Last year all these " Experts " all unanimously said " The bottom was in " that for " 15, 16, 17 and most of 18 rates would recover !!!!!!!
They never saw anything coming till after it came.....
So don't expect these very same no-it-alls to predict any recovery till well into it.....as if a blind man could not do that!!!!!
The only thing I can think of is that
The ports are clouded with oil delivery ships with long lines to drop off that cheap oil and the receiving ports have no room for capes with drybulk.
I am hoping that when all the oil reserves are busting and full we can play make up on cape type deliveries of such products.
only problem with this article is DRYS 3 business are not all at cycle lows.......Business # 3 oil delivery is at a cycle peak
So what kind of credibility does this writer now have
If oil gets back to 75 to 85 within 6 months or so....ORIG will be fine.....if rate pick up drys will be fine....if this happens 2 or 3 or even 4 can happen rapidly
I see it as zero or 3 or higher............it all depends on survival
All the copy I have read this year was Panas were ordered large and Capes the lowest orders in years very very low Cape orders as I understand.
So I feel it has nothing to do with a new oversupply of Capes
The Capes on the BDI
I think oil will stableize in the 70 to 80 range and ORIG will be fine long term
I think DRYS is fine for the next 2 to 3 QTRS all things being equal
I did read that China shut down a lot of factories to show clean blue skies to important visitors at present
But it is very low and that is what is making me uncomfortable
any thoughts of an intelligent nature....( that lets most of you out ) no sarcasm please
yesterday I read a story that China has closed down a bunch of factories until a visit by out of country dignitaries are visiting to promote blue skies...
Just a hope at this point
your math is poor
12772 - 2087 = 10685.....not 9629
and for the record capes can be zero today if none are charted
if the charters come in the true rates return and can climb 10,000...15,000...20,000 in a matter of days in demand
just not ordering them this past 2 weeks
if it was worth 5
5 x .63 = 3.15 and with the 334 cash raised plus .50 = 3.65 all things equal
way way under valued right now.....people get very negative with dilution....stock currently broken.....we need one or two good earning reports
If shipping picks up next year all may be forgiven
I once had 300,000 shares of SIRI and Mel C issued several billion shares to john Malone from Direct TV for a 350 million dollar bride loan with a 35 million dollar fee
SIRI went to 5 cents.......I held out for a double at 76 cents ( owned them for 36 cents) after that they went to 4 bucks 2/3 years later .....who knew..... I was so happy to get out with a double
thinking back 300,000 x 4 = 1,200,000 dollars for a 96,000 investment ....who new?????
Same can happen with DRYS.....if shipping go way up next year and the year after...DRYS can be high single digits easily......all you need is full confidence restored
WHO KNEW.....WHO CAN KNOW.....only time will tell
If GE so chooses he can not only be debt free but have a boat load of cash in the bank too
1.56 billion of debt..........minus 334 million for stock sale= 1.226 billion of debt.....MLP will bring 180 million plus 20 from cash on hand pay off bridge loan with AMB = 1.026 billion of debt....convert 8.8 million shares to ORIG for 120 million in debt next....= 906 million in debt.....IPO the oil Tankers while they are hot as a pistol for 300 million and remove the 300 million of debt they hold
so 906- 300 and - 300 = 306 million in debt
Then sell remaining shares of ORIG to EXXON or BP who cares for 16 to 17 per and get 78.8 million - 8.8 converted or 70 million x 17 = 1.2 billion
1.2 billion - 306 million = 894 million in the bank
So Technically DRYS is debt free with 894 million cash on hand
Maybe GE should hire me as CFO
Capes don't matter this qtr or next
Panas at 9k are substantially better than last qtr at 3 to 6k
Oil tankers are on fire$$$$$$$
ORIG will have the best next 3 qtrs. on record$$$$$$$$$
the Feb earnings report for 4th qtr will be a very good report as will the next 2 most likely
Oil will stabilize.. ... ORIG will be fine
World Economies are doing everthing to pick things up......this is the Storm after the dark....in a few months I should think all will be fine and DRYS and ORIG will be fine too
Stop all the moaning and crying and griping and just chill out.....
They have always been what they have always been
if a rich find pumps out a lot of easy oil it becomes cheaper
these ships are alway running and burning a ton of diesel fuel
now 37% percent cheaper every day
maybe a 20% detraction in day rate is offset by 37% decrease in fuel costs
why are they higher
rig in place.....same crew...same depreciation....same insurance as it has always been in UDW can cheaply get out of the way in a hurricane as opposed to fixed driller
so if they can take out oil at 30 to 40 in a rich pumping finrather than 60 why are costs higher
once the well is discovered and pumping commences it is a factor of how rich the well is and how much can be pumped
UDW can also dig and pump a very rich well