahoo last updated there's been a big jump.
Not a significant one until all the offering shares are gone. Can't sustain much higher when there are shares out there on sale for 15.15
I thought I was pretty neutral in my response...sorry if it's lower than what you were going to sell at!
Wild guess*?....I'll say it touches $15.03 at some point and returns above $16 in less than 2 weeks after the offering starts.
*Entertainment purposes only
The shortened pathway seems to be a double-edged sword. I'm still unclear as to how the IP issues would sort out if they were to sort out if they go without VTRX as a partner. The legal fight would certainly include how CNCE used VTRX's data and therefore the compounds are entangled in terms of what is new and what is VTRX's.
$12.50 would be extraordinarily low without news IMO. I'd think the pricing's minimum would be at the 50-day MA (~$14). The 50 day MA would not fully incorporate the recent uptrend (more importantly, the reasons behind it).. Was the move anticipation of a buyout?...if so then we could see less than $14 as the offering signals lack of an imminent buyout. If the reasons for the uptrend are fundamentals/prospects then we shouldn't go below $15 IMO. Going to be interesting.
Its a good quandary to have. Personally I'm just holding and I do think there is additional upside so I'm comfortable doing so. That being said, I have the added impetus that my remaining shares are in taxable accounts so I need to wait until July-September before I'll be in a long term trade.
More importantly, why the big moves? I have to think there's news out there that someone is getting and we just happen to be on the correct side of the news. Hope we hear something soon, I hate being the last to know. I tried to call IR twice and got VM each time. No call back as of yet and its been about a week. Has anyone else tried?
The 3 main questions I was going to ask were:
1. Any updates on the 786 agitation study? Know when AVNR will meet with the FDA? When can we expect to hear the outcome?
2. Why the D20 export to Switzerland? Why so much?
3. What's the plan/expectation on Ivacaftor's partnering. Would they go without Vertex and if so do they expect a patent challenge? How do they expect to fare in that?
Anyone have more good questions for them? If anyone gets through and can ask I'm sure all would be appreciative.
Some pretty impressive immune-related therapy for GBM being done at Duke using a CMV vaccine along with a tetanus one (the latter to boost the immune response, the former to attack the tumor). May impact that area of CTRX's plans.
10% move today on no news. Clearly the only possible conclusion is that the Baker Brothers are reading my Yahoo posts ;)
Felix, Julian...I'm available for a price
From the Q4 earnings CC:
We believe we have the ability to efficiently develop a novel, potentially disease-modifying agent for cystic fibrosis patients that safe and well-tolerated.
Sounds to me like they are going alone and plan to present it as a novel compound. Their patents are, in general, composition of matter so they are on good footing. I won't claim its clear cut either way but as they progress there will be tremendous pressure on Vertex to cut a partnership deal because if they were to fight the patent and lose then CNCE would eat their lunch with a better product. The further CNCE gets the better the terms they can demand IMO.
JTL...thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I look at CNCE as follows
1. AVP786 for agitation – If approved this is well in excess of a $billion/year drug. At ~8% royalty that means over $80M/year. Call it $50M/year profit, a 65% chance of approval, and PE of 20 puts the pps at $35.50 for this indication alone. Discount it more for being 3-4 years out and the present value is still well above the current pps on this indication alone. I do NOT think this is priced in and if the FDA indicates they will let AVP786 proceed as AVNR had planned….this FLIES based on the above metrics. BTW, the 65% chance of approval comes from one of the analysts that had been following AVNR not from me. They also remarked on how extraordinary it was to have a “de-risked” Alzheimer’s treatment.
2. AVP786 for depression – we will have catalyst for depression when the private Nuedexta-for-depression results are made known (this summer if on schedule). Depression treatments via the NMDA receptor are the next big wave in psychiatry imo. Some may not realize but Nuedexta showed a significant effect relative to placebo on the depression scale used in the agitation trial. What’s particularly impressive about that is that it was not selected to be a depressed population! Many variables going into likelihood of success, emerging competition, and timing of approval but I look at this as 40-60% of the value for agitation
3. All the rest – 499, 354, jzp-386. ctp-730, ivacaftor, others…value greater than 0
4. AVP786 for LID, pain, PBA, and more…value greater than 0
5. Future compounds and platform…value greater than 0
I got into CNCE the day that AVNR announced their agitation results because I felt that CNCE had missed the boat on showing that connection to investors. As a result, I don’t feel the “non-participation” aspect in the biotech run. Even if they missed it, the flip side to your reaction is “maybe that leaves them undervalued relative to the rest of the sector”
I had the number up and was going to try to call today...but work enveloped me and I never got the chance. If anyone does talk to IR please share. As was noted this is public information and they have to have a public explanation of some sort. I guess even saying they can't comment has some important implications.
Multiple relevant abstracts from that meeting completed over the weekend...both from VSAR and Opko. The Opko ones are listed as from Ascendis Pharma. ASND was a recent IPO and their website has no reference to OPKO or a PFE deal. Rights for the GH product listed as ASND's alone on their website (under the pipeline synopsis - maybe there is more detail to be had). Opko has a press release referring to their data and listing the abstracts given by Ascendis. Opko is listed on those abstracts as well at the bottom. I haven't had time to sort this out or look at the data comparisons in detail...but if anyone can make sense of the Opko/PFE/ASND triangle I'd love to hear about it.