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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

oracle2015 52 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 30, 2015 5:31 PM Member since: Mar 15, 2001
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  • oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 30, 2015 5:31 PM Flag

    You are thinking about this in the correct manner in my opinion. Tail winds will start soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 30, 2015 4:29 PM Flag

    Looks like the management is too long in the tooth with a very green CEO who appears to be a son or grandson of the chairman. It looks like this company gives them a place to meet for coffee and augment their retirement plan.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • at 30 and 31. Without a total market pull back they will lose at expiration. They hedged at 34 and 35. What will a victory be ? How much ? Max Pain ? Seems out of whack for the risk but it is fun to watch it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • And booking new sales all the time. Earnings has made a nice move and with the strong backlog we should be selling for a better premium.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Going to breakout up or down ? Guessing up with candle formation but it is a guess. Market gravity has been somewhat an issue but should head back over 35 at the close.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    LOOKS LIKE THE BATTLE LINE HAS BEEN DRAWN AT 36

    by fabricone1 Mar 26, 2015 11:47 AM
    oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 26, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    I am staying long here but I think we will see more than 7 million traded today. Still room to the lower end targets. Will be more than $40 by year end. Book it.Better and safer return than a corporate bong by far.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Better sourcing opportunities and no overseas retail locations gives us a nice one way ticket up on this play. The economy while stronger is a long way from robust but with the most expensive items at $5 we are in a very good place going forward. It would be excellent in my opinion if they could announce an additional 10 new stores to the 80 area. This would have a very positive outcome on the total company performance. I can hardly wait to hear the call.Shorts better buckle up.A good call and the rush to get through the door as the big money flows in will be a nice feeling for the longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oracle2015 by oracle2015 Mar 24, 2015 11:28 PM Flag

    New store opening is working very well. No debt. Great future . Plenty of runway to grow new store count at 20-25 % a year and new stores return their investment in the first year of operation. I will be surprised if this company does not get bought out in the next 12-24 months. No debt is the key along with decent comps in comparison to overall USA retail. No negative impact from strong US Dollar. In fact margins can improve through more importing. I am looking forward to the call. Thanks to the long support here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    JUST SHORTED 5K MORE HERE.

    by agony.puzzymaria Mar 23, 2015 1:50 PM
    oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 23, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    Zachs has a strong buy 2 on this stock. Are you sure you know what you are doing ? The Street has it as one of 5 best bets for a short squeeze. I like your style lol.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FIVE….FUUUUUCCCCCCKKKKKK UUUUUUUUU.

    by agony.puzzymaria Mar 23, 2015 1:40 PM
    oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 23, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    The short vocabulary is what it is. Going to 37 very quickly . A surprise upside could fill the gap. Just sayin' keep those shorts coming. Fab you made a great call here. Thanks for your posts and thanks to the other longs for their posts as well. Great one, Mike, Retail Ex,and thanks for the comic relief from Alice and all her ID's. We are going to hurt you a little bit here. Seems that Kerrsdale is covering and hedging. They know they bit off more than they could handle. Good trade but got a little too greedy and now we get some back.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • We have earnings right around the corner with a key conference call. tick,,tock,,,tick ,,,tock,,,tick,,,tock.
    Going to be fine. Just fine. Lock and load.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Port shutdown will hurt FIVE just like it hurt WSM

    by rndyjensen Mar 20, 2015 10:51 AM
    oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 20, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    If you believe that nonsense open a new short ha ha. You think MKM Partners did not do their homework ?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 19, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    Good call. Very nice volume indicating a breakout is happening now. Need follow through tomorrow. That will cement a run to 60+. Stong dollar and cheap fuel and low PE against strong EPS provides fundamental tailwinds to go with your strong technical read.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Is spread across many segments which is an excellent sign of the growing strength of the company's growing strength as a key competitor. This is on top of an already all time record backlog, Very good news.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • This may be an excellent time to take on some debt. They really do not need it but it is an excellent time to consider accelerating their growth to perhaps 100 stores a year with 25% new markets and 75 % fill backs. Could ensure the long term dominance in their niche and debt is actually a lot cheaper than equity in this time frame. While I find no debt alluring on one hand the new store growth model is so strong that there is a compelling argument to drive more stores based on their ability to staff. Staffing is an issue and that explains the new board seat appointees . More Growth.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oracle2015 by oracle2015 Mar 14, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    I like the appointment of Kroger's Senior VP of Human Resources to the Board of Directors. This is a further display of management's focus on their aggressive growth plans. Continuing to grow the company by 20% in new square footage per year will be well supported by this kind of expertise at the Board of Director level.
    The Founders have left this company in excellent shape and fulfilled their primary responsibility to shareholders by developing an orderly succession plan of skilled and experienced key management led by the new CEO who has already taken up the reins in a very able manner. His background from Walmart will pave the way to even a better growth map in my opinion.

    The stock chart has improved dramatically and I expect all gaps to be filled before year end with a target price of 43.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Fine Ackman-$2,000,000,000 , OB needs the money

    by amgnjim Mar 14, 2015 1:32 PM
    oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 14, 2015 1:56 PM Flag

    Actually he may be fined if found liable 3X damages. Far more than 2 Billion. Ackman says he has not been contacted by the FBI. I believe him when he claims not to have been contacted yet. He no doubt will be the last and perhaps final part to be contacted. He and his lawyers are going to get to know the FBI and SEC very well. Very Well. Stock will recover to a fair value regardless of his rants.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Strong reversal is beginning.

    by fabricone1 Mar 12, 2015 2:27 PM
    oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 12, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    You are correct the MA isnow trading above the bottom of the Bollinger Band. Nice move.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • oracle2015 oracle2015 Mar 12, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    Because they missed the street by just .01 . Big over reaction but the stock was ahead of its self a bit but it has been over done now. In fact with no debt and strong results and everything I said can be verified as I only lie when I am on the Bear side like you do. The strength of any Bear position on a true growth company is obfuscation and you are good but you are only appealing to amateurs who trade on emotion . The facts are we were a bit over valued here .I sold at 43. I am now back in and expect it to go to 40. The company could be bought out or taken private for around $2 billion and that would be a good buy for a company with a proven growth model and no debt. Probably time to cover. It seems MKM Partners have nailed it again.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There is a strong high volume battle going on today here a real tug of war between the Bears and the Bulls. It looks like the Bear is getting a bit tired here. That is the stock and markets and individual stocks rise and fall sometimes on no news as you all know. What is really going on here is a company that has a huge runway of opportunity for continued strong growth is being beaten up over a very minor miss and the Bears have had a nice move.

    This is good as the basic business model is excellent and the company is opening another 70 stores this year at a run rate of around $2 million in revenue per copy. And profitable . In fact the average new store returns its investment in entirety in only 10 months. This is huge and that is why this stock is a table pounding buy at this level. The short side is over weighted and the stock has turned. keep in mind with bad weather and a weak retail economy the company has grown their earnings over 20% year over year. They have built a new distribution facility to service the next leg of growth. The economy is beginning to turn and Spring is coming look for growth to get back on a faster ramp as the economy is improving.
    The company has a nice kicker that will be gaining traction for growth and that is their retail sales on line will begin to gain traction adding incremental sales and profits. This is still a small regional play but the web sales will be a national thrust. The new markets in Texas will lead the way in developing a growth strategy that has already proven strength in the move west. Texas will have over 100 stores in the future.

    This company has no debt. That is correct. No debt and growing and you read an idiot short calling for bankruptcy . This is the desperation showing as they know the momentum is getting ready for a seismic shift . Invoices are being paid everyday to all vendors that have operated within agreed terms.

    The next generation of management is moving the company forward .E-commerce next.

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