Those are promising figures - if it gets turned on and operates near that peak rate, GGLR's 14% will earn about $4k per day, or $1.5m each year
Looks like they are out of cash, will have to sell the majority of the firm or the license in order for someone else to fund a fraccing attempt
Hah, I'd need some nice bonuses at work to get close to that number. It's also more shares than have traded in the last few months.
while watching the stock tank for the last 18 months has been a headache, I'm thankful for the amount of shares I'll been able to acquire at less than .03, and even less than .013 ... I believe things will clear up nicely in mid-2014, and I have a multi-year horizon for my holdings
This is looking like it'll be a significant gift from JPR to GGLR shareholders, with the 10% carried interest in the property. It's got a few historical wells, and the main challenge to production is mostly been logistics, and local security.
Range, plus at additional financing partner, along with JPR's new firm, and GGLR's 10% should be able to make a profit in about 2 years, once they are able to get started.
Israeli politicians really screwed this up. Likely lost the $1-2 billion Australian investment and likely lost the willingness of the partnership to spend 9 months and $250m seeking the super-deep 'oil layer' , which is only reachable with the new ship completed this summer, and now redirected to other projects. Might be a 5+ year setback to the israeli economy, loss of possible pharmaceutical and chip factory projects, which need reliable power
that bid has been moving up in the last few weeks, started at about 1.7m shares at .011 bid, has been moving up every few days, taking in a few hundred thousand shares each increase - there's another market maker that keeps inside this bid, and takes any sell orders, so the buyer isn't getting fills until they increase the bid again
With the big ask at .016, which has been there for 2 months, I guess they'll cross in the next 2 weeks
Key factors aren't settled yet - the selling price for the gas, and the monthly quantity that'll be delivered once ramped up. GSPC is asking for $12+/mmbtu, the April 2014 national price will be in the $8.2/mmbtu range -- I'd say 80% chance GSPC will only get the national price. How much and how quickly they'll ramp up, we won't know until late summer.
They are in underpromise/overdeliver mode on production. Very prudent given what the regulators are doing to Rel/BP in the KG-D6 block - since the main wells became water/sand clogged there, the production is down 75% from plan, and the regulators are saying REL/BP should drill more wells for free to return production to planned levels - nobody's budging, but from what I see BP is suffering the hardest, having paid up billions not long ago for a 20% stake in the property.
I'd give Deen Dayal 3-5 year range to break even on sunk costs and produce cash flow for GGLR. Once they do, they'll have a $120m+ property on the balance sheet, depreciating a gaining tax offsets vs the production cash flow.
I wonder if this changes the equation regarding GGR's participation in the full Phase 1 of KG-Onshore. GGR would still need to come up with several million $. Then in mid 2015 they'd have to start coming up with tens of millions of $ for Phase 2 onward.
interesting that Adira doubled yesterday on high volume. Wonder if they had something favorable happen in their lawsuit over the recent failed financing
The Netherland Sewell pre-drilling estimate reports seem to be mostly feel-good stories for compliance (3rd party evaluation) and useful for marketing
Unclear which is the more true story - the ILDE stance blaming the resource report on Myra/Sara or the Netherland Sewell reply that the Myra/Sara wells simply didn't drill to the deeper layer that they had suggested had the high probability of gas
More relevant is the news that the custom-built deep driller boat, commissioned for Leviathan oil-layer drilling, is still in port in Asia, and Noble scrapped plans to start that well near-term. Even further, Noble redeployed other drilling equipment to other projects, so they've signaled they are halting Leviathan investment while the Israeli politicians bicker over how to allocate the gas.
The oil layer drilling was budgeted $250m at that depth. Investment like that is not gong to happen unless the regulatory scheme is open to significant exports to markets with premium pricing
So, Tamar is going to produce, and a maybe one or two Leviathan wells for the next few years.
I think there might be one 'oil layer' well still in the planning, which would be relevant to the Myra/Sarah partners, and there is a 3D projection at the neighboring property, which might be published in 6-9 months
But the upside is huge - GGLR controls a 5% stake in Deen Dayal - which is one of the largest natural gas fields in the world, and has over $2 billion in sunk costs to build the infrastructure, and should start producing in the January-April 2014 timeframe
basically, all the valuable 'assets' are under specific contracts/leases in partnership with much larger firms that aren't very friendly - the partners in India, GSPC and OIL are waging battle to take GGLR's stake in those properties. However, so far GGLR's legal positions and contract rights have held up well. Unfortunately, the larger firms chose to delay development activities, increase costs, and try to starve GGLR out via insolvency.
If GGLR declares bankrupcy or if someone buys a controlling stake, the contracts/leases will become invalidated - there will be nothing to recover.
There is one property producing positive cash flow, and GGLR has cut down to about 3 part-time employees while waiting for a few of the other properties to move into production.
At this point, it's just waiting. GGLR will not publish the cash position or any other information that a regulator could use to invalidate a contract/lease. They are tight on cash, but unclear how tight. There are/were 'shareholder loans' - which may have been from ILDE (Israeli firm controlling 41% of shares) - these loans may have been settled by the cash-free conversion of a warrant which raised ILDE's stake from 32% to 41%
Interesting that it's in the press, before activities are completed. I still expect the field production to be delayed until April, for the new national price to be in effect -- unless the regulators somehow let GSPC sign contracts at a higher price than the national standard
Nice to see that the big bid - 1.6m shares - which had been at 0.011 for a few weeks, has been raised to 0.013 -- it got filled for about 120k shares by increasing the bid
There is still a 1.6m share offer at 0.016, which has been there for 3+ weeks
Looks like someone is slowly sweeping up any end of year tax-loss sales, this will go on for another 6 weeks
I don't expect any direct news on GGLR until maybe May
If enough time passes with this outstanding bill, and the bill is not disputable (the other partners paid their share, so I assume they are done and are happy to walk away) then the DGH would probably seek a lien on Tarapur cash flow
Once Tarapur-G gets going, the cash flow will substantially increase. The 3 year delay was resolved, and a mining lease was issued. But uncler if GSPC has turned on the well. I suppose indianpetro woul have a report in a few months
I hope JPR has a solution to this soon, possibly with the OIL settlement by mid-January
I've found that they won't show an 'all or none' instruction order, but will show a regular order. I usually try the all or none instruction and leave it for a bit, to see if a market maker will fill it.
The regular orders aren't much fun as the market makers will ping it for 1000 shares, and gain a commission - then I just have to hope a worthwhile volume follows before the end of the day.
When the market was down for GGLR mid-day, there were no bid/ask quotes
Looks like the quote system for GGLR on the OTC Pink system is down. Was giving a very wide .011 bid, .0144 ask this morning for an hour. I put in an 'all or none' order within that spread, and it never showed (that market doesn't seem to like all-or-none instructions), a bit later the bid/ask didn't seem to work. Maybe it'll get fixed overnight.
The bid a .011 was for about 1.6m shares