For me? No loss of enthusiasm, although I am not as sanguine as haschultz1.
There is a lot of fear in the markets; these markets can make a stock pop, only to take profits when the retail investor least expects it. You might think to yourself, "...at what point would I sell MXL on the way down?" Some may think about buying more the lower a stock goes. I've done that and in almost 30 years it has seldom worked to my advantage.
Basing is construed as indecision, in most cases. Can MXL go higher? Of course, but the opposite can also occur and the decline have nothing to do with how good a stock MXL is. I always look at the other side of the coin because some day that coin will land on the side we hadn't figured on. We've got to be prepared n-o-w, so when that does occur---and it will---you'll instinctively know what to do.
As always, watch the volume; how much volume? Where does the stock open and close? If it closes on higher than normal daily volume to the downside, particularly for a few days, that could spell trouble...
The MACD is within a few days of crossing over the signal line...I'm thinking another charge at the $20.98 high might be indicated. Again, MXL is a thinly-traded stock with daily volume a bit over 1 million. It doesn't take much---one way or another to move MXL. Today is a perfect example.
Well pig, we're at $16.23...up on tepid volume. There is much fear in the markets and, I assume, anyone who IS buying is not looking for stocks like NUAN...although the mutual fund ownership remains at the previously posted 9%. That being said, they may just be in for a short ride then sell, if NUAN should e-v-e-r get to the $17.60 area.
Money flow is up one day and out the next. The up vs down volume is "0.5", extremely bearish. From the $17.61 high, it's been a straight decline in money flow. without one inflow for that 2 week period! It appears as though a short term bottom is in place, all things being equal. There is some support for a capitulation argument, but no evidence of a turn around, obviously.
It's going to take a lot of something positive to get this stock moving UP to any appreciable degree...NUAN could be in a 10% trading range for months...or until that something positive manifests.
There is simply no reason to invest in NUAN.
Back in early May, 2015, the $16 area has been a basis of support---in fact, a total of 6 times.
A daily chart shows a good probability for a double bottom here, or very close. The volume has dried up, for the most part, the past 7 trading days; this combined with the MACD/signal change is positive.
Can NUAN fail on the 7th? Yes it can.
For those who are playing NUAN for a trade, I'd suggest looking at it here.
Just my $.03 worth...adjusted for inflation.
The producer's seeking "material" for a new series: "S.O.B.C.E.O.'s".
Currently accepting nominations: must be scorned/hated/despised and detested [is de-testicled a word?] by shareholders; avaricious, egregious, unprincipled, despicable, loathsome a plus!
"Icahn sure moved out quickly..."
We all should have. This was, indeed, the kiss of death. It may be a looong while before NUAN hits $19 again.
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The $18 area is dense with overhead supply all the way back to February; getting through that is where I feel investors should set their sites.. Unless NUAN begins to experience a lot of money flow in this area to overcome that resistance.
This is a good start, don't misunderstand me, but current indicators show that anything higher [at this rate of accumulation since the May 19 low] is a wish and a prayer for the short term without it. By "short term" I'm referring to a 4 to 6 week span.
"According to IBD's proprietary indicator, there has been a 7% change in funds owning NUAN this past quarter...up from the 3% the prior quarter."
A check of the IBD website this evening indicates a jump to 9%, displacing the 7% posted above...just 9 trading days ago. It can easily be mistaken as yet another "confirmation" of any one of numerous NUAN rumors of a buyout, which have floated [and sank] in these waters for nigh on 3 years now.
The real reason is because there is no momentum behind the volume at all.
A more likely scenario is that these purchases are off a v-e-r-y hard sell; reflecting NUAN's very low [bearish] R/S value of "19". Now, should this number appreciably multiply [and do so quickly into the 70's & 80's] there may be reason to acknowledge that something may be occurring. Until then, these purchases will be sold as soon as the institutions' price target[s] is/are achieved...
Since you asked...I keep 3 watch lists:
1) great earnings, sales, ROE, etc. All the indicators that most of the best performing stocks have.
2) stocks that are "basing" having gone sideways for some time..
3) stocks below their 50 or 200 day M/A [yes, like NUAN], at or close to a bounce off the lows.
List # 1---MXL [which I have a position in], WNC, MPW.
List # 2---RKUS, GPK,
List # 3---SWHC, HW
Hope this helps...let me know what you think.
Pig, Billy et.al.,
"...what stock would be good to roll all our shares in?"
If you're serious, I'd gladly post some of the better candidates on my watch list, if you wish...
From a March 21, 2016, Page #9, Time Magazine article on the company...
"$14,000,000.00 [$14 million dollars] is the value of LinkedIn's CEO [Jeff Weinens] annual stock package, which he distributed to employees to help boost morale, after a bleak earnings report."
So, hay stacks really do have needles...
The 14% drubbing NUAN sustained the last 22 trading days seems to have abated and perhaps, the putting in a temporary low is in the works. Added volume will be the surest way to confirm this. As posted earlier, NUAN has bounced from this $16 area four time this past year.
So what positives can on draw from this chart pattern!?
For one thing, down volume has slowed dramatically. So far, the RS has leveled off at a disdainful "20"---meaning that 79% of the general market is performing better than NUAN. However...
According to IBD's proprietary indicator, there has been a 7% change in funds owning NUAN this past quarter...up from the 3% the prior quarter. Be they value funds or tech funds looking for a bounce, it remains to be seen just how much of an impact their accumulation will generate.
As promised, I will post again when something---anything---of a positive, technical nature is shown in NUAN's chart.
I rely quite a bit on IBD's propitiatory indicators, both technical and fundamental. They are not complete, but they are very near so, so if I have any questions, I will do further DD.
I can tell you that, according to IBD, currently, there are "0" quarters of accelerating earnings, current quarters earnings EPS change is "just" 13%,..the best performing stocks will usually come in with 25%. A lot to ask of $1.7 billion cap MWA currently? Perhaps.
Sales % change last quarters was -2% and the 3 year sales growth rate was 2%. I don't have the IBD perameters in front of me, but I think sales should be 15% minimum.
The % change in funds owning MWA is a -3%. The percentage change in the number of funds owning a stock (latest reported quarter) from prior quarter. Finally, quarters of Increasing fund ownership is 0. Is mutual fund ownership on the rise? The number of consecutive quarters where fund ownership has increased is reflected in the above % number.
All other indicators are in the positive camp, as you alluded to. So, all things considered, a bit more institutional investment and a bit more in the sales would boost the stock considerable---according to the IBD indicators.
NUAN has been a tough lesson for me as well.
With current momentum, it is almost a given that NUAN will get close to [or eclipse] any of the 3 lows listed: August 24, 2015 at $15.92, Sept 29, 2015 at $16.04 or February 9 of this year at $16.15. The $16 area seems to be the area in which NUAN has halted its decline going back a year.
A bottom is typically [but not always] reached when two successive days of INcreased volume are experienced, after making a new low...sometimes within a day or two up to a week of each other.
The latest decline is similar to the one experienced from December, 30, 2015, so, just perhaps, we're getting close to a bottom here.
NUAN has bounced from this area on 2 occasions: August 24, 2015 and February 9, 2015 which amounted to a retracement of 24.9% and 21.3% respectively. Should that bounce percentage remain, it would bring NUAN, in the aggregate, from current levels to around $19.48.
The August, 2015 bounce took 4 months, bottom to top; the February, 2016 took less than a month...
Pretty convincing breakout, wouldn't you say? Almost 2.9 million shares traded...and up $.06 after hours. With no overhead resistance and a new 52 week high, there is still room to grow.
Any pullbacks should be on low volume, hopefully. Any consolidation that stays above the $19.10 level is normal, if/when it occur. Remember, MXL is up 19.4% since the May 6 low...that's almost a 20% pop in 6 trading days. Remarkable.
It's almost a given that there will be some profit taking as volume levels off. Be prepared.
Correct! IBD has just updated their stock check webpage. A couple of noticeable changes:
The "up vs down volume" indicator [A 50-day ratio that is derived by dividing total volume on up days by the total volume on down days. A ratio greater than 1.0 implies positive demand for a stock.] is v-e-r-y bearish at a "0.6"!
To balance that out, NUAN now has the percentage change in the number of funds owning a stock (latest reported quarter) from prior quarter to 6% from 3% just a few weeks ago.
We know that they are poised to sell as soon as NUAN reaches their price target, whatever that might be, but it is encouraging to see some accumulation, to this positive degree, at these lower levels.
Have a wonderful weekend!
MXL closed UP 4.66% for the day and 12.46% for the week on 8.2 million shares for this week; very impressive.!
Now the stock is within 4% of a new 52 week high. According to IBD's database, this is the 5th quarter of Increased fund ownership. let's not forget that MXL remains a thinly traded stock and it doesn't take a lot of shares to boost the stock higher, after all, it does sport a 1.24 beta
The up vs down volume indicator is at a moderately bullish 1.1, but the accumulation distribution indicator shows a more robust "B".
In the past, the Nov - Dec, 2015 double top, as well as this year's March - April double top attempt at new highs were met with defeat, only to rally once again.
Will it break through...and stay above...the April 4th $19.10 high, if it does? It will take this type of action for it to happen to be sure.
Have a wonderful weekend.
For the technicians among you, it may interest you to know that TSEM has put in a "triple bottom": February 12 @ $11.04, April 13 @ $11.06 and May 12 @ $11.04.
It's on my watch list.
Could TSEM go lower? Yes it could---anything's possible...this past week's volume was UP 42%, dragging TSEM down 4.17%
I'd agree with your synopsis on the chart pattern, but look closer...
There is quite a bit of support in the $15 area, don't you think?