With current China profitability levels, Wynn should earn about $3/share instead of forecasted $4. The revenue decline is proportional to earnings decline. There is no way, it goes to $20 with $3share in earnings and new property coming on line in few months. China is a difficult place to do business and Wynn needs to bow and play humble to get things sorted out. I am looking for some resolution within six months and perhaps an upside of 30% from current levels.
Couple of months ago, I suggested that given China profit drop and uncertainty, one should look at Wynn from a different angle. Then I suggested $100. Not much has changed since the. Wynn stock is worth as a whole or broken down entity plus US profitability around $100. Shorts and other short term traders may drive it down below 100. I am watching and will buy between 95 and 100 and hld. China resolution and new property coming on line may provide huge upside in a year or so. Down side ifor now seems limited.