No, she pretty much nailed it. You guys are pathetically desperate, knowing a partnership announcement is looming.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Only drops down towards $9 for the 25th (but with a strong upward bias at $9.70ish) - following week it is again at $10-plus.
As soon as MNKD appears on the RegSHO list, it can no longer legally be shorted. A partnership announcement will absolutely decimate the shorts here. We could actually see the share price just go vertical.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Good post rich. I think 10% to 12% is just the low hanging fruit. About 1 in 10 will be calling their physicians asking for Afrezza within the first 6 weeks of availability. I actually suspect that Afrezza may capture 20% of the market by end of year. Global adoption of course will lag.
Obviously you have under $25,000 in the account - If you have a joint account with say you as the primary and your wife as secondary, you might try and open a second account tonight with the primaries switched, call them Monday morning as soon as possible and request the complete account be switched from the restricted account to the new account (thus simply funding the new with the old). Some brokerages will make an immediate switch between accounts if both are held within their institution. If the primaries are changed, and possibly even if not, they might consider making an immediate switch but without the 'pattern day trading' restriction. Of course, if you could somehow manage to secure (possibly borrow from close friend, relative, etc.) and wire enough funds to get you above $25,000 day-trading limit, then the restriction automatically should be rescinded as soon as the wire posts to your account. Frequently wires received by your brokerage will post to your account almost immediately (depends on your brokerage).
*You learned a valuable lesson about stops and the games shorty can play.
*BTW - there is no guarantee that shorty won't pummel the open with naked shorts, if they are determined to hold the line, and there isn't an offsetting inst. effort at accumulation, it is possible you won't miss anything.
We know from numerous surveys and trial participant testimonials that this simply isn't accurate. Next Catalyst is of course partnership/partnerships being announced and then we likely have a number months before launch/and sales reports. Shorts have next to nothing left to base their FUD posts on.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Best of Luck. Personally, I have to abide by my trading rules and so have sig. reduced position (for the time being) and taken profits - but to each his own. I also can't think of a treatment/drug more 'deserving' of a clean approval, one destined by all accounts for multi-blockbuster status. And I can think of only one, near impossible to quantify, potential 'problem' - no need to go there though. Afrezza will be such a fitting crown jewel to highlight Al Mann's amazing life/achievements; hopefully, for investors and diabetics the world over, 'right' prevails and an amazing Mann finally win this one.
vc - you have answered your own question in a way. You stated "I can't afford yet another loss", - either you buy some combination of options to limit downside or you sell a very sizable portion of your holdings and move to the sidelines with your existing profits to await clarity. Remember, - 'When in Doubt Sit it Out', otherwise it is gambling friend.
Another factor is whether you have loved one's who will also be impacted were the FDA to once again do the 'almost' unimaginable (well, maybe not 'unimaginable for our FDA). Think back to the pain and self-incrimination of the previous hits from FDA's decisions re. MNKD/Afrezza. There is nothing wrong with taking profits, it is the difference between a prudent professional and an inexperienced or undisciplined retail yahoo. You think a risk-compliance officer at any hedge fund would even allow you to hold a bet into a situation whose outcome would potentially damage the firm's future ability to make profits?
Nobody knows what is 'right' for you, not exactly, but judging from your own statement, it seems the answer is pretty clear if you take out the emotion. You MUST, however, make the decision with conviction and agreement to yourself not to second guess yourself if the decision is positive and you miss out on significant profit - you make your decision because you are a disciplined trader/speculator, and you DON"T Look Back; there will be plenty of opportunity to re-enter your position with confidence once this binary event has run its course, and you walk away with a profit and with the ability to stay in the game - Always Protect your Base Capital and Never Never allow yourself to be exposed to a potential loss from which you would have a hard time recovering.
You said: "Now, let's look at MNKD - Diabetes market, and our place in it - potentially $3B annual Afreeza sales in 3 years."
$3B 'potential' in 3 years?? I think that is way low for a 'potential' 3-year annual revenue. A 20% US/Global market capture would give you in excess of $3B annual. Mind you the insulin market has been increasing over 10% yearly of late, and results from surveys, seem to indicate that new diabetics or those just transitioning from orals to insulin, will choose inhaled delivery (assuming equivalent efficacy, cost and safety) in percentages over 50%. My guess is Afrezza can capture 20% of a greatly expanding market by 2017, and will capture somewhere around 30% to 35% within 3 years of commercial launch. Now of course my estimations depend on no production bottlenecks, but by year-3, or within year-3 anyway, that should have been worked out with a BP partner. these estimates don't even factor in the distinct possibility that a growing percentage of pre-diabetics will be using Afrezza, again assuming availability, by year-3 to year-4.
BTW - other credible posters have claimed that those diabetics which transition to insulin therapy remain on it for an 'average' of 12 years; $1700 per year, for 12 years, is $204,000
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Yeah, I caught that. They were talking about VRTX & Big Cap Pharma and Melissa asked what they would take a chance on in the smaller cap area, that's when Najarian named MNKD, though he really didn't give much info as to the true potential, but did mention the upcoming FDA decision date.
This is the contact person handling this firestorm......you can also call M.D.Anderson President's office, but they will likely just refer you to Laura Sussman.
Unfortunately I was connected and don't have a direct contact number....
They can issue a joint-statement with M.D.Anderson where M.D.A. makes perfectly clear that the statements were a personal opinion of a doctor. They could also of course, censor him as well.
Just offering it for information, always good to know what the competition is doing.
Don't know, but likely not. Was just throwing it out there simply because it is good to always know what we are up against and the article happened to catch my attention.
A combination of a new insulin with its established Victoza therapy lowered blood-sugar to unprecedented levels and should be an important diabetes treatment once approved, Chief Science Officer Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen said.
Late-stage trial results presented at the American Diabetes Association in San Francisco showed that IDegLira, once-daily injection combining Tresiba, Novo Nordisk’s new insulin, and Victoza lowered blood sugar more than each medicine taken on its own, Novo said in an e-mail today.
“Whatever way you cut the data on IDegLira, it’s simply unprecedented in terms of efficacy,” Thomsen said by telephone. “We’ve looked at the data across spectrums, how long the duration of the disease is, and how overweight people are, and IDeglira simply just works in all these categories.”
The prospects for Tresiba and its combination with Victoza are critical for Bagsvaerd, Denmark-based Novo Nordisk, the world’s biggest insulin maker. Sales of Victoza, its biggest growth engine, are rising at a slower pace than in the past and the company suffered a setback last year when U.S. regulators rejected Tresiba, now sold in other countries, including Denmark, the U.K., Switzerland, Sweden, Mexico and Japan.
Results from the IDegLira extension trial show that at 52 weeks the combination medicine reduced HbA1c, a measure of blood-sugar concentration, by 1.8 percent from baseline, versus 1.4 percent for Tresiba and 1.2 percent for Victoza, Novo Nordisk said in the statement. The average HbA1c at the end of the trial was 6.4 percent for IDegLira, 6.9 percent for Tresiba and 7.1 percent for Victoza.
Novo Nordisk has already filed for approval of IDegLira in the European Union. The European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use is set to announce its opinion on the combination medicine “over the next couple of months,” Thomsen said during the interview.
Personally, considering the tax-loss carry forward to likely eliminate taxes for the first couple of years, and the already expensed insulin sufficient to produce $billions worth of product, I think the PCYC's P/S ration is more realistic. And you know, by 2018, MNKD will almost certainly have another product on the market. We could honestly be headed for a s/p closer to $200, if we aren't bought out well before then.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Oh well. Just seems why let shorty know he has another 6 weeks after FDA approval, why not keep the pressure on them? Just odd and imo imprudent - kind of indicates what I have suspected all along about MNKD management, that they are just about as clueless as they come as regards thinking before speaking. Guess when you get all your shares just given to you in option grants, then one's perspective can be pretty relaxed.
Likely this is the case with other brokerages as well. If FDA green lights us and Al announces a partnership at the same time, we could actually see a share price spike much higher than most here are expecting.