Berkshire Hathaway earnings are substantial enough to pay a 2 -3 percent dividend and reinvest a substantial amount of money in the on going company. With an actual dividend the price at which the shares trade can be higher to compete with other issues paying a similar dividend on the exchanges. The company is composed of self sustaining businesses that might actually be worth more broken up than kept together and once Warren is gone clearly who ever is in charge is going to be trained by Warren and who ever it is will ask the board "What would Warren do?" in every decision making process. If Warren were to suddenly be no more the vultures on wall street would be swooping in and buying on any sign of panic at the same time they were trying to created conditions of panic selling. Fortunately for the company the holders are not easy to panic and large shareowners including the bill and malinda gates trust are just going to go on holding. I am sick of hearing about the impending panic and ruin that would occur if Warren buffet quits as CEO or passes away because there is more than a 50 percent chance that the shares could become worth more just because the company could start paying out a substantial dividend to lock the perceived value in place or the company could be worth extraordinarily more if in the worst case it was liquidated piece by piece with the funds going to shareholders. That is incredibly unlikely. I like the Choice of Warren's farmer son as some one that will keep the family name in the Board Room. Everyone at the company is a buffetolgist. The panic selling scenario is possible but most likely complete nonsense. Oh and one more really extraordinary thing has to be considered. Unlike a company like Wal-Mart where 3 family members own substantial shares in the company and might be forced to sell if one passed away to pay taxes, Warren Buffet seems to have structured Berkshire to have non profit trusts just step in and remain the same.
I actually think it would be a perfect fit for Google to make it an "exchange" It might be a better buy than dumb real estate in Chelsie. I think Knight might be as to financial trading in some sense as Amazon is to books. Or as Amazon has become. It is also a perfect fit foro several other exchanges. You can go beyond the valuation to some degree on this company because it may not have more than 4 real competitors and trading volume probably will be going up on a world wide basis or will be consolodated the way it traditionally has been. You can find a lot of shuttered old regional stock exchanges. There may not be anyway around computer market access.
if someone accidently intercepts a cell phone call from a microsoft exec telling someone" microsoft is getting killed by linix" is it legal to find out about that?
whats more that pump and dump scheme goes on and on not one insider is buying up company shares more than the net selling. Idiot banks and brokers are buying the paper. The world's largest bucket shop seems to be a perpetual motion machine.
reading the signs of insider activity Microsoft is a special case. No one appears to have any long term bias there in accumulating more shares outside of issuing themselves new options. Microsoft may dominate where it does but it may also finally prove to be obsolete? One just dont know when. I still see little evidence of Microsoft actually having 40 plus billion dollars in cold hard cash...just lots of evidence of enron cash.
Its agrevating seeing so many mutual funds hold up to 5% of their net assets in this company stock given that the insiders are not too excited by their own existing issued stock.
Its almost unbelievable that Microsoft continues to get away with the big cash lie of having 40-60 billion dollars in CASH on their books! I have spoken with various business journal editors and they all take the microsoft data for grantid as a given. The problem is that when i call microsoft they cannot specify what exactly this "cash" is and they will not tell me if its in treasury bonds or att stock and other assets that cannot possibly be on their books as so much money! The true nature of this cash is the number one secret at microsoft and the company certainly is not putting up any cash to buy up their competitors or any interesting prospects but is instead applying the cash if it is cash to buying up stray options and / or retiring as many of these as possible. Thats not cash. It has no effect as cash. It will not be used as cash and therefore it probably is not CASH. Cash is king when it is CAsh! My bet now is that microsoft 40 billion dollars of cash on the books is bluff poker game cash or author anderson enron "cash". How long will they get away with this little 40 billion dollar accounting discrepency? What most people dont know about the emperor with no clothes is that he went about ruling the country naked for 50 years and no one noticed.
So Im wai
What the hell is going on in american capitalism. today i see the greenspan telling the world that capitalism is working by downgrading the market valuations of rogue companies....to me its blah blah blah. behind everyone of these shoddy reporting coporations is a god damn lawyer or fleat of lawyers and not one of these yet is held accountable...instead we see lawyers like giuiani seeming to come to the rescue of worldcom and cnbc dares to say "what could be his motive?" as if they cannot immagine the immediate self enrichment that can be achieved in taking over a company with 12 billion dollars in phoney accounting and one billion dollars in cash...hey that means that giuiani can write himself a host of new stock options for the good he does the company of lending it some of his honorable charms....to cover over past fraud and many bad vibes. Im for the liquidation of worldcom.
I think that if fifth third bank corp goes the way of world com, i shall look up the corporate lawyers behind it and file a major lawsuit against them asking for punative damages...especially the lawyers and law firms that are acting in fiduciary capacities. The reality is most large corporations do not act in regards to any contracts without holding the hands of various lawyers. the accountants have gotten a lot of blame but now its time to ferret out the lawyers who are really responsible.
think of this> without clever lawyering companies like say microsoft would not exist...and with out even more lawyers the same kind of fraud as enron and worldcom would have been discovered at microsoft with its phoney 40-50 billion dollars cash hoard. weird that the sec is worried about fitb when there should be a lot more questions at microsoft.....
should expense options like Microsoft? I think all public companies should be expensing the options.
but its a mystery to me that the sec is bearing down of fifth third and not demanding microsoft show the disposition of the ever never ending reported 40 to 60 billion in cash supposedly on hand there.
If fifth third is yet another worldcom or enron im pissed too...
its not average americans that are eating up the biggest lies but the likes of the managment of some of the biggest banks and pension funds who should know better. they should know a lot better. when micorsoft claims to have $40,000,000,000.00 in the bank as CASH....these people should be demanding a dividend in cash to prove it exists or demand the company buys something well worth 40 billion or use real cash as a down payment...not just company shares. Hey folks microsoft's bisiness model is exactly the same one used by enron and worldcom and tyco too...
Every year the options have not been expensed compounded the amount of "cash" on the balance sheet....but if you factor in the compounding of non expensed options the cash starts to disappear really quickly. microsoft probably has less than 7 billion in real cash resources and some of that is probably billed and not yet paid to the company?
I would love to see the list of banks holding the 40 billion micorosoft claims to have in cash....because i would not be surprised to see micorosft counting ATT shares it holds as a big negative as cash at the price they paid or more? hard to believe but possible. it is true that microsoft avoided paying income taxes with its options game but its hard to understand that this cash is not owed to retire the overhanging options that will be excercised.
i think the intrincsic value of micorsoft is probably around $11 dollars a share? Its really hard to value high tech 'assets' now a days...its realestate holdings are easier to appraise at the moment.
Forgiving a 15 million dollar loan related to non payment due to worthless expired options? Maybe its more than that? A payoff to keep mouth shut? forgiven loans at world com were looked at differently by the media not too long ago. The 40 billion dollars in cash micorsoft is said to have on hand appears to be purely accounting books money not real cash. The proof that i am correct will be the next major deal microsoft does in trying to make a major aquisition...you will see microsoft again offering to buy a company with its stock and not with anything near even 10 beillion in cash...maybe less! this is becasue the cash is all fabricated and counterfeit essentially? time will tell. Microsoft's pyramid shceme cant go on forever.
To the extent cash does exist at microsoft it going to be used canceling out the gigantic canopy of active options overhanging the company...the share buybacks are completely reltated to retiring options and maintaining a sustained stock price? Its not ironic...but the company outstanding shares will be worth more if the go down to intrinic value...far below $10 a share and all the options outstand beocme worthless?
but the downside to that is that the fraud will be exposed?
dont let microsoft become the shadow governement or the world's biggest porn distributor...its secret plans?
please help me crack this story wide open! its absolutely unprecidented that microsoft should be hoarding 40 billion us dollars in cash...as reported. I dont believe it. ??? i want to believe it ...but i want to see it first...show me the money!
this could be the biggest fraud in history!
do you know how much 40 billion dollars in cash is...after all corporate obligations expenses, no bonds or securties (as these are convertable to cash NOT CASH the way i learned accounting)
Lets talk cash on hand that really is cash after obligations are paid out....cash at market value of securities and bonds is legitimate...but it has to be approximately the 40 billion dollars as reported. have you seen it? do you believe it? please explain it to me...i want to learn how to do busineess the way microsoft does it ...if this is honest accounting!
here is what fourty billion dollars is like...say there are .
imagine ten million people with 4000 dollars in their pockets in crisp $20 bills...that is what microsoft is claiming?
how about $114.29 per person nationwide in cash in pocket? that is 350 million us citizens...i read data that most american have less than 80 dollars in cash in their pockets....
Microsoft needs to explain something to all the idiots who cannot read or analyze their amazing financial reports.....they are amazing....
it seems to me that microsoft has as many as 9 billion shares outstanding including options...that means that each share represents approximately $4.44 in cash? somebody set me streignt on this story so i can go to press with it!
Hey does anyone know where Microsoft is storing the 40 billion + dollars in cash they claim to have on hand right now? Its a mystery to me how a company with at most 7 billion dollars a year in "revenues" is able to retain this much cash with all ongoing expenses.?
Maybe you have read the annual reports and can figure it out? I cant...if ten million people in the northwest had at least 100 dollars in their pockets IN CASH...that would be more cash than is already in circulation here in washington and ORegon?
Something is fishy at microsoft and its not a fish!
most reporters have no idea how unprecidented in business 40 plus billion dollars in cash is...not even the french monarcy prior to the revolution had that kind of cash...and probably not even the spanish monarachy at the height of its American gold robbery had cash on hand like that....the microsoft story is so suspect it smells like a dead fish....!!!
where is the wall street journal on this story? hey fourty billion dollars in cash if its really cash and not imaginary fabricated cash is in a bank account..or 1000 bank accounts not in bonds or securties...those should not be on the books as cash?
so i want to see the cash....and microsoft does not seem to want to prove it to me...i made multiple requests and all the do is stonewall. cash reported in my book must be cash...OK microsoft , bill gates please respond...i will fly up to seattle and you can show me your savings account statements!
beware when a compnay makes money shorting its own shares in an options ponzi scheme and posts that as cash earnings...one has to come to the conclusion that they must be real genious's or super crooks? Do'nt worry bill gates would never go to jail he hired experts and they expertised his company. durring the big boom i started to believe the business school myth that somehow or other the business school graduates really were better managers than average on the street idiots who succeed in business...but now the truth is coming out with the type of thing we see happening at qwest --these professionals are high paid paracytes. Microsoft is a huge pile of
Yahoo says there are 5.2 billion shares issued...it does not say percisely how many options might be exercised...there are quite a lot of them and a lot of employees who recently got burned not excercising them but paying taxes on em. at 5.2 billion shares is $7.69 per share. But what if this cash is profoma cash? where is microsoft keeping all this cash? in treasury bonds? The options structure at microsoft is debt and dillution inspite of what looks like a clean balance sheet with no debt.
book value of microsoft could be anything under $3 a share if the cash is funny money cash. Its easier to figure out what tyco or qwest is worth than microsoft. It should be trading below $10 a share soon.
being a very curious person i would like a financial "tour" of microsoft...i would even sign a confidentiality agreement to see their bank account statements proving that the cash is not good will cash or receivables or something else? If the cash is real and there are no overhanging options then maybe microsoft has an intrinisic value around $20? with its present assets and earning power...but something is fishy there is microsoft land.
There is a lot of cash on Microsoft's Balance sheet. See the Yahoo profile. I know what cash is on my balance sheet....so i suppose that there are corporate bank accounts or money market funds where one can see all of this cash? Rhumors have it that microsofts accounting may be cooked..worse than enron's. So if the booked earnings are not fabricated than they should be able to show me at least ten billion dollars of cash on statements as of their last report right? call the company and ask to see this "CASH" I cant see why a shareholder or a reporter cant get access to see cash on hand statements...its not supposed to be a secret.
What would happen if it were revealed that Microsoft's cash balance on its balance sheet does not exist....and that its earnings over a period of years also dont exist. It will be a much worse mess than enron or qwest. You can call the company's shareholder services office and ask to see bank statements showing the existence of the cash on the balance sheet...if they cant come up with such bank statements then where the hell is the cash? A figment of accounting? ten billion dollars of cash on my balance sheets means i have cash...short term check writing cash in banks...OK what about 37 billion in cash? where does microsoft keep all of this cash? is it fictional cash? Hey that's a whale of an enron if its funny money. The zero debt on the books of microsoft is apparently also fictional because the employees are being paid in stock options. Too many of these are outstanding??? the float? Im not an accountant but when i see a company has cash...i want them to show me the cash.
Bill gates show me the cash!
Look at Ibm's drop today. Funny accounting is out and there are yet to be many announcments of bad mangagment write offs in lots of companies. compaq is not an asset compared to other possible aquisitions.
Carly is making an imperial act here and not a sensible one. Walter knows the company much better than Carly.
is this company an accident ready to happen? according to a financial analyist and cpa, a mr bill parish at:
says that citicorp is such an accident waiting to happen. Is citicorp financially unsound in any way shape or form? well at the moment it would not be from as of yet bad assets but from a financial accounting practice loophole that amounts to blatant fraud according to this report...its cause for alarm? Well after seeing cnbc taut cisco as a bell weather and amazon too not too long ago...i can believe the imposible.....
Are the accounting irregularies really this bad at Microsoft? well ask yourself why CNBC is fond of calling Cisco a "Bell Weather"
what the hell does that mean?
Cicso did use the same accounting loopholes and pracitices as microsoft...so why not the same ultimate results....
I kind of disagree that boeing was forced out of seattle by fraud at microsoft....that sounds like a streach...no doubt seatlle has been a BOOM TOWN like Palo 'Alto...silicon valley... etc... so fraud might be too strong a word for whats been going on at microsoft.....but strangely most ponzi schemes really are run by fairly innocent naieve people in the sense that most cant figure out the math given the blindness of euphoria.
Its not clear to me that all con artists are aware that they are perpetrating a fraud....because blinding by euphoria of seeming infinite geometic cash flow can really blunt reason and the analylical senses...so at least gates has a defense in court should microsoft melt down completely.
let me know what you think....mr parish could be wrong....but one has to wonder. Im actually more concerned with his analysis of citibank/ travelers corp.....because the financial reprocussions of citibank going down means a major financial meltdown worldwide. Too big to fail comes to mind from the fed reserve with citibank not with microsoft....too big to fail means disaster.
Its been written up in bloomberg and elsewhere. Im not sure that the analysis accusing bill gates of outright fraud is appropriate as the financial accounting loopholes do sem to be legal?
But the articles by Bill Parish do seem pretty credible--especially in the case of Amazon.com and Cisco...so why not microsoft and intel too?
to read more goto:
decide for yourself. Im concerned about citibank too after reading his warnings.
warranting further investigation as risks of this dire nature are not worth taking as "investiments. Imagine Microsoft selling for less than six dollars a share that means a dow jones industiral average below 3000?
The problem with financial fraud as parson describes is that no one believes it untill its too late. Read about the southseas bubble. the microsoft bubble would be equally disasterous for the entire us economy.....perhaps this company is overly analysized by optimists.
first given the reality that microsoft is overstating real earnings and is operating at a loss explains why gates is buying value companies for his own person portfolios and not more microsoft shares.
and second it means that we have a very dangerous ongoing popular delusion
and third if microsoft goes the way of cisco and amzaon sooner or later....how do the gurus re value it? 20 times earnings ? ten times? 5 times? Warren buffet is not talking the risk of supporting the price level of any company that i know of....one of his tricks of trade....he lets the market support the values based on preceptions...thats key to understanding why microsoft is especially vulernable if its financial house of cards gets hits by a breeze of fresh air.
If microsoft is really a bag of hot air it might not be worth 5 bucks a share in the marketplace.....and if happens what are the assets of this company? techy geeks who get paid in wrothless stock options for which they owe taxes on? rats will jump ship quickly. when you see the rats start to jump...no start selling now at 60?
How does one value one share of KO over the next ten years at it current ability to generate the next ten years of income? if you were to do a projection what would it look like? Do you start by compounding return on equity and than factor in a range of future discount rates? ignore the discount rate problem? is cokes equity about 4 dollar now or 8 ? 12? 24? It seems that good will is already factored into the price in a big way? which stock market guide or table is most accurate in making assessement of cokes true equity value...? if coke's equity per share is only six dollars and its price is seventy dollars how can that pay off in ten years as a better than average investment.....why is this still a darling under the circumstances? how does pepsi compare? is pepsi the better value it appears to be?