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Aruba Networks, Inc. Message Board

opalockamishabob 57 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 3, 2015 12:48 AM Member since: Sep 11, 2009
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  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Aug 3, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    "NUAN hasn't been able to breakout above the previous $18.20
    top set in June and RSI is approaching overbought levels"

    That's true, but if you had read my cogent posts in that regard, you would have understood that this is a very desirable characteristic in "the handle" part of the pattern. Secondly, a stock can remain "oversold" for a long time and still rise in price. Stockcharts has the RSI in the 60's. I don't consider any stock overbought until it gets into the 80's. That's 30% from here.

    "...not to mention trading $2 above the 100-day moving average which is
    where quite a few stocks in the market have recently retreated."

    NUAN is a very interesting stock, isn't it?

    "short-interest of only 3% doesn't suggest a strong squeeze
    candidate..."

    Don't take much notice of short selling.

    "so with the market sentiment seeming to punish
    even those than beat revenues and eps... what''s your prediction
    for how NUAN will respond to earnings -IF- Ricci doesn't deliver
    a knockout surprise (e.g. big high-margin contract) ?"

    I don't make predictions, I intrepret what I see in the chart then post my impressions here.

    Volume is beginning to INcrease, albeit slowly; from last week's "1.3" to this past Friday's "1.4".

    Current earning estimate revisions are pointing UP. One percent more institutions own NUAN

    "is this stock a BUY, SELL, or HOLD before earnings ?"

    If I were younger and knew what I know now, sure, I'd buy more on the evidence I see. Can I be wrong? Of course, but everything I see technically, seems to indicate a market "predicting" a positive report.

    What's your "opinion", peso? Step out on this limb with me, if you dare...

  • Reply to

    NUAN Volume...

    by opalockamishabob Jul 28, 2015 5:00 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Aug 2, 2015 10:58 PM Flag

    "what does your crystal ball say about the double-top formation ?"

    Curious that you chose to infer a dubious validity of technical analysis with your "crystal ball" analogy, only to conveniently utilize t/a, via the "double top" reference---in the same breath.

    The remainder of your post, you've apparently written the satisfactory answer you sought to your own question.

    So, is it technical analysis you have a problem with...or is it me? Either way, it's O.K.

  • Reply to

    IBD keeps pushing GTN @ $16.65

    by carolyn_novice Jul 30, 2015 2:44 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 30, 2015 7:43 PM Flag

    carolyn_novice...

    You are laboring under a severe misapprehension, regarding your subject line, "IBD keeps pushing GTN...", which you and "chedd40" should be disabused of quickly

    I have been a subscriber since 1986; in all those years I have yet to read anywhere in the paper or the website, that a stock was "pushed", "boosted" or recommended as a "buy".

    IBD is a subscribed to "data base service"...it is NOT an "advisory service", like Value-Line or Vector-Vest!...there is a very big difference between the two. You should know that.

    As a prioritized data base, stocks are chosen "best to worse" by way of FIVE, very specific criteria:

    Earnings Per Share
    Relative Strength
    Industry Group R/S
    Sales+Profit Margins+ROE
    Accumulation/Distribution.

    You receive NONE of these tecnhnical indicators from an "advisory service"...only from I.B.D.

    If you have any more questions, I'll be around.

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 28, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    Two of the past three trading dasy, NUAN has been closing into buys...

    On the 23rd, 203,000 in the last 5 minutes; on the 24th 385,000 in the last 25 minutes and today, 243,000 shares traded, all on upticks in the last 15 minutes of trading. I don't feel that the cup and handle pattern is still valid; if it were going to breakout, it should have done so already...the 22nd notwithstanding.

    So, another base? Looks likely, but although volume is still on the light side since the $16.39 low of July 7th and 8th...which the "1.3" up vs down volume indicator confirms, NUAN is still being accumulated...albeit not to the degree as was evident in May and June.

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 20, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    This snip comes from Ken Polcari's blog; he is the VP of NYSE floor ops for O'Neil Securities, parent company of I.B.D. Very sharp guy.

    "Ruth Porat?

    Do you know the name? Well, if you did not on Friday morning - you do now......She is the CFO at Google NASDAQ:GOOGL - in her prior life she was 'the most powerful woman on Wall St.' , - she was CFO and Executive VP at Morgan Stanley, has a stellar resume including - Stanford, London School of Economics and Wharton.....and on Friday - she was the star of the earnings show!

    Google crushes it and the net effect: Nasdaq was a huge outperformer for the week, breaking out to new highs and setting a record for the biggest one-day market cap gain in all of U.S. market history...gaining $65 billion in value after Porat told the story.

    What investors have been looking for, and what has caused Google's stock price for the past year to do basically nothing - (stuck in the $400/$600 range for 12 months), was concern about the out of control hiring and spending that were killing the bottom line.

    And so - she fixed that.....by introducing the concept of 'expense control'. Investors and traders celebrated....unable to satisfy their hunger taking the stock higher and higher - causing it to break out to new highs...."

    She fixed what was wrong...out-of-control spending, fiscal restraint...what a concept!

    How would she [or someone like her] look as NUAN's C.E.O.? More importantly, what would NUAN look like...price-wise too?

    ...wonder what Ricci does to occupy his mind & time [when he shows], up in his Ivory Tower each day? Clearly, it's not to right the wrongs...

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 17, 2015 9:20 PM Flag

    Page A-2

    "Shares of the TV station owner/operator rose 1% Fri. after RBC Capital Markets initiated coverage with an outperform rating and 20 price target. Gray Television GTN   has completed 13 mostly small-station purchases over the past 18 months, with a combined value of almost $600 mil. RBC analyst Leo Kulp told IBD, “There are plenty of opportunities for them to do M&A.” Gray Television, an IBD 50 list stock that has a best-possible 99 IBD Composite Rating, closed up for a 7th session in a row."

    I'd be careful in here; if you haven't added to your position I'd wait for a pullback. Reason?

    Look at this week's volume...these are blow-off numbers. The last time the weekly volume was at these levels it was mid-July, 2013 [into August], when GTN lost 33%. GTN is a thinly-traded stock with a daily volume of under 900,000 shares.

    Have a great weekend!

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 17, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    Up $.18 or 1.07% on 5,220,000 shares or 54% below normal trading volume. But, remember, this is "the handle" part of the pattern; it is in the pocess of [hopefully] turning to the upside. perhaps a few more weeks in that effort, but the stock should be seeing some increase in volume soon, if the complete pattern is going to fullfill itself. Low volume in the handle is just what is necessary.

    Some handles in recent stocks {GTN for one] have lasted 8 weeks before breaking out...it takes as long as it takes; 8 weeks makes the handle a bit long-in-the-tooth, but if you are a shareholder of GTN, you saw what could occur from that January to March, 2015 handle. Now, I'm not saying that GTN and NUAN are the same, but handles and chart patterns usually---not always, but usually perform routinely equal.

    If we use the GTN example, NUAN has another 4 weeks, maybe. We'll have to wait and see how it works out.

    If the handle does fail, NUAN has support in the $16.30 area, worse case.

    Have a wonderful weekend!

  • Reply to

    Amazon Echo

    by willtori Jul 16, 2015 7:30 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 17, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    "Ricci is too shy for an interview."

    We need but peruse the vast history [since 2012, at least] of his CC's to discover that Ricci is a contemptable and arrougant swine. His 5 minutes CC's are notorious, as is his lack luster and monotone delivery.

    Hope I'm not out of line...

  • Reply to

    Facebook Moneypenny Assistant

    by pesotrader Jul 15, 2015 11:56 AM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 15, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    "If they got Fabebook, NUAN could pop."

    How would we ever learn...if?

  • Reply to

    A Little Color

    by uselessineustis Jul 13, 2015 2:00 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 13, 2015 9:01 PM Flag

    Dear friend use...

    Every shareholder should be skeptical and critical of those who are the "caretakers" of their investment capital in a given investment...and to hold THEM accountable. Somehow, the practice has gotten away from the purpose.

    The BOD are the overseers AND [ostensibly!] the protectors of all of the shareholders asserts in the company; to ensure a "decent return" on those monies to be shared by all. That's supposedly their job...not sleeping with the CEO. Yet, the BOD have always shown a disgraceful and willfull disregard for anything regarding shareholders interest.

    Everyone has their own idea on what is ocuring behind the curtain...frankly, I've never understood what the hell CI's reticence is base upon. As a shareholder in EBAY, NFLX, AAPL, et.al, or his feud with Ackman, CI was never at a loss for words to condemn nor explain in depth/length, to an obsequious Scott Wapner, his disregard for Ackman or his investment strategy in the above mentioned stocks or in any other subject!

    If you wanted to know the latest on these companies or world politics, just call him up; tell CI that CNBC has a 30 minute window of empty space they'd like to fill...are you interested?

    Yet, ever since his first investment in NUAN, it has never been explained to my satisfaction as to why this small and relatively [considering his other investments] "insignificant" company [NUAN], the man for whom the term "bragadoshia" was coined, has suddenly lost his enchantment with the limelight?? I've never heard him mention with any degree of definition, "NUAN" and "management" in the same breath in any interview, video or print.

    Have you?

    In closing, with earnings disclosure not far away, we'll soon learn just how authentic the April pop was...

  • Reply to

    DARK CLOUD

    by seeking_gem_of_a_guy Jul 6, 2015 8:49 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 9, 2015 10:39 PM Flag

    A bit more on the cup and handle pattern that is forming...in particular, the handle itself.

    In a traditional bull market [unsure as to the market we are currently in] the handle is usually contained within an 8% to 12% window. Highest point to the lowest. Currently, the handle is at a 10.78% deviation. Most of the handles which form under the 50 day do have a lower success rate; this week will conclude as the first week under the moving average. We'll just have to watch and see.

    I can't say that I see a lot of blue sky through the next several days into next week, but if the clouds do part, they should provide the necessary impetus for the handle to begin rising upward...albeit slowly. When NUAN arrives at $18.27 [the point at which NUAN began its decline August 14, 2014] the volume should dramatically rise...a minimum of 40% above daily norm.

    A lot to ask? Yes, it is.

    ...but NUAN has unfolded satisfactorily since late April, hasn't it? Hasn't disappointed many of those longs on the board since then...has it?

    Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

  • Reply to

    DARK CLOUD

    by seeking_gem_of_a_guy Jul 6, 2015 8:49 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 7, 2015 6:19 PM Flag

    peso, I agree with wthat you've posted so far. I have not owned ADR securities, other than those in mutual funds. Many of these companies leave much to be desired, insofar as their accounting skills are concerned. After a selloff in which shares lost nearly a quarter of their value, China’s government has stepped in to lend money to those who want to buy stocks.

    Now, what can possibly go wrong with that, one wonders.

    The Shanghai index and its investors have lost more than $2.5 trillion dollars in value during the selloff.

    No, with all the negatives you've listed in your last two posts, regarding the U.S. markets, I feel a lot more confident investing on this side of the Pacific Ocean.

    RE: NUAN. Today was a nice snap back; volume was lacking somewhat, but I still stand by my earlier posts.

    Look forward to your posts, peso....

  • Reply to

    DARK CLOUD

    by seeking_gem_of_a_guy Jul 6, 2015 8:49 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 7, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    "10+ years ago you could have played your cup-n-handle pattern on this stock, but with massive ETF trading, heavy options betting, and manipulative shorting today you cannot disregard the overall market sentiment."

    Your points are well taken; I'd ask how long you've been a trader/investor, but it's not germain to the posts here, but I'm sure I've got a couple of years on you.

    My take? The cup and handle pattern is one of the most frequent patterns leading to a breakout of a stock. There are permutations, just as there are in all types of securities investing. I'll not go into those here.

    In short, I have read books authored and followed the advise of Benjamin Graham, Nicolas Darvas, and Jack Dreyfus to name a few. All have served me very well indeed...particularly in the 1972 and 1987 bear markets. Market trepedations, such as we are currently experiencing, were in force when these gentlemen were investors

    Current world conditions, fears and attitudes notwithstanding, I've found that [with few exceptions], very little has changed in the mind of the average investor/trader, institutional or otherwise Avarise and fear prevail in the hearts of most.

  • Reply to

    DARK CLOUD

    by seeking_gem_of_a_guy Jul 6, 2015 8:49 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 6, 2015 10:12 PM Flag

    You know, as I look at a chart, I don't see clouds. This stock is reflecting the type of action a "cup and handle" pattern is supposed to experience; for any chartists on the board, this pattern began just a bit less than a year ago...on July 30th, 2014. Follow me on this...

    Make note: just as NUAN closed under the 50 day M/A today, the money flow went sideways. This could very well prove to be the "bottom of the handle" Then begin an upswing, but nothing dramatic. Too much volume here would most likely be construed as a negative. Will the handle continue? We'll have to wait and see, but the chart I'm viewing currently shows everything pointing in that direction...particularly on a weekly chart.

    It's obvious too that volume is drying up right in here; this is where the pattern generally shakes out the weak holders. The handle can take three weeks or more to come to fruition. NUAN is still some weeks away yet.

    I have seen "perfect" cup and handle patterns crash right on the last day. However, the consistant low volume that has been evident in NUAN's chart does not indicate that this is a concern. Time will tell...

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 4, 2015 1:11 PM Flag

    "Analysts have said that M&A activity in the healthcare sector had been waiting for last week's Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare, which upheld key subsidies that underpin the reform and thus gave more certainty to healthcare insurers."

    Would NUAN's h/c division offer any potential M&A a reason to consider NUAN as a "diamond in the rough"? I'm speaking of Ricci now...

    http://www.nuance.com/for-business/by-industry/healthcare/index.htm

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 2, 2015 11:33 AM Flag

    Today volume [at 11:33 A.M. Eastern time] is at 250,000 shares. Looks like May's support line halted the decline right where it should. So, does NUAN built a base here, go higher or lower? My guess? It will base...so if you are thinking of adding to your position, this might be a good place to grab a few shares at these prices.

    I would NOT buy with 100% of my available capital. Buy some here, if you are inclinded to do so and then wait for a 2% increase. Should that occur, buy more there---then wait for another 2% or 3% increase...etc

    Repeat insofar as your cash holds out.

    I'll be away tomorrow so please, everyone, have a wonderful and safe Fourth of July. Please keep our brave young men and women in Afghanistan in your thoughts and prayers this holiday. Thank you!

  • Reply to

    Whats the problem ?

    by lvchgo5 Jul 1, 2015 1:41 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 1, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    When a stock rises over 28%, almost straight up, there will come a time when it sells off, at some point. There are investors in the market place who are not buy and hold-types. They know---even before they buy the stock---where they are going to sell it. When it reaches that "price target" they sell...no argiuing, no excuses---sell.

    They take their profits and go some place else to invest. They are NOT interested in what "could be"...they know that they have made a profit...money in the bank.

    This is the case, I believe, for NUAN as you see it.

    If there were other reasons, you would have seen a much bigger sell off in NUAN from June 24th thru the 29th. From the high to the low, NUAN has sold off a grand total of 6.4%---after a rise of almost 29%.

    I'd say that a fair-enough deal...wouldn't you?

    Watch the doughnut---not the hole.

  • Reply to

    Whats the problem ?

    by lvchgo5 Jul 1, 2015 1:41 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 1, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    What "problem" are you referring to?

    "If CI didn't think EPS were not going to move up strongly I do not think any of this happens..."

    What "this" are you so concerned about?

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jun 28, 2015 9:23 PM Flag

    NASDAQ - 66 points early Sunday evening.

    It will prove interesting to see how well ON will weather the storm...

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jun 28, 2015 9:06 PM Flag

    NASDAQ - 66 points so far Sunday evening.

    Watch to see how well NUAN responds under pressure...

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