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Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN) Message Board

opalockamishabob 116 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Sep 11, 2009
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  • opalockamishabob opalockamishabob 14 hours ago Flag

    Forgive me, but I would trade each of your 11 "facts" for just one, singular, cohesive reality.

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 26, 2014 5:19 PM Flag

    As I've mentioned previously, stocks that are "in play" or rumored to be so, are blown, tossed and turned by the prevailing winds, from either direction. So, if we were to put all that rumoraside, let's look a the chart for the past weeks close...

    I was very encouraged by the $.51 snap back from Friday's low. That was good to see. The "1.6" up vs down volume indicator is still intact; the acc/dis has gone from a "C-" to a "B-". Very positive move. NUAN is now entering its NINTH week above the 50 day m/a; this means that the institutional investors, the "big guns", are supporting the stock and are not capitulating or selling in high numbers.

    For the past week, NUAN was up almost 3%...but again, on disappointing volume. This may change the closer NUAN gets to disclosing earnings AND guidance. Volume has been declining since early July, confirming that the big guys are sticking to their program.

    The MACD is just now poking its head above the "0" line; this hasn't happened since September/October, 2012! Money flow is increasing.

    Looks good on paper, yes. NUAN has been derailed under similar circumstances, taking a very l-o-n-g time to get back on track. We'll just have to wait and see what happens on August 11th...

    Hope you're having a good weekend!

  • Reply to

    confused -- Again/still!!

    by uselessineustis Jul 25, 2014 3:41 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 25, 2014 11:59 PM Flag

    Is this a great country or what...?

  • Reply to

    7 more trading days after today...

    by onyxpig Jul 24, 2014 9:59 AM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 24, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    "do we come down...after being up for half the day?"

    Don't know, billy. Something that I have noticed since Friday is that NUAN has been accumulated in a very bullish fashion recently. The "up vs down" volume indicator is at a "1.6"...yesterday, it was "1.4". This is the short-term indicator [50 day m/a]. It's been a long time since the number has been this high and has risen this fast so soon...

    It could mean that the HFT's and day traders are loading up; running the stock up only to sell it [once again] as the earnings/guidance news is released on August 11. Make of it what you will...

    I don't believe that there will be any negative news released that would be a surprise the longs on this board. After all, how much worse could NUAN news get? The worst is already out---Ricci is here to stay. ;-}

    On the other hand, the news has plenty of room to get brighter, or at least, a spark of sunlight.

    BTW, today's volume is just 400K as I write this, so don't get too excited...

  • Reply to

    Relative strength to 56 ..extremely bullish

    by alex2cents Jul 23, 2014 7:57 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 23, 2014 9:35 PM Flag

    "Relative strength to 56..."

    That's funny, because Investors Daily has NQ's relative strength as "1"---dead l-a-s-t. Something else to consider...15% fewer institutional investors own NQ than did last quarter.

    Funny that...

  • Reply to

    Getting close to breakout territory

    by cmrexsne Jul 23, 2014 11:11 AM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 23, 2014 5:11 PM Flag

    but...pre tax margins are only 4% on a 188% debt to equity ratio.

    As a technician, if I were holding "HA", I would not be adding to my position here. I'd like to know a bit more about guidance; this could be a turn-around quarter or just a flash. If it is indeed a turn-around, the next earnings report [October 22nd +/-] will need to be superior to that of today's...after hours trading has HA up just a penny.

    Look at the chart.

    Yesterday, HA was trading at $13; had today's earnings not been exemplary, HA may have continued lower to test the $12.35 low of April 15th. The $14.40 area should provide any needed support, should cooler heads prevail and HA begins to consolidate...

    Just my $.03 worth...adjusted for inflation.

  • opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 21, 2014 9:50 PM Flag

    "looking" at a chart is one thing---INTERPRETING what it shows is quite another. Gather 'round boys and girls...

    First thing is that there is a tremendous amount of negative sentiment in this stock. If you are an IBD subscriber, go to their site and research NQ. You'll find that 13% FEWER institutional investing companies [mutual funds, insurance companies and pension funds, etc.] now own NQ.

    Why is that important? because 70% of a stocks movement is done by the enormous buying [and selling] power of these "big guns"...retail investors, you and me, account for just 30%.

    Secondly, the up vs down volume is at a v-e-r-y bearish "0.7"; this means that there is tremendous selling/trading of the stock and almost no buying. The HF traders and day traders are making out OK, I guess. If you can keep up with them, go for it!

    Thirdly, the MFI [money flow indicator] has leveled off and NQ's R/S is ranked dead last at "1". That means that 98% of the general market is performing better than NQ

    In short, I would not expect more 8% pops this week; this stock is being taken out to the woodshed..

    If you rode this stock all the way down from the $20 area, I'm sorry. If you don't own NQ...continue NOT owning it, unless you are a HFT or a day trader. Investors should steer clear until [if?] the dust settles, because NQ does not break out above the 50 day MA until it breeches $7.47.

    That's where major institutional investors will usually support a stock...certainly not at these levels.

  • Reply to

    Vote of confidence ?

    by mercshine Jul 17, 2014 1:23 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 19, 2014 7:16 PM Flag

    Correct you are, don.

    There is an SEC mandate, I believe that it is SEC Rule 10b5-1, which stipulates that "management" must set up a schedule for selling company shares which they own, MONTHS in advance.

    They cannot get up one morning and say, "I'm going to sell 50,000 shares of MRVL today!", or having "non-public" knowledge which can be beneficial to the trade.

  • Reply to

    CEO Orr should be FIRED ASAP !!!!!

    by pjinvestmentco Jul 16, 2014 6:14 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 19, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    pj...

    I share your frustration, but if [indeed] the BOD is nothing but a shill for the CEO, unless you get ALL of the BOD to either agree with you or can get EVERYONE of the BOD's fired, you are left with two options...

    1) sell ARUN; "cut bait" take the loss and learn from your mistakes.

    Or...

    2) sell the rips and buy the dips to t-r-y to get back to your initial cost basis.

    Failing that, #$%$ and moaning does nothing to better your circumstances, believe me. Been there---done that. You have got to think constructively about saving your hard-earned capital---in every way possible. I'm still learning.

  • opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 19, 2014 6:31 PM Flag

    "That's one reason I'll never be a buy and hold type of investor"

    Bill,

    Very well spoken!

    That one of the most difficult pieces of advise to follow. I am currently one who fell asleep at the wheel and have found myself down $10 per share, for the past year.

    Waiting for a stock to "rebound" to get back to even is a losers game. We retail investors have got to learn that, in many instances, our current holding[s] [if we are down in a big way] may n-e-v-e-r get back to the old highs!

    Somewhere in the archives, I posted that back in 1999 and 2200, I worked with a guy named "Jerry". He bought JDSU at $125 a share. Now, 14 years later, Jerry still is holding on to those shares, hoping that they will get back to the old highs!

    Don't be a Jerry!

    When you've got a 20% profit or so, TAKE IT! There are "technicals" where you can hold if your stock if goes up 20% in 4 weeks or less, but, for the most part take the profit when you have it.

    That's what the HFT's do, the day traders do, many of the pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies and big institutional investors do.

    Why shouldn't you??

  • Reply to

    official 3rd Quarter earnings release date--8/11

    by lvchgo5 Jul 18, 2014 9:15 AM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 18, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    Seems as though there will be no earnings "surprise"; according to I.B.D. the current quarter, next quarter, for the current year and into next year are all pointing down.

  • Reply to

    Will see $50 on Friday

    by berkshiredude Jul 17, 2014 4:45 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 17, 2014 5:52 PM Flag

    may not have to wait until Friday...it's $50.01 in A/H

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 16, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    The 21st century's version of Abbott and Costello.

    They talked about EBAY, NFLX, FDO, Warren Buffett, I wasted a full hour listening to nothing.

    Scott Wapner, you suck as an interviewer; far too obsequious.

    Wapner asked CI about what Carl does as a shareholder "advocate"; "...does it impact you holding the stock?" Carl says, "We don't really talk about stocks we own or don't own....if we own them and especially have a "13d" out...my lawyers would kill me..." [blah, blah, blah]

    What a #$%$ artist you are, Carl!!!

    We don't talk about what we own! What a stupid remark to make! From that point on, my socks began to turn brown from all the #$%$.

    So Carl, in effect "lawyer'd up"

    All Wapner had to do was to ask, "What's happening with Nuance Communications?" Carl would, no doubt have said, "I told you, I can't talk about it..." Instead, Wapner asked nothing...what a putz you are, Scott..

    Remember: you don't ask...you don't get.

    Carl, you suck at being humble.

  • If I heard correctly, he will appear around 4:30 eastern, 1:30 Pacific.

  • Reply to

    Boring...this is like waiting for grass to grow

    by putlovr Jul 9, 2014 3:42 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 15, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    The old stock market axiom, "Don't short a dull market" also applies to a dull "boring" stock...

  • opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 14, 2014 10:53 PM Flag

    Let's not forget the fact that since the "double bottom" in late April, IDTI has gone UP 28.3%! Most of the technical indicators I monitor are showing an overbought condition. IDTI may "consolidate" here sometime soon.

    There is some support in the $14.60---$14.80 area.

    If it does decline on low volume, don't be too concerned. Just keep an eye on the PERCENT of volume; if it starts to sell-off at 40% or more of normal, daily trading volume, be prepared to protect your profits.

  • opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 14, 2014 10:25 PM Flag

    Agreed, danorr. I did that once [followed a Jon Najarian "tip"] and the stock got wacked the following Monday.

    So, a word to the wise: learn as much as you can about your chosen stock[s] and the general market, as well as the industry group your stock[s] is/are in.

    Stay the hell away from analysts, brokerage houses, tv money shows, barber shop advise conversations, stock market gurus and newsletters with their cockamamie stock recommendations and advise. None of which have ever proven to me to be the least bit objective and only just slightly accurate.

    None of the above have ever had the retail investor's best interests at heart...ever.

    When things go south on you, all you get from them is a shoulder-shrug, then they offer you another "sure thing"..."can't lose"..."you're getting in on the ground floor", yada, yada, yada...

    Remember too, that there is a v-e-r-y good reason why CNBC calls the show "F-A-S-T- Money"...

    Just my $.03...adjusted for inflation.

  • Reply to

    NASDAQ A/H NUAN

    by opalockamishabob Jul 10, 2014 11:31 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 11, 2014 5:24 PM Flag

    billy,

    All of NUAN's internals have not moved since the last time earnings were disclosed. As you mentioned, the volume has been between 30% and 50% below normal this week.

    The chart shows that, with the double bottom of 7/1 and 7/10, a bounce could be anticipated, but with a stock exposed to the "rumor mill", the slightest thing can send it higher or into a tail-spin.

    The acc/dis indicator remains at a bullish "C+" and the up vs down indicator is a quite bullish "1.3". Also, NUAN is about 5 1/2% ABOVE its 50 day price moving average. This, after sustaining a loss of just 8% from the highs of $19.61 just two weeks ago.

    Lame duck [CEO] Captain Bligh will continue unabated on his chosen path into oblivion.

    We would love to see him hung from the yardarm, but would be satisfied if one of the crew [CI] would "run him through", so that we all could get on with the business of steering the "bounty" into a calmer sea and a m-u-c-h more prosperous voyage...

    Have a wonderful weekend, everyone.

  • Reply to

    NASDAQ A/H NUAN

    by opalockamishabob Jul 10, 2014 11:31 PM
    opalockamishabob opalockamishabob Jul 11, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    Don't start(!); I got enough pains in my neck already...

  • opalockamishabob by opalockamishabob Jul 10, 2014 11:31 PM Flag

    A brief look at the page will tell you that TWO "investors/traders" sold a grand total of sixty-six shares, bringing NUAN down $.19 to $18.02.

    Please tell me, won't you, what type of person(s) sells twenty five (25) shares and forty-one (41) shares?

    "I'm going to short 66 shares of NUAN right here and make a bundle..."

    I have no idea what the motivation is for such an aggressive display of "speculation"(!)

    If you do, won't you please explain this enigmatic behavior to me? Thank you.

ARUN
18.04-0.07(-0.39%)Jul 28 4:00 PMEDT

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